S&P/ASX 200 lifts, Brent crusde tops tops $US60, Vocus surges on takeover
Brent oil prices shot past $US60 a barrel for the first time in more than a year, while Australia’s sharemarket rose strongly.
- Treasury Wine Estates says ‘no demerger’
- Vocus gets $3.4bn takeover offer
- China’s economy weathering Covid fallout
Welcome to the Trading Day blog for Monday, February 8. Australia’s hit fresh 11-month highs and closed up 0.6 per cent as US futures gains added to positive leads from Wall Street and Vocus surges on a takeover bid from MIRA.
7.55pm: Oil shoots past $US60
Brent oil prices shot past $60 a barrel for the first time in more than a year on Monday as investors grow increasingly optimistic about demand as the global economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.
The commodity climbed 1.26 per cent to $US60.19 a barrel as asset markets rallied on the back of vaccine rollouts, slowing virus infections and hopes that Joe Biden’s huge stimulus proposal will be passed by US lawmakers.
AFP
7.37pm US new cases drop below 100,000
Newly reported coronavirus cases in the US fell below 100,000 for the first time this year, and hospitalizations continued to decline, as vaccination rollouts picked up speed.
The US reported just under 87,000 new coronavirus cases for Sunday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and published early Monday. The data may update later. Overall, more than 27 million people in the U.S. have tested positive for Covid-19 since the pandemic began, accounting for more than a quarter of all confirmed cases world-wide, according to Johns Hopkins data.
Hospitalizations because of Covid-19 fell to 81,439 as of Sunday, marking the 26th consecutive daily decline, according to the Covid Tracking Project. The number of Covid-19 patients requiring treatment in intensive care units also fell. As of Sunday, there were 16,616 Covid-19 patients in ICUs across the country, the lowest level since Nov. 19, according to the Covid Tracking Project.
The U.S. also reported its lowest daily death toll from the disease since the beginning of the year. The country added more than 1,200 fatalities to the death toll, bringing the total to more than 463,000, according to Johns Hopkins.
While supplies of Covid-19 vaccines are still limited, states are ramping up vaccinations. About 9.5% of the U.S. population has been given at least one dose. The rates vary from state to state, from roughly 6% of the population in Alabama to more than 12% in Alaska, according to data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
There were an average of 1.1 million doses administered daily in the U.S. for the week ending Feb. 6. That is more than double the average of 433,000 daily a month earlier.
Dow Jones Newswires
6.38pm: Softbank profits soar
SoftBank Group on Monday said net profit rocketed to $11.1 billion in the third quarter as stock rallies and asset sales helped it solidify its recovery.
Net profit for October-December hit 1,171.9 billion yen, more than 21 times higher than the 55.0 billion yen reported a year earlier, the conglomerate said.
Despite the results, it said it would not provide “forecasts of consolidated results of operations as they are difficult to project due to numerous uncertainties affecting earnings”.
But the economic crisis that has accompanied the coronavirus pandemic has worked largely in SoftBank’s favour, with rallies in tech stocks it owns and rising valuations for firms in its portfolio suited to the era, including food delivery.
SoftBank reported a nearly $9 billion net loss in the previous full fiscal year, but has quickly returned to the black.
Founder Masayoshi Son, who has transformed the telecoms company into an investment and tech behemoth, has battled critics of his commitment to sometimes-troubled start-ups, and brushed aside doubts over a massive asset sale programme.
SoftBank has stakes in some of Silicon Valley’s hottest start-ups through its $100 billion Vision Fund.
And Son has consistently backed the firm’s worth, insisting its stock has been undervalued and its fundamentals remain strong despite wobbles including over office-sharing start-up WeWork.
AFP
David Ross 6.33pm: Amazon AU losses continue
Amazon Australia has continued a run of losses despite more than doubling its local sales to more than $1bn.
Despite the huge growth Amazon Australia’s results revealed the company still closed the year with a $3.8m loss, the according to the accounts lodge with the corporate regulator.
The accounts also revealed that Amazon’s Seattle-headquartered parent injected $210m into the company during the year in the form of new shares to help fund its expansion.
Revenue from Amazon’s online stores lead the charge in its 2020 results, delivering $511m. Services, which includes revenue from third parties selling on the Amazon platform and warehouses, more than doubled to $126m in net sales. Total sales came in at $1.12bn, up from $562.1m a year earlier.
Amazon’s recent consumer trends report shows its customers piled into toilet paper, face masks, Lego, Nintendo Switch gamingconsoles, in 2020.
While Huggies nappies lead the platform’s subscription service, followed by baby wipes.
But inventories across the group have barely moved in the face of the burgeoning business and expansion of Amazon Australia’s footprint.
Amazon Australia, which employs, nearly 1000 people, also appears to be riding a wave of unredeemed gift cards, with almost $17m sitting on the company’s balance sheet.
4.35pm: US, Japan power ASX lift
Australia’s sharemarket rose strongly as US futures gains and a surging Japanese market added to strong offshore leads.
The S&P/ASX 200 closed up 40 points or 0.6pc at 6880.7 points - its highest daily close since Feb 25th - after hitting an 11-month intraday-basis high of 6901.
That follows a 4.6% dip on recent derisking by hedge funds, followed by a 3.5% rise last week - its strongest week since early November.
After the S&P 500 rose 0.6% on Friday - as weak jobs data added to the case for major US fiscal stimulus - S&P 500 futures added 0.4% as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pressed the case for Congress to approve President Biden’s $US1.9tn stimulus plan.
Asian markets ran with the positive leads from Wall Street, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index surging 2% after breaking above 29,000 points for the first time since 1990.
The local bourse finished about 20 points off its intraday high after drifting down from mid-afternoon then losing about 12 points in the closing match, with banks coming off their highs.
But while CBA stalled before its results on Wednesday, Westpac rose 1.4% and NAB gained 0.9%.
Outperforming sectors included Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Communications, Tech and Staples.
BHP rose 2.4% , Rio Tinto rose 3.4% and Fortescue gained 2.1% as Citi raised earnings estimates for iron ore miners.
Wesfarmers rose 1%, Vocus surged 13% on an takeover bid from MIRA, and Zip Co surged 13% ahead of its US roadshow.
Lunar New Year holidays are set to slow the market from Thursday.
David Ross 4.15pm: Credit card balances rising
The pandemic appears to have turned a corner if credit card data is anything to go by, with total card balances accruing interest recording a $205m rise, the second month in a row.
The data from the Reserve Bank of Australia comes amid a years-long trend that has seen Australia’s pay down credit card balances hand over fist.
The December rise, while reflecting an overall Christmas-powered jump in spending, up $1.81bn on November, was well down on the year before.
Australia’s pandemic Christmas spending was down 26 per cent on the same time in 2019.
The $205m rise in December came after a $199.2m rise in November.
Prior to the current two month run, the last time Australia recorded an increase in credit card balances accruing interest was June 2019, with the same phenomena repeated in June 2018.
RateCity research director Sally Tindall said the two-month rise was concerning and may reflect a broader turnaround in Australian’s spending habits.
“We’re so used to writing up data that said that people were getting on top of their credit card debt because they were and they have,” she said.
“The concern is the rise could keep going people will go and revert back with people racking up debt on their credit cards.”
Bridget Carter 3.34pm: JPM reboots equities team
JPMorgan has named Simone Haslinger and Jonas Troeber as the co-heads of equity capital markets for Australia and New Zealand.
It follows the departure of its co-head of investment banking Jabe Jerram and ECM head Dyson Bowditch to Barrenjoey Capital Partners.
Other more junior staff at JPMorgan have recently jumped ship to Barrenjoey.
Read more:JPM reshuffles equities team
3.30pm: Favourable short-term trends for banks: Macquarie
Macquarie’s Victor German sees favorable short-term trends giving “ongoing support” for Australian banks share prices despite “longer-term headwinds.”
Sentiment shifted positively in the December quarter, with domestic institutional investors closing underweight positions in the banks. And while retail investors were net sellers as share prices increased, “rising dividends are likely to spur their interest in 2021,” he says.
While bank valuations are “looking stretched”, Mr German sees favourable macroeconomic tailwinds, rising property prices, improving deposit margins and reducing impairment charges supporting bank shares.
“Australian banks remain relatively expensive in the global context, and unsurprisingly we are seeing more interest from the domestic investor base,” he says.
“We expect retail to resume buying of banks in 2021 as banks raise their dividends and retail investors resume their search for yield in the environment of zero deposit rates.”
Domestic institutional investors continued to close their underweights, with NAB remaining the largest active position, followed by ANZ.
Banks are mostly outperforming today with Westpac up 1.7% and NAB up 1.1%.
Bridget Carter 2.51pm: MIRA taps Morgan Stanley for Vocus
Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets has tapped Morgan Stanley for its $3.4 billion efforts to buy Vocus Group.
Vocus, meanwhile, is working with Credit Suisse.
Vocus released a statement to the market on Monday saying that MIRA had offered $5.50 per share for the business, subject to conditions, including due diligence and funding and has been granted access to due diligence by the company to enable MIRA to potentially put forward a binding proposal.
It comes as Vocus has plans afoot to launch an initial public offering for its New Zealand operations, which could fetch as much as $700m.
Working on that transaction has been Goldman Sachs, Jarden and Craig’s.
Elise Shaw 2.49pm: All Ordinaries close to record high
CommSec is tweeting that the All Ordinaries incex is 78 points from its record high.
At 7177, it’s the highest the index has been since February 21.
All Ordinaries now at 7,177 points - highest since February 21 - the day after the market hit record highs. All Ords is 78pts from record high#ausbiz #ausecon #commsec @CommSec
— CommSec (@CommSec) February 8, 2021
Ben Wilmot 2.23pm: REA Group model gets broker backing
Online property classified site REA Group is expected to benefit from a rise in listings and a shift in the mix of products it sells as Victoria comes out of lockdown and Melbourne’s property market picks up.
REA last week reported a 13 per cent jump in net profit to $172.1m and declared itself well-placed to capitalise on expected growth in residential property, with more activity expected as home prices and listings increase and more vendors cash in.
The impact of the pandemic hurt the first-half result but this is expected to recede as vaccines are rolled out, the economy recovers and low interest rates drive the residential property market.
The company was continuing to show both positive revenue growth and expense declines, Macquarie analysts said, noting that earnings quality was solid with upgrades expected as Melbourne is unlocked.
A material improvement in the residential markets will also benefit REA Group but Macquarie said at a 40 times earnings multiple they said this was fully priced into the stock and kept its neutral rating.
UBS analysts kept their neutral rating but lifted their valuation from $155 to $133 primarily to reflect higher listing assumptions from fiscal 2023 onwards.
They said that while January listings had appeared to be flat, they likely accelerated in the back end.
Eli Greenblat 2.00pm: Woolies to invest $50m in team skills build
Woolworths says it will invest more than $50 million over the next three years to help equip its team with new skills and capabilities for the retail industry of the future that is expected to be dominated by disruptive technological forces.
Called the ‘Woolworths Future of Work Fund’, it is designed to help improve the skills, reskill and redeploy team members impacted by industry disruption and technological change. It will also underpin the launch of an online learning platform to offer team members easily accessible training, apprenticeship and mentoring support across Australia.
The Fund is expected to support training for more than 60,000 Woolworths team members over three years across its store and e-commerce operations, supply chain network and support offices.
Woolworths Group chief executive Brad Banducci said: “Around the globe, retail is changing at the fastest pace we’ve seen in many decades.
“Technological advances in automation, predictive analytics, AI and cloud computing are making core retail processes much faster and more efficient than ever before.
“The Future of Work Fund is designed to equip our team members with new skills and capabilities that will not only serve their career within Woolworths, but across a number of industries.”
Elise Shaw 1.44pm: Car prices soar as demand continues
Both used and new vehicle prices continue to soar, notes CommSec chief economist Craig James.
“The latest data shows that prices of used vehicles are up almost 36 per cent over the year – the biggest gain in over 21 years.
“Supplies of vehicles are still disrupted by Covid-driven production delays. In particular, car makers are finding it hard to secure parts like semi-conductors.
“Demand for vehicles remains strong as people increasingly prefer to drive themselves rather than relying on public transport – especially locally with reports of some services being cut during the pandemic.
“Darwin remains the surprising winner of the title of cheapest capital city for fuel. According to MotorMouth, unleaded petrol in Darwin today is around 16c a litre cheaper than either Sydney or Melbourne. Darwin doesn’t have a discounting cycle, raising further questions on the value of the practice,” says James.
“Motorists will need to get used to dearer petrol prices with global oil prices at 12-month highs. The saving grace for motorists is that the Aussie dollar is 10c higher than a year ago versus the US dollar, keeping down import prices.”
Robert Gottliebsen 1.31pm: Landlord crisis to also force up rents
Around Australia a significant proportion of the over two million landlords are on the edge of their seats. For most of the last year their tenants have been able to defer their rent obligations.
But, by the end of March, most of the COVID-19 moratoriums end and the landlords will discover whether their tenants can pay the back rent.
In the case of dwellings the multitude of Australians who have been engaged in negative gearing already suspect that their tenants will walk away, leaving them out of pocket.
Add that to the ongoing harsher landlord rules and many will decide to sell their property or leave it vacant rather than risk playing in the landlord-tenant jungle. Either way the shortage of rental accommodation, which was explained in The Weekend Australian by Katrina Grace Kelly, is going to get a lot worse post COVID-19. In many areas rents will rise sharply.
Landlords owning houses will normally have enjoyed a rise in the value of their property to compensate for any income loss but apartments in most situations have not fared as well. And those renting shops are now fearful that they have tenants, who have been surviving on government aid programs plus bankruptcy protection, who are in fact zombie companies. Like apartment dwellers, unless the shop can be converted to another use, the real estate in many areas has fallen in value.
The economics of being a landlord will be challenged by many property owners.
1.17pm: China’s economy ‘not out of the woods'
China weathered the economic fallout from Covid-19 better than any other major country, and economists are predicting a bigger snapback this year.
But analysts say the world’s second-largest economy also needs to address an array of challenges to get onto a more-sustainable growth trajectory and help the world fully rebound.
China’s job market remains fragile. Consumer spending hasn’t kept pace with the broader recovery in economic output. Debt levels, already a problem before the pandemic, grew at their fastest pace in more than a decade during the first nine months of 2020, while asset bubbles in stocks and real estate kept growing. China’s central bank faces a tricky balance between reining in stimulus without causing growth to sputter.
The Wall Street Journal
1.01pm: Covid winners face muted reaction: Macquarie
Macquarie’s Australian equity strategist, Matt Brooks, is tipping a “more muted price reaction” to positive earnings surprises from “Covid winners” this earnings season.
Interestingly in the US last week, 82% of “Covid winners” beat on EPS compared to just 50% of “Covid losers” which beat, but on average, the Covid winners underperformed after their results while Covid losers outperformed whether they beat or missed.
Mr Brooks points to the US retail sector as an example of this dynamic, since of the five that have reported, there were four beats, with one in-line and no misses, but all five underperformed the day after results.
In Australia, with international borders still closed and an improving housing market, consumer spending on home goods remained strong in 2021, with Temple & Webster sales doubling in January and Nick Scali’s sales up almost 50pc.
“We think other discretionary stocks with home goods (like) Wesfarmers, Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi or auto (like) Babcor, Super Retail and AP Eagers exposure call out strong comparisons in January, albeit slower growth than the December half,” Mr Brooks says.
“We still see a more muted price reaction to positive surprises from Covid winners, as comps get much tougher within a few months, and we anticipate more earnings upside in Covid losers.”
12.46pm: HK, Japan shares climbing
Hong Kong stocks opened with strong gains on Monday morning, building on last week’s rally, fuelled by hopes for US stimulus and signs of slowing virus infections.
The Hang Seng Index jumped 1.16 per cent, or 340.40 points, to 29,629.08. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index added 0.24 per cent, or 8.23 points, to 3,504.56, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China’s second exchange rose 0.26 per cent, or 6.16 points, to 2,338.69.
The benchmark Nikkei 225 index was up 0.27 per cent or 78.89 points at 28,858.08 in early trade, while the broader Topix index edged up 0.49 per cent or 9.32 points to 1,900.27. The Nikkei Stock Average was briefly above 29,000 for the first time since August 1990 very early in the session.
“The Japanese market is seen moving in a narrow range after modest gains in US shares,” Toshiyuki Kanayama, senior analyst at Monex, said in a note.
Ichiro Asai, senior strategist of Daiwa Securities, said “this week will see a peak in corporate earnings by major firms, after Sony reported a sound earnings that beat market expectations overall”.
Among them are earnings on Wednesday by Toyota, which overtook Volkswagen as top-selling automaker in 2020, he noted.
AFP, Dow Jones Newswires
12.25pm: US earnings point to AU surprise: Macquarie
A strong 4Q20 reporting season in the US is a “good sign” that the 1H20 reporting season in Australia will also surprise on the upside, according to Macquarie’s Matt Brooks.
Mr Brooks notes that the US reporting season has seen a near 7:1 ratio of “beats to misses”.
Consistent with positive updates from Australian financial companies last week, US financials results have mostly been positive, with a beats-to-miss ratio of 14:1, which is the same as the US Tech sector.
“Banks have higher positive surprise than insurers, but both are well ahead of the market,” Mr Brooks says.
In Australia last week, five financial stocks gave results or updates and four were material outperformers on the day.
Mr Brooks notes that positive share price reaction to results in the financial sector may also be amplified by rising bond yields.
He argues that central bank QE tends to make bond yields rise if anything, as liquidity supports risk assets.
12.10pm: ASX jumps 0.7% on offshore gains
Australia’s sharemarket has surged amid buoyant offshore markets and domestic takeover interest so far on Monday.
The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7% to an 11-month high of 6888.7 as a 0.4% rise in S&P 500 futures and a 1.8% jump in the Nikkei added to strong offshore leads.
After the US market hit record highs on Friday as weak employment data increased the pressure on Congress to pass Biden’s proposed $US1.9tn stimulus, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighted the need for more fiscal support on Sunday.
Vocus was up 14% on a takeover bid from MIRA, making it the strongest stock in the ASX 200, while Zip Co jumped 9% ahead of its US roadshow this week.
ALS rose 4.4% after Goldman Sachs upgraded to Buy and REA rose 3.7% after UBS raised its target price by 52%.
The Technology, Materials and Financial sectors are outperforming, with Afterpay up 2.5%, BHP up 1.9% and NAB up 1.5%.
Bridget Carter 12.05pm: Vocus bid to attract other interest
Brookfield Asset Management and Infratil are now expected to weigh options for Vocus Group after the company announced on Monday that it had received a $3.4bn offer from Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets, say sources.
The Australian and New Zealand-listed Infratil, which is managed by Morrison & Co, purchased New Zealand telco player Vodafone New Zealand in 2019 as part of a consortium with Brookfield for NZ$3.4 billion.
Infratil has recently been a takeover target by AustralianSuper and amid a low interest rate environment where large infrastructure managers have large funds to put to work, a counter bid could make sense.
Those close to Vodafone New Zealand say that a deal by Infratil and its backers would be unlikely to face opposition by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.
The other party being closely watched is EQT Infrastructure, with some saying it could be coming back to take a look at Vocus after making a $3.3bn offer in 2019 that did not eventuate in a transaction.
However, sources say global private equity funds are concerned that they would not be granted Foreign Investment Review Board permission to buy the business, given that the Vocus NextGen national fibre backhaul network carries a lot of government and defence force traffic.
Vocus released a statement to the market on Monday saying that MIRA had offered $5.50 per share for the business, subject to conditions, including due diligence and funding and has been granted access to due diligence by the company to enable MIRA to potentially put forward a binding proposal.
Working as the defence adviser for Vocus is Credit Suisse.
It comes as Vocus has plans afoot to launch an initial public offering for its New Zealand operations, which could fetch as much as $700m.
Working on that transaction has been Goldman Sachs, Jarden and Craig’s.
Some market experts believe that MIRA will likely break up the Vocus business once it is in its ownership, offloading the retail assets and New Zealand division while retaining the Australian Singapore Cable and its Australian fibre assets.
They say the move providers further evidence that MIRA is becoming increasingly aggressive when it comes to making on-market bids for Australian listed assets.
MIRA has made an approach to buy the landlord of fruit and vegetable grower Costa Group for about $300m, along with Bingo Industries, currently the subject of attack by short sellers, with Snowcap Research alleging the company is overstating its ESG credentials.
MIRA, together with CPE Capital, has offered $2.3bn or $3.30 per share for Bingo and is currently carrying out due diligence on the target.
While some say that the MIRA offer for Vocus is attractive after about four parties have looked at buying Vocus before walking away in recent years, others believe at less than ten times its earnings, it may not be enough to get a transaction over the line at a time of strong business performance improvement with Kevin Russell at the helm.
Vocus generated underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $360.5m for the year to June.
Private equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Affinity looked at Vocus in 2017.
But they did not push forward with acquisitions of the business worth about $2.2bn at the time due to a lack of confidence in its prospects.
As well as EQT Infrastructure, AGL Energy also looked at Vocus in 2019 but opted to walk away.
Shares in Vocus were trading at $5.02 in late morning trade.
Lilly Vitorovich 12.01pm: GS raises News Corp estimates, target price
Goldman Sachs increased its News Corp FY21-23 EPS estimates and target price following the media heavyweight’s strong 2Q result, with Ebitda up 81% vs its estimate with all segments well ahead of expectations.
It upped its EPS forecasts by 13-52% to reflect higher News and Information Services, Dow Jones and digital book publishing operational leverage, offset by higher corporate costs.
The target price is raised by 14.6% to $35.40 as a result of earnings changes and a 3X increase in its Move revenue multiple.
Goldman says the result highlight was US digital real estate group Move, which further accelerated revenue/EBITDA growth of +28 per cent/+$US19m ($24.8m), its strongest quarter on record.
The momentum looks set to continue into the second-half of the 2021 financial year, given record traffic; increased marketing; non-repeat of $US13m in agent concessions; and the favourable US Real Estate macro backdrop, Goldman says in a research note.
The broker increased its Move value to $US5.2bn, citing further acceleration in revenue growth and re-rating in Zillow Group.
Goldman retains a Buy rating on News Corp, which publishes The Australian.
Cameron England 11.47am: Nine looking at +$2.5m defamation bill
Nine Entertainment is looking at a bill of more than $2.5m after Elaine Stead was awarded the vast majority of her costs in her defamation case against Australian Financial Review columnist Joe Aston.
Justice Michael Lee, in a brief hearing in the Federal Court in Sydney on Monday, awarded Dr Stead “indemnity costs” in the matter, from the date of April 22 last year, when Dr Stead offered to settle for a $190,000 payout.
Nine Entertainment rejected that offer, and an offer of $140,000 plus an apology made a few days later.
MEDIA DIARY: ‘Not shaking your hand’: Aston’s rebuke
Cara Lombardo 11.32am: Elliott Management explores raising a SPAC
Lombardo Elliott Management Corp., the hedge fund best known for its high-profile shareholder-activist campaigns, is looking to join the sizzling SPAC craze.
The firm, founded by billionaire Paul Singer, has been meeting with bankers about raising more than $1 billion for a special purpose-acquisition company, according to people familiar with the matter. They cautioned the process is at an early stage and plans could change.
Assuming Elliott moves forward, it could use the proceeds to buy a sizeable company -- potentially worth double-digit billions based on the targets similarly sized blank-check companies have agreed to combine with.
SPACs are empty shells that raise money with the sole purpose of looking for a target to merge with and in the process take public. They have exploded in popularity because they offer a lucrative shortcut to the public markets. So far this year, at least 116 SPACs have raised $35 billion, putting the market on track to blow through last year’s record of over $80 billion, according to SPAC Research. There were 10 new SPACs launched Friday alone.
They often feature big-name investors or celebrity backers such as former Yankees star Alex Rodriguez and ex-House Speaker Paul Ryan. Many of Elliott’s hedge-fund rivals already have raised their own SPACs but Elliott, an inveterate deal maker, had been a notable absence from the party.
It isn’t clear which industries Elliott might have its sights on. SPACs typically give investors an idea of the type of company they might target, but can easily change course.
Elliott, with roughly $42 billion under management, has run campaigns at companies as diverse as AT&T Inc. and Marathon Petroleum Corp. in recent years. Its private-equity affiliate, Evergreen Coast Capital, focuses on technology, having previously participated in the acquisitions of healthcare software firm Athenahealth Inc. and business-software company LogMeIn Inc. Elliott also bought bookseller Barnes & Noble Inc. in 2019.
The Wall Street Journal, via Dow Jones Newswires
Lachlan Moffet Gray 11.00am: Pull-back on dip into retirement savings: APRA
Australians withdrew less of their retirement savings early to help them through the COVID-19 crisis than originally anticipated, highlighting the rebounding economy in the latter half of 2020.
Data from the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority released today shows that under the COVID-19 early release of super scheme, Australians withdrew $36.4bn from their funds.
The scheme, which ran from April to December 31, was originally forecast by Treasury to prompt at least $42bn in outflows from super funds.
Applicants who could demonstrate they had seen their income fall due to the pandemic could withdraw up to $20,000 in two ten-grand tranches: one in the 2020 financial year, and one in the 2021 financial year.
A total of 4.9m applications were made under the scheme, with the average withdrawal being $7638.
A total of 3.5 million applications were made for the first tranche with 1.4 million people returning for a double-dip.
The average amount withdrawn under the second tranche was higher, at $8,268.
The top 10 funds with the highest amount of applications received accounted for 66 per cent of all payments made.
The nation’s largest superannuation fund, Australian Super, also saw the highest amount of outflows, with a total of 650,655 prompting $4.98bn to fly out the door.
APRA said that less than 8000 applications, or 0.16 per cent of the total, were still being processed at January 31 2020 because some applicants were unable to be contacted by their funds to finalise payments.
10.53am: ASX melt-up to record high?
Could the S&P/ASX 200 be set for a “melt-up” to new record highs in the coming weeks?
The RBA’s $100bn QE extension and its message last week that interest rates will stay at record lows until at least 2024 will only magnify feelings of TINA (there is no alternative and FOMC (fear of missing out).
On a technical view, the significant break above December and January highs in the S&P/ASX 200 is likely to entice investors to put more of their cash to work in the share market.
Even after rising 4.3% year to date, the S&P/ASX 200 index has lagged global markets since the lows in March 2020 despite sustained policy stimulus, dovish RBA guidance and Australia’s relatively better control of COVID-19.
The local market is now just 4.5% below its record high of 7197.2, but the S&P 500 is 15% above its February 2020 peak.
The February earnings season should confirm that there has been a faster start to the upgrade cycle for Australian equities and dividends could surprise, according to Morgan Stanley.
“The early signs from pre announced results and also the analyst revision pulse support our view,” says Morgan Stanley Australia equity strategist, Chris Nicol.
“From a market level perspective it would seem that investors have also embraced our thesis with solid S&P/ASX 200 index performance year-to-date and continued acceptance of stretched near term earnings multiples.
“So while EPS will be proof of the recovery path, companies will no doubt be considering how to calibrate and satiate building expectations.”
One area will definitely be the return of the outlook statement. Another less celebrated forecast item for analysts – the dividend - may be the tool of choice for companies to reinforce conviction and certainty around recovery profile and path.
The S&P/ASX 200 has extended its intra-day rise to a fresh 11-month peak of 6874.3.
READ MORE: China’s economy not out of the woods yet
David Swan 10.53am: Splitit appoints former Myer MD as new chair
Buy now, pay later outfit Splitit has appointed a new chairman, former Myer managing director Dawn Robertson, with Vanessa LeFebvre and Scott Mahoney to join the company’s board pending shareholder approval.
The company’s outgoing chairman Spiro Pappas will leave the company “to pursue new endeavours”, according to a statement. The company will hold a shareholder meeting as soon as possible to tick off the changes.
“Spiro has made a terrific contribution as chairman since our ASX listing in January 2019. He has been instrumental in guiding the company through a period of considerable change as Splitit has developed foundations to enable growth, including helping secure new credit facilities to support our funded model and multiple capital raises,” Ms Robertson said.
Splitit is up 2.11 per cent to $1.45 in early trade.
READ MORE: Big tech’s job spree reveals ‘imbalance’
Perry Williams 10.26am: CIMIC puts focus on Middle East unit
Australian construction giant CIMIC said it is prioritising the “safety and security” of workers at its Middle East unit after The Australian revealed unpaid debts at its Qatar venture had sparked fears of a humanitarian crisis.
CIMIC, Australia’s largest construction company, has seen its Middle East offshoot slapped with over 350 legal claims in gas-rich Qatar amid concerns hundreds of workers have been unpaid for months with some unable to leave the country.
“In its capacity as an investor in BICC, CIMIC is continuing to promote the safety and security of BICC’s people as a priority,” CIMIC said in a statement to the ASX.
CIMIC owns a 45 per cent stake in Dubai-based BIC Contracting but took the decision a year ago to take a $1.8bn writedown and quit the Middle East, blaming tough conditions in the region.
The CIMIC venture in Qatar has debts topping $US1bn ($1.3bn), but the Sydney-based company downplayed its exposure on Monday and referred to a $700m cash pledge made a year ago to cover debts the Gulf venture owes to its lenders.
“In its announcement, CIMIC disclosed the financial impact of its exposure to BICC, consisting of a one-off post-tax impact to its 2019 financial statements. This represents CIMIC’s exposure in relation to BICC,” CIMIC said on Monday.
BIC’s Leighton Contracting Qatar arm was in disarray with its 51 per cent majority owner, Hawar, launching legal action seeking “to intervene on account of perceived failings by the management appointed by the foreign shareholder”, a statement by Qatar’s Judicial Administrator said.
10.20am: ASX +0.3% to 11-month high
Australia’s sharemarket is hitting fresh 11-month highs as US futures gains add to positive leads from Wall Street and Vocus surges on a takeover bid from MIRA.
The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.3% to 6862.2 in early trading - its highest point since Feb 25th.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% after the index rose 0.4% to a record high of 3886.83 on Friday.
The Technology, Materials, Communications, Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors are outperforming while the Utilities, Health Care, Consumer Staples and Real Estate sectors are underperforming.
Vocus is up 17% at $5.15, but remains well short of MIRA’s $5.50 offer price as the proposed deal is indicative and non-binding.
Afterpay is up 2.2% while BHP is up 1.3% and NAB is up 0.5%, but CSL, Woolworths and Macquarie are down 0.4-0.6%.
Bingo is down 3.5% on a short-selling attack after a negative report on its ESG credentials from Snowcap Research.
10.02am: Sigma flags earnings growth
Sigma Healthcare said it expects FY 2021 underlying earnings to rise by more than 35 per cent on-year, supported by strong second-half growth.
The pharmaceutical distributor said it anticipates underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of about $80 million.
Sigma said it is on track to achieve its previously stated target of $100 million in underlying Ebitda by the 2023 fiscal year.
Sigma said it had also extended its existing receivables facility with Westpac by a further three years. Sigma Managing Director and Chief Executive Mark Hooper said the business is in a prime position to accelerate growth.
Dow Jones Newswires
9.47am: ASX likely supported by US rise
Australia’s sharemarket should be supported by Friday’s gains on Wall Street.
Bad news was good news for the US market as disappointing US non-farm payrolls data was seen as increasing the chance of large scale fiscal stimulus being implemented.
Overnight futures suggest the S&P/ASX 200 index will open up about 0.1% near 6847 after the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to a record high of 3886.3, capping its best week since November.
This week’s events include NAB’s Business Survey on Tuesday and Westpac’s Consumer Sentiment Index on Wednesday, along with results from CBA.
China Aggregate Financing figures are due this week and its inflation data are due Tuesday, while week-long Chinese New Year Holidays start Thursday.
US Fiscal stimulus talks remain in focus amid signs Democrats want to use budget reconciliation to try and pass the $US1.9 trillion stimulus plan.
US CPI data are due Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell speaks early Thursday morning and Trump’s impeachment trial in the Senate begins on Tuesday.
The ASX 200 rose 1.1% to an 11-month high daily close of 6840.53 on Friday.
Lachlan Moffet Gray 9.40am: Cann Group reveals cyber fraud
Medicinal cannabis growers and R&D company Cann Group may have lost $3.6m in a cyber security breach.
The company said it recently paid the money to an overseas contractor for works on its Mildura facility - but the funds never made it.
Instead, the payment had been received “by an unknown third party as a result of a complex and sophisticated cyber fraud perpetrated against the company and its overseas contractor.”
“The company is working with its bank to determine if any of the payments can be halted and if any of the funds involved are recoverable,” Cann Group said in a statement to the ASX.
“The company has notified its insurance brokers to determine if a claim can be made to recover any of the losses involved.
“Immediate action has also been taken to ensure the integrity of Cann’s IT systems.”
The breach was discovered overnight on February 4 and has been reported to police in Victoria, Australia, The Netherlands and Hong Kong.
9.35am: Bingo short attack over ESG credentials: Snowcap
Bingo is overstating its ESG credentials according to a short sell recommendation from Snowcap Research.
The report claims that while Bingo claims to be trying to become “the most sustainable company on the Australian Stock Exchange”, it has a “well-documented track record for breaching environmental regulations.
“Far from being the ESG-friendly stock pitched to investors, we consider Bingo to be one of the most extreme cases of ‘greenwashing’ we have ever come across. In our view, Bingo is not an appropriate holding for any responsible investment fund or index in its current form.”
The report goes on to say that “Bingo’s historical and ongoing disregard for environmental regulations is unacceptable, and we do not consider Bingo, in its current form, to be an appropriate investment for any responsible fund or index.
“This is significant for the current bid because both Macquarie and CPE pledge commitment to ESG principles on their websites.”
This report could weigh on the share price today if it causes some funds betting on a takeover to take profit.
Ben Wilmot 9.15am: Charter Hall Long WALE REIT turns in $198.6m profit
The Charter Hall Long WALE REIT has unveiled a healthy first half result with operating earnings of $73.6m after a series of property purchases.
The trust lifted operating earnings per share by 3.6 per cent to 14.5c and the distributions followed suit as it turned in a half year profit, including moves in the value of its portfolio, of $198.6m.
The trust raised $388m of new equity as it took the size of its property portfolio to $4.5bn via $697m of acquisitions and a $150m net property valuation uplift.
Charter Hall Long WALE REIT Fund Manager Avi Anger said the company had diversified and improved the resilience of the fund portfolio by extending its partnership with bp, acquiring an interest in 70 Long WALE triple-net convenience retail properties in New Zealand.
It also expanded its telco exchange portfolio with the acquisition of Telstra’s Pitt Street, Sydney CBD telco exchange. At the end of the half it also bought a half interest in the David Jones flagship Elizabeth Street store in the Sydney CBD.
Lachlan Moffet Gray 9.01am: Vocus confirms offer from MIRA
Vocus Group announced on Monday that it had received a $3.4 billion offer from Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets (MIRA), say sources.
MIRA is offering to acquire 100 per cent of the telecommunications company for $5.50 per share, a 25.57 per cent premium on Vocus’s last trading price of $4.38.
The offer values Vocus at around $3.4bn.
The Vocus board has granted MIRA due diligence access to enable the fund to put forward a binding proposal and has appointed Credit Suisse and Allens as advisers.
Elise Shaw 9.00am: News Corp, REA downside risks: GS
Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy recommendation on News Corp (ASX: NWS) and on REA Group (ASX: REA).
It sees key downside risks for REA as: (1) competition; (2) disintermediation; (3) severe housing downturn.
Key downside risks for NWS: (1) severe housing downturn; (2) FX exposure; (3) publishing headwinds; and (4) capital allocation.
Bridget Carter 8.55am: Apollo wants more of Tabcorp
The $10bn betting giant Tabcorp is understood to have fielded three offers from buyers of its assets in the space of weeks.
DataRoom understands the break-up proposal from a party about two weeks ago was in fact from Apollo Global Management and it involved an offer where it would buy all of the company except the lotteries operation.
This includes wagering and media and its gaming services division, although it remains unclear whether the bid also involved the Keno business, played in clubs and pubs in Victoria.
Lachlan Moffet Gray 8.46am: Argo dividend down as profit drops
Listed investment company Argo has reported a decreased profit of $67.4m and a slightly lower dividend of 14c a share for the first half of the financial year.
It represents a 43.3 per cent decline in profit and a 12.5 per cent decline in the dividend when compared to the first half of last financial year.
The company said the Covid-19 pandemic had reduced the dividend flow from most listed companies, reducing Argo’s profit.
However, the company was able to draw on reserves of retained earnings and franking credits to prevent the dividend from reducing in tandem with profit.
Argo said its return for the six months to December 31, measured on an NTA return after all costs and tax basis, was 12.3 per cent.
The company made $114m of long-term investments while receiving $122m from sales and takeovers of other long-term investments.
The companies added included Aurizon Holding and Newcrest Mining, while positions in Bega Cheese, Downer EDI and Healius were expanded.
Argo fully exited Ansell and AMP and reduced its position in Sydney Airport, Westpac and ANZ.
The company said it had an optimistic outlook for the year ahead.
“We are generally optimistic in our outlook for the year ahead. Despite numerous and ongoing state border closures, Australia has continued to fare well both economically and in the fight against COVID19,” it said.
“However, we are also cognisant of potential challenges arising as unprecedented stimulus measures are unwound and the Australian and global economies transition to a new normal.”
Lachlan Moffet Gray 8.34am: Treasury ‘not considering’ brands demerger
Treasury Wine Estates has paused work on a demerger of its flagship Penfolds wine brand and has said it is not considering a demerger of any other of its brands or businesses.
It comes after The Australian reported that the company’s executive team have examined the possibility of splitting its global operations in three.
“Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX: TWE) notes the article published by The Australian masthead on 7 February 2021, which reports that TWE is investigating a demerger of its global operations into three separate businesses,” the company said on Monday.
“As announced at its AGM on 5 November 2020, TWE reiterates that it has formally paused work on a potential demerger of its Penfolds brand, and further that it is not currently considering a demerger of any brands/businesses within its portfolio.”
However, the company did confirm it was looking at alternate operating models to assess their value to the company.
“As also announced on 5 November 2020, TWE is assessing internal operating models to deliver long term value through a separate focus across its brand portfolios,” it said.
“These assessments remain ongoing and TWE has no further announcements to make at this stage.”
8.27am: CBA, BEN earnings to beat consensus: Citi
Citi’s Brendan Sproules expects CBA and Bendigo & Adelaide Bank to beat consensus estimates for earnings when they report on Feb 10th and 15th respectively.
Mr Sproules is 2% above consensus for CBA with a 1H21 cash NPAT forecast of $4bn, and he’s 9% ahead on BEN, with forecast of $189m.
“After a COVID-affected 2020, the recovery of the bank sector is expected to be evident during February reporting with lower than expected bad & doubtful debts to drive earnings and dividend beats, driven by a sharp recovery in employment and lowering loan losses,” he says.
“With Australia almost recovering all of the lost jobs due to COVID by Xmas, loan loss estimates will benefit from a sharp fall in deferred loans and reduced credit stress across the economy.”
Revenue is expected to remain weak, but in line with expectations thanks to resilient net interest margins.
He cautions that cost growth will be closely watched after Bendigo shocked the market with 10% underlying half on half cost growth in August.
And he notes that the weak (yet improving) revenue environment provides little scope for further acceleration of cost growth.
Citi is Neutral rated on both banks with target prices of $82.50 and $10 respectively.
Eli Greenblat 8.20am: Treasury Wine Estates eyes three-way split
Treasury Wine Estates is investigating a three-way split of its global operations to create a stand-alone US business, a premium winemaker called Treasury Premium Products and a commercial wine company, splintering more than $7bn in wine assets originally brought together under the old Foster’s Group.
The proposal, under examination at the most senior executive ranks of Treasury Wine, is yet to be finalised or signed off by the board of directors but is well advanced and a proposal could be unveiled when the winemaker releases its half-year results in next week.
Already key local Treasury Wine executives have been sounded out about their future with the winemaker that will involve them joining either the structurally separated luxury wine business or switching to the commercial side of the business.
8.00am: What’s impressing analysts today?
- Boral cut to Sell: Morningstar
- Champion Iron raised to Neutral: Citi
- Mt Gibson raised to Buy: Citi
- Qube cut to Sell: Morningstar
- REA Group raised to Buy: Jefferies
- REA Group cut to Underperform: CS
- Westpac cut to Hold: Morningstar
- REA Group target price raised 19% to $155: UBS
- ALS raised to Buy: GS
- Challenger Financial target price raised 52% to $6.45: MS
- Incitec Pivot cut to Neutral: GS
7.30am: Iron ore prices raised by Citi
Citi has raised its iron ore price forecasts and earnings estimates for the miners.
The spot iron ore is expected to rise to $US165 a tonne over 3 months, before averaging $US140 and $US110 a tonne respectively in 2021 and 2022, whereas previously it saw $US115 and $US90 a tonne for those periods.
Citi analyst Paul McTaggart subsequently raised his FY22 EPS estimates for BHP, Fortescue, Mount Gibson and Champion Iron by 22%, 39%, 46% and 47% respectively, while also raising Rio Tinto’s calendar 21 EPS estimate 22%.
Mount Gibson has been upgraded to Buy and Champion Iron raised to Neutral. Significant target price increases include a 15% rise to $5.30 for Champion and a 9% rise to $1.20 for Mount Gibson.
Citi’s ratings remain at Neutral for BHP and Fortescue, and Buy for Rio Tinto.
“A persistent and synchronous global uplift in iron ore demand should allow the physical market to remain tight during 2021 before rebalancing somewhat in 2022,” Citi analysts say.
“Supply should continue to struggle to react to high prices over the period, given existing miners’ difficulties in ramping up output and a lack of large projects in the pipeline.”
They say the biggest wildcard is China’s potential steel output restrictions, which “may hit iron ore prices badly towards end-2021.”
Ben Wilmot 7.10am: ASX to edge up at the open
Australian stocks are tipped for a small rise to start a busy week of corporate earnings reports, after Wall Street posted new records on Friday.
This morning, the SPI futures index was just five points higher.
On Friday, the broadbased S&P 500 finished up 0.4 per cent while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.6 per cent. Both hit new all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3 per cent.
The Australian dollar was higher at US76.73c.
Spot iron ore is down 1.4 per cent at $US155.90 a tonne. Brent oil is up 0.8 per cent at $US59.34 a barrel. Gold futures are up 1.2 per cent at $US1813.00 an ounce.
Investors will be hoping major companies will provide positive earnings outlooks to stave off the risk of a short-term market correction.
The momentum appears positive as global markets ready for a surge of liquidity after the US House gave final approval for President Joe Biden’s $US1.9 trillion ($2.47 trillion) stimulus package and coronavirus vaccinations are accelerated internationally.
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said markets had been buoyed by good news around economic data, earnings and declining COVID-19 cases, as well as on vaccines and stimulus.
But he cautioned that shares could see a correction although it would be hard to time against the backdrop of vaccine rollouts, company earnings still being revised up, inflation staying low and central banks remaining dovish.
“The vulnerability to a renewed short-term pullback remains with investor sentiment remaining upbeat, but the broader trend likely remains up as it’s too early to expect a cyclical bull market top with a more sustained global recovery,” Mr Oliver said.
The week will be dominated by surveys that are expected to show a lift in consumer sentiment and business confidence as the economy kicks into gear after summer and the local profit-reporting season providing a positive guide as 23 major companies update the market.
Dr Oliver expected earnings to rebound in this financial year by about a quarter, making up their pandemic driven plunge last financial year. He tipped the largest earnings rises for resources, banks and IT stocks, with healthcare, media and gaming also likely to record healthy earnings growth and retailers to surprise on the upside.
Companies expected to report over the week include Suncorp, which will update on lending and housing conditions, as will building supplies company Boral.
The biggest results will come from the Commonwealth Bank on Wednesday, with the bank providing a national guide to the state of the economy, and IAG.
Thursday is the busiest day for share investors with Telstra leading the day of reports with insurer and financial services company AMP to also update the market on the Ares Management takeover deal. Others to report include the ASX, Transurban, Magellan Financial Group, AGL and Charter Hall.
4.50am: Tightening oil supplies spur price rally
A booming rally in oil markets has pushed crude prices to their highest levels since near the start of the coronavirus pandemic, powered by production curbs and recovering demand.
Brent-crude futures, the benchmark in energy markets, have risen more than 50 per cent since the end of October and are approaching $US60 a barrel for the first time since COVID-19 began to erode oil demand in early 2020.
Futures for West Texas Intermediate -- or WTI, the main grade of U.S. crude -- last week surpassed $US55 a barrel for the first time in over a year.
The speed of the recovery has surprised some investors and analysts, given that coronavirus continues to curtail demand. It has juiced shares of companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips after a troubled 2020 for oil-and-gas producers, making energy stocks the best performers on the S&P 500 this year.
“The market definitely has some momentum,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC, a hedge fund that invests in energy derivatives. “WTI is going to be targeting $60, too.”
Dow Jones
4.45am: Yellen says stimulus will revive ‘stalled’ US job market
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US job market is “stalling” and might not recover for years without the support promised by President Joe Biden’s pandemic relief package.
Citing employment figures from Friday, when the economy added an anemic 49,000 jobs, she told CBS’s “Face the Nation,” “We’re in a deep hole with respect to the job market, and a long way to dig out.”
But in a separate interview with CNN, Yellen predicted that if Biden’s $US1.9 trillion package is passed, “we would get back to full employment next year.” Without that support, she said, “the unemployment rate is going to stay elevated for years,” perhaps not again reaching four per cent until 2025.
In the meantime, Yellen said, million of Americans are going hungry or risk losing their homes.
“We need a big package, and we need to get this done quickly,” she told CNN. Responding to a key concern of Republicans -- that many well-to-do Americans received money from last year’s stimulus payments, driving up the price of the package -- Yellen said there would be “more targeted relief” this time, while adding that Biden was still ironing out the details with lawmakers.
Regarding the recent trading frenzy on Wall Street centred on shares in the GameStop video game retailer, Yellen said US regulators were closely studying the matter.
But she said “the core infrastructure of the markets, the plumbing, ability to trade, clearing settlement, those infrastructures performed well.”
AFP
4.40am: ECB says no to cancelling Covid debts
European Central Bank (ECB) chief Christine Lagarde rejected calls to cancel debts run up by eurozone members to buttress their economies during the COVID-19 crisis.
The ECB has taken unprecedented steps to cushion the economic blow from the pandemic in the 19-nation euro area, launching a massive bond-buying scheme that has so far totalled 1.85 trillion euros ($2.2 trillion).
“Cancelling that debt is unthinkable,” Lagarde told France’s Le Journal du Dimanche weekly.
“It would be a violation of the European treaty which strictly forbids monetary financing of states,” she said, calling it one of the “founding pillars” of the euro single currency.
She was reacting to a call Friday by more than 100 economists for the ECB to further boost the economic recovery of eurozone members by forgiving their debts.
AFP
4.35am: Wall Street recap: new records
Wall Street stocks capped a strong week with fresh records on Friday, fuelled by on optimism over more fiscal stimulus spending and progress on coronavirus vaccines.
The broadbased S&P 500 finished up 0.4 per cent at 3,886.83, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.6 per cent to 13,856.30. Both were at all-time highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3 per cent to 31,148.24.
Analysts said President Joe Biden’s $US1.9 trillion federal relief package picked up momentum from Friday’s lacklustre US jobs report.
The closely-watched jobs data showed the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3 per cent in January but the economy added only 49,000 jobs, the Labor Department said Friday.
Economist Joel Naroff expects Washington to produce another relief package “within the next few weeks,” he said in a note.
“The economy is being supported by the federal government and the markets are reaping the rewards,” Naroff wrote.
Adding to the positive momentum was news that Johnson & Johnson submitted an application with US health authorities for emergency authorisation of its COVID-19 vaccine.
The process could take several weeks, but if approved, the vaccine would be the third authorised in the United States, after those of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna.
The J&J vaccine is considered especially promising because it only requires one shot, unlike the other options already being used. J&J jumped 1.5 per cent.
Ford rose 1.2 per cent after the auto giant announced a dramatic acceleration of its investment push into electric autos and said it would pursue additional venture with technology companies.
AFP