Off and Racing: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Randwick
Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson has found plenty of value on George Main Stakes Day at Royal Randwick, including a $10 shot in the opening race.
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ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Heavy 8. Rail: True.
R1 (12.15pm): HIGHWAY HCP (1000m)
OVERVIEW: Pretty open Highway. Back to 1000m doesn’t look ideal for Marokawa but he had no luck at all last start and he seems to get through the wet ground. He can figure late here and I loved his win two back by a big space. I liked the way Feel The Knight has trialled leading in. He went to the line under a nice hold and the second and third horses in the trial have both won since.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to MAROKAWA from FEEL THE KNIGHT.
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R2 (12.55pm): SCHWEPPES HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: I’m happy to bet around the favourite Master Ash. I was on him first-up and I thought he was plain and he hasn’t shown a liking for wet ground in the past. I want to speck a few horses at odds. First-up might be a query with Cisco Bay but his record on soft ground is super. He trialled really well on heavy ground leading in and I expect him to be in the finish. Eugene’s Pick had no luck last start and the step up in trip suits here. She should have beaten home the likes of Master Ash last time out. Lisdoonvarna was good with the big weight fresh and she is another one who will really like getting her toe into the ground.
BETTING ADVICE: Can speck CISCO BAY, EUGENE’S PICK and LISDOONVARNA.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lisdoonvarna $11-$9 ($400 e/w @ $11/$3.70)
R3 (1.30pm): SHOOT OUT MILE (1600m)
OVERVIEW: Looks a nice race for Junipal. He was a good thing beaten last start. I concede that was set up for the backmarkers but his last two runs have both been really good and he gets through heavy ground. Dealmaker is absolutely flying and the only knock I have is the real heavy track and whether he is at home on it. He has also drawn wide once again. Penske pulled up lame last start and can bounce back despite the big weight, while Articus and Re Edit (wet track a query) both have each-way claims.
BETTING ADVICE: JUNIPAL to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Junipal $8-$5 ($200 e/w @ $6/$2.40, $300 @ $5.50, $500 @ $5)
R4 (2.05pm): TEA ROSE STAKES (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Libertini is a star. The queries of course are 1400m on a genuine heavy track but her mum won up to 1700m. She ran well behind Bivouac on a soft 7 (best late splits of the day!) in the autumn and it’s just whether she is made to work early. Probabeel and Funstar are the other two main hopes.
BETTING ADVICE: LIBERTINI to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Funstar $5-$4.40 ($400 @ $4.80, $500 @ $4.40, $300 @ $4.20)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R5 (2.40pm): BILL RITCHIE HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Hard to go past Cascadian. I think he can win this and then be really competitive in the Epsom. He clocked the quickest last 600m of the race first-up over 1200m and his trial since has been super. The step up to 1400m along with the wet track (won twice on soft ground in France) means he can only run well here. Kolding should have finished closer fresh when held up for most of the straight. He looks to have returned well and just needs to get through the ground. Archedemus was disappointing first-up but he is a better horse on wet ground and can jump out of the ground here. His form last prep was strong (came a long way in a short space).
BETTING ADVICE: CASCADIAN to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Star Of The Seas $8-$6.50, Cascadian $4.60-$4 ($300 @ $4)
R6 (3.15pm): THE SHORTS (1100m)
OVERVIEW: I must admit I wasn’t as sold as everyone that ‘Redzel was back’ after his fresh win. It was an on-pace day and, personally, I just want to see him do it again this prep. Having said that, this sets up really well for him leading without a lot of pressure on a wet track and he can easily win again. Pierata was the run of the day fresh where he clocked some super sectionals on a day where it was very hard to make ground. He seems to excel on wet ground and he just has to reproduce now to be hard to beat. I’m a huge fan of Classique Legend but I have to be against him here at the price of $4.20 on a few fronts. One is, his only defeat (albeit wide and working) was on a heavy track, secondly, he is first-up on a testing track and, thirdly, he is a horse that carries condition and comes from a stable where they liked to build into a prep and not have them wound up fresh. If he wins this, that says a lot about his chances in The Everest.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to REDZEL but track pattern key.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Redzel $6-$4.80 ($1,500 @ $6, $400 @ $6, $300 @ $6, $1,500 @ $5, $300 @ $5), Pierata $4.40-$4.80-$4.60 ($930 @ $4.80, $800 @ $4.80, $300 @ $4.80)
R7 (3.55pm): COLGATE STAKES (1600m)
OVERVIEW: Pretty even race and track pattern on the day could be vital. Avilius (wide and hard to make ground) had excuses last start and getting back onto a heavy deck (where he is two from two) looks suitable. He gets another chance. What you see is what you get with Happy Clapper. He was good fresh and has trialled well since. His form over the mile at Randwick is strong and he just wants the track to dry a touch. Dreamforce and Samadoubt were both on the right part of the track last start but they bolted in and they probably just don’t want it too wet. Dreamforce ran second in a Doncaster but I still want to see him run a strong mile. Verry Elleegant can improve but needs to.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to AVILIUS.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Happy Clapper $4.60-$5, Avilius $2.80-$3.60 ($650 @ $3.10), Dreamforce $11-$4.20 ($310 @ $9.50, $334 @ $7, $445 @ $5.50, $500 @ $5)
R8 (4.35pm): KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000m)
OVERVIEW: He is not well off at the weights under the conditions of this race but I was taken by the first-up run of Supernova and this looks a logical target if he gets a run. He is also in at Cauflield, so which way does he go? The $7 seems acceptable and he was good off a very slow tempo first-up and the trial since (very slow time) was pleasing. Come Play With Me is very likeable but $3.50 seems short enough. He beat all bar the subsequent Wyong Gold Cup winner Wu Gok last start. He will be up on speed and hard to get past again. I loved the way Big Duke trialled leading into this. He will give them a big start but watch for him late. The wet track suits and he normally runs well fresh.
BETTING ADVICE: SUPERNOVA to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Supernova $6-$7-$6.50 ($310 @ $7, $500 @ $6)
R9 (5.15pm): E-GROUP SECURITY HCP (1200m)
OVERVIEW: I think this is a race in three between Prime Candidate, You Make Me Smile and Greyworm. Greyworm got the better of You Make Me Smile last start but the latter gets a 1.5kg swing in the weights and the in-form Tommy Berry goes aboard. He is also a heavy track winner at Randwick. Greyworm just draws off the track a touch but it might be OK by this time of the day. Prime Candidate didn’t run out the 1400m last start but back to 1200m here and it’s just a case of whether he handles the heavy ground. He didn’t trial that well on heavy ground earlier in his career but I don’t think he was going anywhere near as well as he is now. Star Reflection can run well at odds but I’m against Roheryn, who I think has been a touch overrated by the bookies here.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to YOU MAKE ME SMILE at the price.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Improvement $11-$7 ($1,000 @ $11, $1,000 @ $10, $200 e/w @ $9/$3.20)
TURF TALK
Ray Thomas and Matt Jones discuss their best bets for the weekend.
MJ: The Sydney Spring Carnival officially kicks off on Saturday and once again an Everest lead-up (The Shorts) will co-headline the day with a Group 1. Can Samadoubt do it again? I’m banking on the wet track to help Avilius turn the tables this time. He loves it wet and Samadoubt shouldn’t get too far ahead of him this time.
RT: Isn’t Samadoubt flying. If he gets an easy lead, there’s no reason why he can’t win again but with Dreamforce in the race I think there will be a genuine tempo. I’m with you, Matty. Avilius on top but very wary of the Randwick mile specialist happy Clapper.
MJ: The Shorts is stacked with Everest runners and should be a ripping race. I think this is the first time I’ve tipped Pierata on top. His first-up run was the definition of an eye-catcher and he’ll need to be every bit as good as he was that day to run over the top of the rejuvenated Redzel.
RT: There might be a few defections from The Shorts due to the likelihood of a heavy track. But it’s still going to be such an influential race ahead of The Everest. Redzel is so effective on rain-affected going and the Randwick 1100m is right in his sweet spot. Pierata is a massive chances and we’ll get to find out just how good Classique Legend is.
MJ: The Bill Ritchie is also a very influential race because the winner is guaranteed an Epsom run. I think the Godolphin import Cascadian is a big hope based on his last-start effort. But it wouldn’t surprise me if Kolding, Advantage or a fast-finishing Fierce Impact snatch what is a pretty open race.
RT: I’m with Cascadian, too, but the Chris Waller duo of Star Of The Seas and Kolding will be hard to beat. Will you take the shorts about Libertini?
MJ: No way. She’s obviously good and the one to beat but I don’t have enough cash in the bank to load up on her at $1.95. I’ll have my money on Funstar at about the $4.50 mark. She’s already proven on heavy ground and wasn’t suited to a leader-bias track first-up behind a horse (Yeo Dash) that’s heading straight to the Golden Rose.
RT: Libertini did start a $1.18 when she won the other day so is $1.95 value given she’s still racing her own age and sex at level weights? I just think she wins again. What are you tipping in the footy finals?
MJ: Souths and Melbourne. Then both knocked out the week after.