Dan Batten and Tim Michell’s verdict on 30 KFC SuperCoach forwards
As KFC SuperCoaches battle with a rookie crisis, the importance of mid-pricers has never been greater. There’s plenty of depth up forward this year to help compensate for the lack of cheapies.
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Mid-pricers are meant to be avoided at all costs in KFC SuperCoach.
Conventional wisdom will tell you the ‘guns-and-rookies’ approach leads to success and mid-price risks are the fast track to disaster.
However, every year most coaches find themselves tempted by players in the $250,000-$450,000 bracket.
The promise of a breakout campaign is hard to ignore — just ask the 14 per cent of teams who have flocked to Christian Petracca after he monstered 188 against Adelaide in the Marsh Series.
Or those looking at Adelaide’s Chayce Jones, Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw or Sydney’s James Rowbottom with the expectation they’ll spend greater time in midfield.
Devon Smith (47 per cent of teams) has posted premium numbers before and is popular as a result after a knee injury restricted him to seven matches in 2019.
Jack Steven, Bailey Smith and Connor Rozee are other players will top-10 scoring potential, while new roles bring Jon Ceglar, Brad Ebert and Ben Long into consideration.
Tim Michell and Dan Batten provide their verdicts on 30 mid-price forwards of 2020.
Darcy MacPherson (Gold Coast) $443,800 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 81.7 Marsh Series scores: 132, 127
The Suns mid-forward is worth a look after lifting his average from 60 to 81.7 last year. MacPherson went from 14 disposals a game to 18.7 and averaged 6.1 tackles a game. On that trajectory, the 22-year-old will be a contender to finish in the top-10 forwards. Jordan De Goey (87.3) had the 10th-highest average in 2019 of this year’s forwards.
Tim Michell’s verdict: He’s behind Christian Petracca and Connor Rozee in the mid-price pecking order but will be a unique pick.
Patrick Lipinski (Western Bulldogs) $441,500 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 81.3 Marsh Series scores: 71, 97
The bullocking young Bulldog looms as a breakout contender after averaging 92.5 points in the last five rounds of 2019. Lipinski’s average surged from 59.4 in 2018 to 81.3 last season, but whether he can push a 90-plus average will be determined by how much midfield time he gets.
Dan Batten’s verdict: The Dogs signalled their intent in their first Marsh Series game with star trio Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae and Josh Dunkley attending more than 20 centre-bounces, while Lipinski attended the fourth-most with nine. He’s one to look at during the season if he gets greater midfield opportunity.
Christian Petracca (Melbourne) $441,300 FWD 2019 avg: 81.3 Marsh Series scores: 188, 72
Petracca’s KFC SuperCoach popularity skyrocketed after he monstered 188 points against Adelaide in the Marsh Series, racking up 27 contested disposals. The star Demon has been slated for greater midfield time after spending 79 per cent of games in attack last year. That doesn’t guarantee a scoring spike but his effort against the Crows was impossible to ignore.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Petracca’s best SuperCoach average is 81.5 but he’s got potential to go much higher. The only danger is Simon Goodwin fancies a match-up in attack and leaves Petracca deep to take advantage. The pre-season evidence suggests he’s worth the risk.
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Brandan Parfitt (Geelong) $427,400 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 78.7 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 58
Parfitt’s SuperCoach average dipped in 2019, posting 78.7 points a game last season compared to 80 the previous year. He showed he was capable of producing premium totals, posting six 95-plus scores, but also fell below 70 on six occasions. Parfitt was left out of the Cats’ opening Marsh clash but is tipped to return following a standout showing in a VFL scratch match.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Is too good to be on the outer, but will he be the beneficiary of Tim Kelly’s midfield time? It appears Quinton Narkle may be ahead of him in centre-square pecking order.
Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide) $422,100 FWD 2019 avg: 77.7 Marsh Series scores: 108, 70
The Power rising star scored five KFC SuperCoach tons in his debut campaign, including a season-best 119 in Round 21 against Sydney. Rozee has been trialled in midfield during the off-season and amassed 108 against Brisbane Lions in Port Adelaide’s opening game of the Marsh Series. From 77.7 points last year, his average is only heading north.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Rate Rozee as both a player and a SuperCoach pick. How many players who spent the majority of the season in the forward 50 averaged more than him last year? In four games last year where he had 20 disposals, he scored 102-119. That bodes well for a potential spike playing further afield.
Jack Martin (Carlton) $420,800 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 77.5 Marsh Series scores: 75, 78
While the former Sun has never averaged more than 82 in his six AFL seasons, his Marsh Series performance was very encouraging. Martin reached 75 points from 45 per cent game time, tallying nine disposals, five tackles and slotting a goal. Could the Blues recruit blossom into a SuperCoach premium at his new club?
Dan Batten’s verdict: Looks like a pre-season trap to me. Can’t see Martin going above 85 playing as an outside midfielder.
Jonathon Ceglar (Hawthorn) $417,000 RUC-FWD 2019 avg: 76.8 Marsh Series scores: 80, 101
Earmarked for the No. 1 ruck role at Hawthorn with Ben McEvoy to play predominantly in defence. There’s always going to be the risk coach Alastair Clarkson will swing McEvoy into the middle, but don’t let that deter you from considering Ceglar. The 29-year-old averaged 36 hit outs and 95.7 points in the last three rounds of 2019 when McEvoy was trialled as a key backman.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Love the idea of having potential ruck back-up via a Charlie Comben
($117,300, RUC-FWD) swing, but wouldn’t you trade Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy if they’re injured? Three games isn’t a big enough sample to pick him with much confidence.
Bailey Smith (Western Bulldogs) $415,900 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 76.6 Marsh Series scores: 80, 86
Bailey Smith has the makings of a SuperCoach star of the future after recording an average of 76.6 in his debut season. Smith is a similar case to teammate Patrick Lipinski given there are limited spots up for grabs in the stacked Bulldogs midfield.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Expect him to build on his first-season average, but not enough for him to enter considerations.
Brad Ebert (Port Adelaide) $415,200 FWD 2019 avg: 76.5 Marsh Series scores: 43, 47
The Port Adelaide veteran averaged less than 80 for the first time since 2011 last year as he was restricted to 11 games by concussion. Ebert spent the majority of time in attack upon his return and his average dipped from 100 after Round 6 to 76.5. He’d played 21 or 22 games in nine consecutive seasons before last year, so his durability isn’t an issue.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Well worth a look. There’s spots up for grabs in Port Adelaide’s midfield and Ebert is expected to filter back into the middle in the absence of injured vice-captain Ollie Wines. Posted a career-best average of 100.7 two years ago, which would rank him third of this year’s forwards had it been last season.
Chad Wingard (Hawthorn) $412,300 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 75.9 Marsh Series scores: 56, 50
Wingard had an injury-interrupted campaign in his first year at the Hawks and his SuperCoach average suffered as a consequence. However, spending more time in midfield, Wingard averaged 26.5 disposals, six tackles, 5.2 clearances and 90.8 points a game in the final four rounds. The 26-year-old finished with 15 touches and 56 points in a promising display in Hawthorn’s pre-season clash with St Kilda.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Don’t count him out. Wingard has averaged more than 88 points across a season four times in his career and he is more than capable of that at full fitness.
Liam Baker (Richmond) $403,900 DEF-FWD 2019 avg: 74.4 Marsh Series scores: 120, 46
Baker managed 85 or more in six of his first eight matches last year after playing three games in 2018. He played a more advanced role in Richmond’s Marsh Series clash against Collingwood, amassing 120 points. However, the Tigers were without their State of Origin stars in Wangaratta.
Tim Michell’s verdict: His dual-position eligibility is a bonus, but Sydney’s Jordan Dawson ($467,800) has the same DEF-FWD swing and greater scoring potential. Pass.
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Lance Franklin (Sydney) $394,200 FWD 2019 avg: 72.6 Marsh Series scores: DNP
Veteran superstar Lance Franklin was flying at the start of pre-season before he was forced to undergo surgery on his knee, putting him in doubt for Round 1. If he is ready to go he could prove an inspired selection, facing Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast and Carlton to start the season.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Couldn’t go lower than last year but it’d be a Buddy big risk coming off an interrupted pre-season.
Tom Lynch (Richmond) $388,800 FWD 2019 avg: 71.6 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 111
It’s feast or famine in SuperCoach for key forwards. Lynch posted three consecutive tons (103, 116 and 132) from rounds 17-19 last year, but also had a stretch of seven games in eight where he scored 57 or less.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Only consider key forwards mid-season when they have a favourable run of fixtures ahead. The Tigers finish 2020 with an appealing run against Adelaide, Carlton, Hawthorn and Fremantle during SuperCoach finals.
Tom McDonald (Melbourne) $387,000 FWD 2019 avg: 71.3 Marsh Series scores: 139, 50
Like his club, McDonald sparkled in 2018 and struggled last season. His Marsh Series hitout against Adelaide was reminiscent of his form two seasons ago when he averaged 97.6 points per game, finishing with 17 disposals, seven marks, three goals and 139 points.
Dan Batten’s verdict: He’s a nice forward smokie given the Demons are likely to rise this year. Would take a braver man than me to go through with it, though.
Blake Acres (Fremantle) $384,400 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 70.8 Marsh Series scores: 111, DNP
Our first look at Acres the Docker in the Marsh Series was eye-catching. The ex-Saint had 31 disposals, six clearances and six inside-50s against Carlton in a performance which earned praise from new coach Justin Longmuir. If only he hadn’t pinged a hamstring at training a few days later.
Tim Michell’s verdict: He was right in the mix after his efforts against the Blues until being injured. Look at Andrew Brayshaw instead if you want a Docker.
Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle) $382,800 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 70.5 Marsh Series scores: 94, 102
He has been promised greater midfield time and we saw the benefits against Carlton in the Marsh Series when he tallied 19 disposals, seven tackles and four clearances on his way to 94 points. Entering his third season, the former No. 2 pick is a potential breakout contender but it’s worth tracking his midfield time when Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters return in Marsh game two. He has scored 90 points or more just three times in his 39 games so far.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Hasn’t shown enough to date to suggest he will elevate himself into forward premium status – even with more centre-bounce action.
Jack Riewoldt (Richmond) $374,100 FWD 2019 avg: 68.9 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 27
The one key forward you could consider. Riewoldt’s worst SuperCoach season from 2010-2018 was 81.5 and he averaged more than 90 in four of those years. The gun Tiger dropped $87,800 and $131,100 from his starting price in 2017 and 2018. After bottoming out at $324,100 two years ago, he averaged 113.8 from Round 15 onwards.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Keep him in mind for a mid-season trade. Although from this starting price, it’s unlikely Riewoldt will come much cheaper.
Jack Steven (Geelong) $361,700 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 74 Marsh Series scores: DNP, 97
There is no doubt the former Saint is underpriced entering 2020 after dealing with injury and mental health setbacks. From all reports he is in a good space at his new club despite a calf blow which halted his first pre-season as a Cat. While he is unlikely to return to his former SuperCoach glory, a 90-plus season average is a definite possibility with midfield minutes up for grabs in Tim Kelly’s absence.
Dan Batten’s verdict: He was in my side early in pre-season but his recent calf blow raised concerns over his durability. We will have a greater idea after he debuts in the hoops in the Marsh Series.
Jack Higgins (Richmond) $358,800 FWD 2019 avg: 66.1 Marsh Series scores: 22, DNP
The small forward made an encouraging return for the Tigers in Wangaratta after undergoing brain surgery last year. Higgins was a nice cash cow two years ago but doesn’t have the SuperCoach-friendly role which makes other mid-price options appealing.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Great to see him back out there, but there’s better SuperCoach options.
Tarryn Thomas (North Melbourne) $339,900 FWD 2019 avg: 62.6 Marsh Series scores: 61, 52
Thomas provided plenty of excitement for Roos fans in his debut season and while he was an inconsistent scorer, he showed glimpses of his SuperCoach ceiling, registering scores of 109 and 107 – the latter coming in just his fifth game.
Dan Batten’s verdict: He’ll be great to watch, but not from a SuperCoach perspective. Pass.
James Rowbottom (Sydney) $337,600 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 62.6 Marsh Series scores: 51, 76
Yet another player forecast to spend more time in the engine room as Sydney looks to surround Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy with its future midfield guns. Rowbottom showed promise after his opening three matches last year, managing six scores of 70 or more and a season-best of 99.
Tim Michell’s verdict: A player with huge promise, but after five scores of 47 or less last year, it’s a no for SuperCoach.
Jon Patton (Hawthorn) $337,000 RUC-FWD 2019 avg: N/A Marsh Series scores: 74, 40
Hawthorn fans are right to be excited about the presence the former No. 1 draft pick will bring to their forward line. You’d have to be a supreme optimist to pick a player who last featured in Round 15, 2018, in SuperCoach though.
Tim Michell’s verdict: No thanks. Ceglar is the man if you’re intent on having RUC-FWD swing.
Devon Smith (Essendon) $335,800 FWD-MID 2019 avg: 68.7 Marsh Series scores: 87, 117
Playing injured last season before being sidelined, Smith didn’t get close to the lofty heights of his 2018 campaign, where he averaged 22 touches, 8.4 tackles (ranked first in the competition) and 97.9 points. While he started slow in his first pre-season game, the tackle machine finished with a more than respectable score of 87.
Dan Batten’s verdict: A potential top-six forwards at this price? Sign me up. Tim Michell considers him a must-have and I couldn’t agree more.
Josh Kennedy (West Coast) $335,600 FWD 2019 avg: 61.8 Marsh Series scores: 122, 29
After three consecutive seasons where he averaged 92 or more, Kennedy hasn’t been a SuperCoach factor in the past two years. He kicked five (105 SuperCoach), six (122) and seven (129) goals in the matches where he posted triple figures in the past two years and it’s dangerous to be reliant on a player who needs to kick a bag to score well.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Encouraging signs in the first game of the Marsh Series but he’s been too hit-and-miss in the past two years to consider.
Ben Long (St Kilda) $283,100 FWD 2019 avg: 52.1 Marsh Series scores: 64, 85
A move to defence has put Saints dasher Long into the SuperCoach frame. He was solid across halfback, scoring 64 points from 11 disposals in the Marsh Series against Hawthorn. However, this was without Dylan Roberton, who is set to return to St Kilda’s back-six.
Dan Batten’s verdict: With Hunter Clark already playing as a defensive runner, it’s difficult to see Long scoring consistently.
Chayce Jones (Adelaide) $271,500 FWD 2019 avg: 50 Marsh Series scores: 74, 34
New Crows coach Matthew Nicks is clearly a fan of the first-round draftee, who played eight matches in his first AFL campaign. The Tasmanian didn’t have a great impact as a pressure forward but impressed in Round 23 when he scored 86 playing predominantly as an on-baller. Nicks wants him in the middle more often this year which is a great sign.
Tim Michell’s verdict: If only he was a bit cheaper. You’re in no-man’s land picking a player at that price as he’s not going to be a keeper and needs to score more than other rookies to make money.
Joe Daniher (Essendon) $270,400 FWD 2019 avg: 62.3 Marsh Series scores: DNP
Daniher has managed just 11 games in the past two seasons due to his troublesome groin and there is no guarantee we will see the Bomber spearhead in the first half of this season. The 25-year-old averaged 86 points per game in his last full season in 2017.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Don’t. Even. Think. About. It.
Brett Bewley (Fremantle) $252,700 FWD 2019 avg: 51.7 Marsh Series scores: 93, 58
A mature-age recruit from the VFL, Bewley played seven games in 2019 with a top score of 68. It’s a worry that was his only total of more than 60 and four of his games were below 50. But the Dockers have been singing his praises all off-season and his Marsh Series 93 was one of the best scores of those close to the top echelon of the rookie price bracket.
Tim Michell’s verdict: Would love to say yes, but last year would suggest otherwise. James Aish, Andrew Brayshaw, Blake Acres and Adam Cerra might chew up the extra midfield points on offer as Longmuir revamps the Dockers anyway.
Cameron Rayner (Brisbane Lions) $251,800 FWD 2019 avg: 46.4 Marsh Series scores: 60, 61
Rayner drew comparisons to Dustin Martin when he was the first name read out in the 2017 draft. However, the young Lion averages 21 points per game less than Martin after 23 games. This is largely due to the 20-year-old’s role as a small forward, an undesirable position for KFC SuperCoach. Rayner averaged a whopping 120 points per game at the under-18 carnival in his draft year as a damaging forward-mid, so it’s a matter of if, not when, he gets more centre-bounce action.
Dan Batten’s verdict: Until the Lions move Rayner into the midfield he cannot be considered, and it’s a tough midfield to break into.
Aaron vandenBerg (Melbourne) $248,000 FWD-MID 2019 avg: N/A Marsh Series scores: 100, 9
Aaron vandenBerg had a positive return to the Demons side in their Marsh Series hitout against Adelaide, having played just seven games in three seasons due to a recurring foot injury. The big-bodied Demon finished with 19 disposals, five tackles and raised the bat for a SuperCoach ton. He’s likely to be used up forward with short stints in the guts if he overcomes his injury woes.
Dan Batten’s verdict: An interesting option, and he is training less in a bid to keep his foot injury at bay. Monitor his progress in game two of the Marsh Series.
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