Oil reheated: Best bets, race-by-race analysis for the Bendigo card
People they are still racing and leading form analyst Michael Manley is still the best in the business. Check out his best bets, race-by-race analysis and quaddie breakdown for the Bendigo stand-alone meeting.
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Leading form analyst Michael Manley goes in search of that elusive winner at the stand-alone Bendigo meeting as he attempts to kick punters off to a flier in the first.
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BENDIGO
BEST BET
GRAND PROMENADE (R1, No. 2 $2.40)
He’s meeting every challenge and is getting better with every start. He’s still learning so will continue to improve.
NEXT BEST
PRINCESS JENNI (R8, No. 15 $4.20)
Forget her last start fifth at The Valley as she got too keen in the early stages. Look for her to settle back here and come with a sweeping run.
BIG NIGHT OUT (R9, No. 12 $2.40)
He looks ready to win after two excellent runs down the Flemington straight over 1200m where he was in the wrong spot each time. He’ll love getting out to 1400m.
BEST EACH-WAY
VANUATU (R6, No. 13 $6.50)
Classy mare who was Group placed last campaign. Grahame Begg has a big opinion of her and he’s hoping she can follow in the footsteps of his mare Miss Siska who won this race last year.
BEST VALUE
HEIRBORN (R7, No. 5 $11)
Resumed with first-up second at Pakenham over 1200m. He’ll be much better suited over 1400m, a distance he finished third behind Alabama Express last spring.
OVER THE ODDS/LONGSHOT
RECKONING (R7, No. 10 $51)
Crazy odds for this talented galloper who toyed with his rivals in a Benchmark 64. He ran some excellent races last spring where he was competitive against the likes of Skiddaw.
THE JOCKEY
DAMIAN LANE
Damian Lane has the best book of any rider at the meeting. He has seven rides and they all have chances. His best are RIVER NIGHT (R4, No. 6 $5.50), SKIDDAW (R5, No. 3 $8), FABRIC (R6, No. 2 $4.80 HEIRBORN (R7, No. 5 $11) and JUMBO OZAKI (R9, No. 14 $3.40).
THE TRAINER
LOGAN McGILL
GOLD FIELDS (R8, No. 7 $17)
“He came through his run in the Anniversary really well after he didn't have a great deal of luck. He’s drawn out but when he’s drawn wide in previous he's been able to blend across without having to fire him up. That allows him to find the lead and Bendigo has a nice straight run to the 800-metre turn. So barrier 14 might sound daunting, but I'm not that concerned.”
EARLY QUADDIE
2,4,6,12,15/1,3,5/4,5,6,7,9,14,15,16/1,3,6
$100 flexi for 16.66%
BIG6
4,5,6,7,14,16/1,6/2,5,13,14/3,5,7/4,6,7,15/12
$100 flexi for 17.36%
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1,2,5,13,14
Race 7: 3,5,7,10,12,17
Race 8: 4,6,7,15
Race 9: 12,14
$100 flexi for 41.66%
MORE RACING
WEEKEND BEST BETS: WHO TO BACK AND WHY
WAR CHEST: QUEENSLAND ABANDONS WINTER CARNIVAL
QUINNY’S BEST: WHY THE STARS HOLD THE FUTURE
THE EARLY OIL: BENDIGO UP CLOSE AND PERSONAL
RACE 1: 12.15PM BM84 HCP (2400M)
HARD to go past exciting staying prospect GRAND PROMENADE (2) who has won his past four starts. He was given a serious test at Caulfield last start as he was attacked before the turn and then again half way up the straight when he was headed but he kept on finding to win. That was his first start over 2400m and he’ll be better for that experience. SIN TO WIN (1) is a tough stayer on his day and he should be ready to improve at his third run back in from a spell. NO COMMITMENT (7) looked likely to win at Sandown last start but got tired late when third behind the in-form Kentucky Tornado. That was his first start over 2400m and he might have hit the front too early. BUDD FOX (11) was tough winning over 3000m last start at Sandown Hillside
SUGGESTED BET: GRAND PROMENADE THE WIN
RACE 2: 12.50PM BM78 HCP (1300M)
WRITE YOUR NAME (6) returned to his best with a last start win at Ballarat. He’s also had two starts at this track and distance for a first and a second. He’ll go forward and he also has a fitness edge on most of his rivals. ARCTIC SHOCK (15) is a consistent mare resuming. She’ll take up a handy spot. First-up last campaign she finished second over 1300m to CUBAN TONITE (17) at this track. TURN THE TIDE (4) resumes from 10 weeks off. If the speed is on he’s got the talent to win this. VILLA SARCHI (12) steps up to 1200m for the first time. He’s been running on well over 1200m. BEAUTIFUL FLYER (2) finished third first-up in a stronger race in Adelaide behind Runson. SIKORSKY (10) resumes from a long break but has been jumping out well.
SUGGESTED BET: WRITE YOUR NAME EACH-WAY
RACE 3: 1.30PM BM84 HANDICAP (1100M)
QUEEN ANNABEL (5) hasn’t had a lot go right at her past two starts as she has been trapped wide throughout in Adelaide and then in Bella Vella’s sizzling 955m win at The Valley last week. This time she’s well drawn and she has a good record over 1100m. Also Craig Williams rides and he has ridden her five times for a first, second, third and a fourth. TERBIUM (3) showed a lot of talent early in his career. He resumes here and he has trialled well. PREZADO (1) has a big weight but he’ll relish the drop in class plus he’s got blinkers on for the first time. Interesting runner is ex Kiwi SIMPLY OPTIMISTIC (9) who hasn’t raced for 42 weeks but he has won his last three starts. REDCORE (6) resumes from a spell and has won a recent Cranbourne trial. He has won two of three this track and distance. GOLDEN HALO (13) has strong claims.
SUGGESTED BET: QUEEN ANNABEL EACH-WAY
RACE 4: 2.10PM VOBIS GOLD RUSH (1000M)
RIVER NIGHT (6) broke through for a well deserved win in the Redoute’s Choice Stakes at Caulfield last start where she led throughout to defeat MASSEUSE (7). She ran the fastest last 600m for the meeting and the seventh fastest last 400m and 200m. BELLA NIPOTINA (5) has been freshened since she finished fourth in the Group 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes behind Hungry Heart who finished fifth in the Golden Slipper Stakes. Several first starters have trialled well in the lead up to this. STRAD (4) won a Flemington jump-out and he’s out of the brilliant mare Miss Octopussy. The local filly CLASSY GAL (16) finished on well under a hold in a Bendigo jump-out. SWATS THAT (14) has also shown ability. TARCOOLA DIVA (15) has won jump-outs at Caulfield. MADAM MISCHIEF (9) showed a stack of speed to win her debut by four lengths at Ballarat.
SUGGESTED BET: RIVER NIGHT EACH-WAY
RACE 5: 2.50PM 3YO HANDICAP (2200M)
ADELAIDE ACE (1) had his colours lowered last week by the smart Nonconformist in the Alister Clark Stakes. He’s up in weight and has drawn the outside barrier but he’s not taking on a horse of the calibre of Nonconformist. DIASONIC (6) was trapped wide in that event and he’ll meet Adelaide Ace four kilos better. SKIDDAW (3) is having his first start over 2200m. At his last start he was beaten just over a length in an open handicap at Caulfield. Stablemate COIN COLLECTOR (9) ran on well for second at The Valley last start over 2040m. DON’T DOUBT DORY (2) has won three of his four starts including the Stony Creek Cup which was a gutsy win last start. ROYAL CROWN (4) has won two of his four starts and finished on resolutely to defeat Anchorman last start at Sandown over 1800m. SAINT EUSTACE (12) finished on strongly to win his maiden last start at Geelong over 1700m and he’s bred to relish this trip.
SUGGESTED BET: ADELAIDE ACE THE WIN
RACE 6: 3.30PM GOLD BRACELET (1400M)
Classy mare VANUATU (13) races well fresh and has a touch of class. She has trialled well and will be suited by the long run in at Bendigo. Grahame Begg trained Miss Siska to win this race first-up last year. NEIGHBORHOOD (5) has been plagued by unsuitable wet tracks and also track bias against her in her recent runs which have all been sound. Should be good speed in this and she has the talent to win this. CLARICE CLIFFS (14) wasn’t beaten far at Flemington last start in a good field over 1400m. She drops 2.5 kilos on that run and has the perfect draw. GOLDIFOX (10) was trapped wide throughout when fourth at stakes level over 1600m in Adelaide. FABRIC (2) is an above average mare who will also be suited by a firm track. Smart Tassie mare TWITCHY FRANK (1) finished third in this race last year to Miss Siska.
SUGGESTED BET: VANUATU EACH-WAY
RACE 7: 4.10PM BENDIGO GUINEAS (1400M)
HEIRBORN (5) was slow to begin when he resumed with sound second behind track specialist Paperboy at Pakenham first-up over 1200m. He’s had one start here for an easy win in his maiden. Last campaign he finished third in a stakes race at Caulfield behind Alabama Express and Hilo over 1400m at Flemington. RIDDLE ME THAT (7) finished second to SPEND (3) at Flemington at his last start and he covered more ground and will meet him two kilos better. Spend has since gone to Sydney and didn’t handle a wet track. RECKONING (10) showed a lot of potential last spring and he outclassed his rivals when he resumed with a win at Echuca. TOFFEE DOLL (17) is a promising filly. She finished an unlucky second in the Albury Guineas at her last start. VEGAS JEWEL (13) showed a stack of talent last preparation where she was a first-up winner. SCORE (12) wasn’t disgraced in the Kewney Stakes when fifth behind Rubisaki last start as she was in wrong part of the track.
SUGGESTED BET: HEIRBORN EACH-WAY
RACE 8: 4.50PM GOLDEN MILE (1600M)
PRINCESS JENNI (15) had excuses when she failed at The Valley last start when fifth in the Sunline Stakes as she was keen early and then she was pushed forward to suit the pattern of racing which didn’t work for her. She has a touch of class and is worth another chance. SO SI BON (4) ran a cracking race in the All-Star Mile where he was only beaten 2.3 lengths and was trapped wide throughout. GAILO CHOP (1) is the class act of the field resuming. He finished second in the Kingston Town Classic at his last start. Former Singapore champ DEBT AGENT (2) flew home for fourth at Flemington last start behind Wild Planet over 1400m. ADMIRAL’S JOKER (6) was set a big task last time when he encircled the field with 600m to go and hit the front in the straight but tired when fourth to GUIZOT (12). GOLD FIELDS (7) finished an unlucky fifth in the same race as he was held up for a run in the closing stages. SIKANDARABAD (10) races well second-up. HELLOVA STREET (5) and ODEON (14) are always chances.
SUGGESTED BET: PRINCESS JENNI THE WIN
RACE 9: 5.25PM BM90 HANDICAP (1400M)
BIG NIGHT OUT (12) has run on strongly in his two runs back from a spell over 1200m at Flemington for a fourth behind Sirius Suspect and then a second to Chicago Cub and each time he was in the slower part of the track. At his last start over 1400m he won by 3.5 lengths at Flemington. JUMBO OZAKI (14) broke through with tough on speed win over 1400m at Flemington last start. KAZIO (10) will find this easier than last start seventh in the Futurity Stakes. EF TROOP (5) will find this easier than his last start fifth behind Wild Planet. MYSTYO (4) will find this easier than fourth in the Abell Stakes at The Valley over 1200m. AMADEUS (3) is always a chance in this type of race.
SUGGESTED BET: BIG NIGHT OUT THE WIN
QUADZILLA
LEG 1
RACE 6 BENDIGO GOLD BRACELET (1400M)
A tough leg to kick off what traditionally is a difficult quaddie to get. Last year Grahame Begg trained Miss Siska to win this race first-up and he’s attempting the same with another smart mare in VANUATU (13). NEIGHBOURHOOD (5) hasn’t had much luck recently but should be suited by 1400m at Bendigo. CLARICE CLIFFS (14) is well drawn and ready to win. TWITCHY FRANK (1) and FABRIC (2) are the class mares at the top of the weights.
FIRST LEG: 1,2,5,13,14
LEG 2
RACE 7 BENDIGO GUINEAS (1400M)
Another hard leg. Must haves are the pair who fought out at a race at Flemington recently also over 1400m, SPEND (3) and RIDDLE ME THAT (7). HEIRBORN (5) finished third to Alabama Express last spring over 1400m. RECKONING (10) represents value, VEGAS JEWEL (13) and TOFFEE DOLL (17) are promising fillies.
SECOND LEG: 3,5,7,10,13,17
LEG 3
RACE 8 GOLDEN MILE (1600M)
Forget PRINCESS JENNI’s (15) last start failure at The Valley as there were excuses. She’s a class mare and worth another chance. SO SI BON (4) ran a fantastic race in the All-Star Mile. ADMIRAL’S JOKER (6) was set a big task at his last start to win when he finished fourth. GOLD FIELDS (7) was unlucky in that same race.
THIRD LEG: 4,6,7,15
LEG 4
RACE 9 MITCHELTON WINERY HANDICAP (1400M)
This is the leg which can be cut back. Looks to be two main chances. BIG NIGHT OUT (12) has run well at his two starts this time in down the Flemington straight and he’ll be better suited over 1400m. JUMBO OZAKI (14) broke through last start at Flemington with a tough win.
FOURTH LEG: 12,14
QUADDIE
1st Leg: 1,2,5,13,14
2nd Leg: 3,5,7,10,13,17
3rd Leg: 4,6,7,15
4th Leg: 12,14
$100 flexi for 41.66%
SKINNY QUADDIE
Let’s use the same numbers in the First Leg. Take only three in the second Leg – SPEND (5), HEIRBORN (5) and RIDDLE ME THAT (7). Come home with only PRINCESS JENNI (15) in the third leg and then BIG NIGHT OUT (12) in the fourth Leg.
1st Leg: 1,2,5,13,14
2nd Leg: 3,5,7
3rd Leg: 15
4th Leg: 12
$25 flexi for 166.66%
FOUR $50 BETS STRATEGY WITH MICHAEL MANLEY
RACE 1 ALAN ‘SIMMO’ SIMPSON TRIBUTE (2400m)
$50 win on GRAND PROMENADE (No. 2) at $2.50
Exciting staying prospect who showed grit to make it four wins on end last start at Caulfield. He’s getting better with every start and should again prove too good for his rivals.
BENDIGO RACE 9 MITCHELTON WINERY HANDICAP (1400m)
$50 win on BIG NIGHT OUT (12) at $2.50
His two runs back from a spell at Flemington over 1200m have been excellent. Gets out to a more suitable trip in 1400m.
ROSEHILL RACE 6 TANCRED STAKES (2400m)
$50 win on VERRY ELLEEEGANT (9) at $2
Tremendous second last week when she and eventual winner English galloper Addeybb sprinted clear of their rivals including Avilius who is second favourite. She’s taken her game to another level this time in.
ROSEHILL RACE 9 DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500m)
$30 win on CASCADIAN (3) at $5.50 and $10 each-way on RAINBOW THIEF (10) at $17/$4.80
Cascadian has been involved in bumping duals at his past two starts. He’s drawn out here which is likely to be the place to be by the last race and James McDonald goes on. Victorian Rainbow Thief has only been beaten once on wet tracks.
