Nick Quinn: Expert tips, betting analysis for The Championships at Randwick
TAB punting guru Nick Quinn is convinced Castelvecchio can add another Group 1 win to his belt in the ATC Derby, while he’s banking on a proven big-race performer in the Doncaster Mile. BEST BETS, ANALYSIS
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TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn looks for a winner on day one of The Championships at Royal Randwick this weekend.
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BEST BET
CASTELVECCHIO (Randwick R7, No.1)
VALUE BET
MELODY BELLE (Randwick Race 9, No.1)
LAY OF THE DAY
MAJOR MARTINI (Gloucester Park trots Race 6, No.11)
LATEST MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS
ROYAL RANDWICK
RACE 7: ATC AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2400m)
A strong edition of the Australian Derby with six of the runners coming through the Rosehill Guineas won by Castelvecchio. The Richard Litt-trained colt has been well backed from $3.50 into $2.90 and is the one to beat.
The slight knock on him heading into last start was that he had not won a race in nearly a year, but with that victory under his belt he should go on with the job now and represents an appealing quote.
The main major danger could be Warning, who caused a minor upset winning the VRC Derby last spring and comes into this race with similar form. He should go forward from the wide draw and be in the finish, while Shadow Hero was a beaten favourite in the VRC Derby and won the Randwick Guineas impressively two starts ago.
THE TIP: CASTELVECCHIO.
RACE 8: TJ SMITH STAKES (1200m)
As always when Nature Strip is in a race, the big question is how whether you back him or not. The fascinating sprinter has already proved elusive for punters in his two starts this preparation.
He resumed with an unplaced effort in the Black Caviar Lightning at Flemington as the $1.45 favourite. He then drifted in the betting and comfortably won the Challenge Stakes by three lengths, he didn’t look like losing. Nature Strip has firmed from $5 into $3.50 since the barrier draw, including bets of $1000 at $5 and $2000 at $4.50.
Professional form analyst Mark Rhoden from ChampionBet’s approach to Nature Strip is to back him at odds of $3 or better, and to take him on or lay him if he is under that quote.
This theory has proved successful in seven of his last eight starts, including winning at $4.20, $3.30, $3.60 and $3.10 and tasting defeat at $2.30, $2.30 and $1.45.
The only blip on the radar with this theory from his past seven runs was in the 2019 TAB Everest where he ran a credible fourth at $21.
Defending champion Santa Ana Lane is on the second line of betting at $5. He has not won a since his breathtaking victory in this race last year. But a recent barrier trial and a strong second-up record indicate he can’t be dismissed.
The three year-olds must respected. Bivouac was enormous winning the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap at Flemington and returns to Randwick, where he won the Kindergarten Stakes.
Loving Gabby holds strong each-way claims, while it is clear she does her best racing at The Valley, she is a model of consistency having won or placed at her past nine starts.
THE TIP: NATURE STRIP.
RACE 9: DONCASTER MILE (1600m)
A strong edition of the Doncaster Mile where if you find the winner the value will take of itself. The money has come for Brandenburg who is down in the weights with just 50.5kg on his back and Glen Boss looking for an eighth Doncaster Mile win. He was a $12 chance last week and heads the market at $6. He ticks lots of boxes and must be considered.
The each-way play in the race looks to be the 10-time Group 1 winner Melody Belle at $8, despite the big weight she looks primed to peak on Saturday, especially with the sting out of the ground.
Melody Belle was placed in both the Futurity Stakes and All-Star Mile and her wet track form reads nine wins from 14 starts on soft ground and a perfect two from two on heavy.
You can make a case for multiple runners.
Shared Ambition is a rising star, winning six of his eight career starts and can feature at odds, but irrespective of what he does in the Doncaster, throw his name into the black book as I anticipate he can rise all the way to the Metropolitan, Caulfield Cup and even the Melbourne Cup in the spring.
The knockout could be Kings Will Dream. The ultra-consistent runner has drawn nicely and has an excellent record over the mile with two wins and three placings from six attempts.
THE TIP: MELODY BELLE.
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