Sydney hits its annual average rainfall – almost nine months early

With rivers soaring at an “exceptionally fast” pace, one of Sydney’s main rivers is expected to reach flood levels unseen since 1998.

If you thought yesterday’s rainfall in Sydney was heavy, welcome to Thursday.

By 9am, the city had reached its average total of rainfall for an entire year – a whole nine months ahead of schedule.

More than 1214mm of rain has already fallen on the city, with even more set to come.

Major Flood warnings Nepean and Georges rivers. Torrential rain and flash flooding today ##Sydney and #Illawarra. Sydney has now passed it's annual average rain with >1214mm. LIVE coverage all day on Sky News Weather. #SydneyStorm#NSWFloods@[e-mail]/G3S6brqeuK

— Thomas Saunders (@TomSaundersSNW) April 6, 2022

The inclement weather has led to warnings that major suburbs in the city’s west, including Liverpool, could flood later in the day as swollen rivers burst their banks.

And it’s not just Sydney – a vast swath of New South Wales is seeing large falls as far inland as Dubbo and Orange, as well as along much of the coast.

“The rain event has really only just begun,” I meteorologist Rob Sharpe said.

“There’s still a fair way to go with this event with a lot of rainfall charging into [Australia’s east].”

Forecasters have said this week’s rain event has ‘only just begun’. Picture: Sky News Weather

Nepean River flooding to exceed 1988 levels

As rainwater pelts parts of Sydney, Sky News’ Chief Meteorologist Tom Saunders expressed “serious concern” for the Nepean River in the southwest and west of Sydney.

Flood levels have predicted to exceed the record floods seen in 1998. In a press conference between the NSW BOM AND NSE SES, officials said flooding Menangle and Wallacia will exceed levels seen last month and be closer to the height seen in April 1998.

I have serious concerns for the Nepean. Radar shows heavy rain across the upper catchment inland from Wollongong. 10mm+ per hour. If rain also continues across the Warragamba catchment then BOMs current Penrith forecast of 5m could be too conservative. #[e-mail]/svxy7dSYGU

— Thomas Saunders (@TomSaundersSNW) April 7, 2022

Flooding in Camden is also expected to surpass level from March 2022, with Georges River also expected to flood in Liverpool and Milperra.

Beginning inland from Wollongong from the Illawarra Escarpment, certain areas have received 200mm in the past 24 hours up till Thursday 9am, with “consistent falls of 10mm per hour since then,” Mr Saunders told news.com.au.

“Exceptionally fast” water levels along the Menangle Bridge saw the river rise 12m in 12 hours.

What Menangle Road looks like when it isn’t flooded. Picture: Google Maps.

Footage of Menangle Rd this afternoon from the same spot. Picture: Live Traffic.

Before and after photos of the Menangle Rd near the Nepean River Reserve show the extent of the heavy rainfall. The road sits above the Nepean River, however footage from Live Traffic shows the bridge completely submerged in floodwaters.

Residents and business owners in the nearby area of Picton CBD are also under evacuation orders as of 11am. Fire and Rescue NSW teams are aiding the evacuation.

It feels like déjà vu. The Nepean River is once again in major flood at Menangle Bridge, with a current #flood level of 14.25m.

An #evacuation warning was issued this morning for Picton CBD due to rising water levels in Stonequarry Creek.#flooded#floods2022#NSWfloodspic.twitter.com/5cJ5NrRcJe

— Molino Stewart (@molinostewart) April 7, 2022

‘Serious concern’

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for heavy rainfall for the entire NSW coast between Newcastle and Bega, near the Victorian border, for Thursday.

At least 100mm is possible in Sydney, the Blue Mountains and down the south coast over the next few days.

“But there’s potential for totals of up to around 300mm. So that’s why flash flooding is a serious concern,” Mr Sharpe said.

The torrential conditions are due to a combination of factors. The La Nina climate driver continues to push warm moist air towards the continent. At the same time, cooler than usual air is high in the atmosphere and that’s causing the warmer moisture to rise and then form clouds and rain – lots of it.

“That’s our rainmaking event that is moving through the upper system and that’s driving the whole thing,” he said.

There was a month’s worth of rainfall on parts of Sydney in 24 hours on Wednesday. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Jeremy Piper

Grim rain record could be beaten today

On Wednesday, Sydney Airport record 111mm of rain, more than 15mm above its entire average monthly rainfall for April in a single day.

Lucas Heights, in the city’s south, topped out at 84mm while the CBD weather station, next to the Harbour Bridge, recorded 86mm.

So far in 2022, Sydney’s CBD has seen at least 1112mm of rain. The average annual rainfall in Sydney is 1164mm.

That means if just another 52mm falls on Thursday – and double that is possible – the city will have equalled its usual rainfall for the entire year in just three months and one week.

⚠️ Minor to Major #Flood Warning issued for #Nepean and #Hawkesbury Rivers. #Menangle minor expected at 6:00 am, may reach major Thursday evening. Moderate for #Camden#Wallacia. See https://t.co/AdztI2rqg1 for details and updates; follow advice from @NSWSES#NSWFloodspic.twitter.com/gexASKbXgX

— Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales (@BOM_NSW) April 6, 2022

Thunderstorms are also possible but the intensity of the rain should lessen going into Thursday evening and Friday. It’s likely the big wet will subside over the coming days – at least for now.

It’s much the same story throughout other parts of Sydney, with Penrith in the west also set to see 60-100mm and then between 20-30mm on Friday and spells of less heavy rain through the weekend.

Minor to moderate flooding is possible on the Nepean, Hawkesbury, Colo, Georges and Woronora rivers in and around Sydney with flooding very possible in riverside suburbs such as Liverpool, Milperra and Menangle.

At 6am on Thursday, buses were replacing trains between Thirroul and Waterfall on the NSW Train Link south coast line due heavy rain at Helensburgh.

The Parramatta River swells after heavy rain. Picture: John Grainger

Much of NSW set to be smashed

Wollongong could see 70-120mm on Thursday and up to 45mm on Friday; 60mm could find its way down to Bega; up to 170mm could fall on Katoomba over the next couple of days with potentially more than 50mm in Dubbo over the same period.

Blessedly, northern NSW, which has been beset by rain, will be less affected. But rain could still reach places like Byron Bay with falls on Thursday and then 15-35mm on Friday.

Temperatures will be mild in much of NSW hovering around the early 20C mark.

The rain will continue to fall on Friday but the totals will be lower. Picture: Sky News Weather

Weather in the other states

Some of that rain could work its way down into northern Victoria with flood warnings in place for the Mitchell, Snowy and Avon rivers. Wangaratta could see 10mm on Thursday.

But Melbourne will be unaffected with a pleasant few days of sunshine and cloud reaching 24C. However, rain could be on the way early next week.

It will be dry in Tasmania with Hobart topping out at 20-24C over the next few days with temperatures a touch cooler in Burnie.

Light showers are possible in Brisbane on Thursday, but nothing like what Sydney is experiencing. The rain could increase over Friday and Saturday however with up to 15mm on both days. Warm autumn weather is in store peaking at 28C with lows of 20C.

Dry in Townsville with highs of 32C and 23C overnight.

Partly cloudy and mostly dry in Darwin with highs of 34C and mid-twenties minimums.

A maximum of 32C in Perth on a sunny Thursday will drop to 26C on Friday with the odd spot of rain followed by a dry weekend.

Adelaide should remain dry until at least Monday with mid-twenties highs the norm, rising to 29C on Sunday and with dawn lows of around 15C.