Early Oil: Caulfield best bets and race-by-race analysis, TAB market movers
Unbeaten at distance and coming off two previous wins at the track, front-running mare Pippie looks ideally placed to extend her winning sequence to four wins when she steps out at Caulfield.
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Talented mare Pippie has dominated from start to finish to win her three runs this time in the last two at Caulfield. No reason why she can’t win again, says leading form analyst Michael Manley.
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EXPERT TIPS: 10 YOUNG GUNS YOU NEED IN SUPERCOACH
BEST BET
PIPPIE (Race 5, No. 1 — $)
VALUE BET
THE LIFELINE (Race 2, No. 2 — $)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,2,3,4,5/1,3,5/3,5,6/4,10,11
$100 flexi for 92.59%
BIG6
3,5,6/4/4,5,11,14/5,12,14/1,7,8,11/3,5,8,9
$100 flexi for 17.36%
QUADDIE
Race 6: 4,5,11,14
Race 7: 5,12,13,14
Race 8: 1,8,11,12
Race 9: 1,3,5,8,9
$100 flexi for 31.25%
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QUINNY’S TIPS: TREAT MOTHER WITH RESPECT
OFF AND RACING: DAVO’S BEST FOR RANDWICK
WEEKEND BEST BETS: IT’S TIME TO GET SERIOUS
RACE 1: 12.35PM HANDICAP (1800M)
HEIR TO THE THRONE (4) fought on well after enduring a tough wide run when sixth behind Silent Roar at The Valley last start. He’s been racing consistently. BUT IT’S TRUE (5) also didn’t have a lot of luck in that race with first-up fifth in that race. MORTAR PLATOON (1) was slowly away in that race and also was held up when he finished seventh. FIRSTCLASS DREAMER (6) has always shown promise but two runs this time in with a first-up win at Sandown then a second beaten in a photo there suggest he’s in for his best campaign. Former Irish galloper SHARED AMBITION (2) looked sharp in his Flemington jump-out over 800m when he finished third. He’s only had three starts and won his last two with his last one over 2200m at Killarney. ARISTOCRATIC MISS is a consistent mare.
SUGGESTED BET: HEIR TO THE THRONE WIN.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Heir To The Throne $4.40-$3.60
RACE 2: 1.10PM HANDICAP (1600M)
In true Waterhouse/Bott style THE LIFELINE (2) led throughout to win over 1300m at Sandown Hillside. He’ll try and replicate that performance here and should have little trouble leading. 1400m should suit him even better. Kiwi LONG JACK (3) couldn’t have been more impressive winning his debut at the Ballarat Synthetic track where he sat on the speed and despite racing greenly he won comfortably recording the fastest last 200m of the day 11.76 seconds. RECKONING (5) also looked above average in winning his debut at Benalla. SKIDDAW (4) fought on well for third behind smart galloper Power Scheme at The Valley last start. Class runner is HUNTLY CASTLE (1) who is resuming from a spell after 1800m Flemington win.
SUGGESTED BET: THE LIFELINE EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Huntly Castle $4.80-$4.60; Long Jack $3.20-$3
RACE 3: 1.45PM PLATE (1000M)
Brilliant short course sprinter I AM IMMORTAL (1) resumes and recent jump-outs suggest he’s lost none of the dash which saw him win his first two starts at this track over 1000m and 1100m in the Blue Diamond Preview and Preludes before he led and tired when seventh in the Blue Diamond. Sydney colt CARDIFF (3) is also speedy and he followed a close-up sixth behind Dawn Passage in a stakes race at Rosehill with a Hawkesbury win. MOLDOVA (7) has speed and has form around some smart horses. Adelaide sprinter GARNER (5) is racing in great fashion. He’ll sit off the speed and look to charge home as he did when successful in Adelaide last start. LESAGE (10), MAKTAABA (9) and LUCIFER’S REWARD (2) all have talent.
SUGGESTED BET: I AM IMMORTAL THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: I Am Immortal $3.10-$3.20 ($3,000 @ $3.10); Garner $10-$8; Maktabba $8.50-$6
RACE 4: 2.20PM HANDICAP (1400M
HAUT BRION HER (2) looked the likely winner in the run but was run down by a smart mare in Tofane when second to her at The Valley. She’ll go forward again and has had one start at 1400m for a win. MYSTERY LOVE (6) ran on well for first-up third three lengths away in that race. She’ll meet Haut Brion her three kilos better and from barrier two should take up a good position on the speed. That was the first loss in her four starts. SHOKORA (5) was held up for a run when fourth behind My Pendant this track and distance last start. She’ll also get a good on speed run. FABRIC (12) ran on for a solid third at The Valley behind Algadon Miss ove 1200m and will be better suited over 1400m. Chris Waller’s SO TAKEN (8) is a Group 3 placegetter. MIRETTE (1) is a classy mare resuming from a spell.
SUGGESTED BET: HAUT BRION HER THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Mirette $8.50-$7.50; Haut Brion Her $2.60-$2.40 ($1000 @ $2.30); Zoubo $16-$9.50
RACE 5: 2.55PM HOW NOW STAKES (1200M)
PIPPIE (4) has won her past three starts in brilliant fashion including her past two at this track and distance. She should dominate this race from the outset. She ran .75 seconds faster than DAWN DAWN (10) did on the same program for 1200m. Dawn Dawn should be to the fore in this race. TOFANE (11) produced the fastest closing sectionals for the day to win second-up at The Valley last start. She’s got a touch of class. BELLA MARTINI (8) jumped out strongly at Flemington recently. Forget VICTORY KINGDOM (12) ran at The Valley last start as she missed the start by four lengths. BELLA MARTINI WA mare ANGELIC RULER showed her talent with three placings last autumn in Melbourne behind top class horse. She races well first-up and has had two starts over 1200m for two wins. GREY SHADOW (9) has won four from seven at this track.
SUGGESTED BET: PIPPIE THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pippie $2.50-$2.60-$2.10 ($1000 @ $2.50, $1200 @ $2.40, $2706 win x $15,000 place @ $2.30/$1.35, $2000 @ $2.30, $1000 x (3) @ $2.30)
8) Bella Martini $17-$11; Tofane $11-$7.50. 4c x 3c
RACE 6: 3.35PM MRC FOUNDATION CUP (2000M)
SIKANDARABAD (5) settled a long way back but produced the second fastest last 200m for the day when sixth in the Feehan Stakes behind Homesman after making a run out wide. He loves Caulfield where he’s had four starts for a first, a second and two fourths including the Lawrence stakes two starts ago. He was a third-up winner last campaign here over 2000m. Stablemate SUPER TITUS (11) sat wide but still proved too good when third up winner over 1700m at his last start here. Classy stayer STEEL PRINCE (4) ran on well for fourth in that race and 2000m will suit much better. The Waterhouse/Bott stayer WOLFE (14) has won five of his seven starts and his last start failure on a heavy track at Rosehill should be forgotten as he didn’t handle the going. This is his toughest test but he’s likely to lead and should give a great sight.
SUGGESTED BET: SIKANDARABAD EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sikandarabad $7-$5.50; Wolfe $7-$5.50
RACE 7: 4.15PM SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES (1400M)
BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (14) winning streak of six came to an end in the Memsie Stakes last start but it was an outstanding trial for this. He set a fast speed and weakened to finish sixth working into a strong head wind early beaten only three lengths. He ran 1.22.5 min which was almost two seconds faster than AGE OF CHIVALRY (15) recorded later that day when winning. Begood drops a massive seven kilos. From barrier 3 he should dominate this race and the wetter the better for him. AMPHRITITE (12) finished on well for first-up sixth behind Pippie over 1200m. She likes Caulfield and is two wins from two starts over 1400m. She’ll charge home. Stablemate SO SI BON (5) is flying as a gelding. Followed first-up Aurie’s Star win with a second in the Memsie Stakes. ICONOCLASM (13) loves this track and distance and should get a great on speed run.
SUGGESTED BET: BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: So Si Bon $10-$8.50 ($3500 win x $4000 place @ $8.50/$2.90); Amphitrite $8.50-$7.50; Begood Toya Mother $3.90-$3.10 ($600 @ $3.70)
RACE 8: 4.55PM STAKES (1400M)
KOOWEERUP (1) resumed with an excellent run on third over 1200m at The Valley behind Sassy Salitage a month ago. Step up to 1400m will suit and although she has drawn barrier 15 she’ll have to go back and run on. At her second start she flew home to win at Group 3 level in Adelaide. ACTING (8) defeated Condo’s Express at Echuca and then led throughout to win at Sandown five weeks ago easily. BEAUTY BOLT (11) has won her two starts in good style. WESTPORT (2) was well beaten when she resumed but she’s a 1400m winner in Adelaide and from inside draw will go forward. DESERVED (7) held on well for first-up fourth behind Sassy Salitage over 1200m at The Valley and she’ll be better suited over 1400m. EXCUSED (12) chased home two smart horses in The Lifeline and Soul Patch when third at Sandown last start.
SUGGESTED BET: KOOWEERUP (1) EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kooweerup $5.50-$5; Done By Me $11-$7.50; Fascino $15-$10
RACE 9: 5.35PM HANDICAP (1100M)
LYRE (8) won the Blue Diamond Prelude this track and distance earlier this year. She resumed with sound fourth behind Exhilarates over 1100m with 58kgs and ran on after being held up for a run.
She takes on the older sprinters. James Cummings PLAGUE STONE (5) has had four first-up runs for two firsts and two seconds. Stablemate BADAJOZ (3) has talent and races well fresh. TERBIUM flopped first-up but had a torrid run. ORDER OF COMMAND (1) ended his last preparation with back to back wins at Caulfield and Flemington and Query runner is former Argentinian sprinter TATO KEY (2) who has won 12 of 17 starts and was a dual Group 3 placegetter at Meydan in March. WILLIAM THOMAS (11) likes Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BET: LYRE THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Plague Stone $5-$3.70