KFC SuperCoach crystal ball: Expert predictions for top-six scorers in every position
Is there a harder KFC SuperCoach task than predicting the top scorers in defence and up forward this year? After Jake Lloyd, Lachie Whitfield and Dustin Martin, it's shaping as a raffle. Here's who our experts have tipped.
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There’s no greater challenge in KFC SuperCoach than predicting the year’s top scorers.
Who could have forecast Josh Dunkley being the season’s third most-prolific midfielder and No. 1 forward after he averaged 85.8 to Round 6 last year?
Or that Rowan Marshall would emerge as one of the year’s most reliable forwards after he was left out of St Kilda’s Round 1 team?
Positional changes have added to the enormity of the task, with five of last year’s top-six forwards losing dual-position eligibility.
Only Fremantle’s Michael Walters, the fifth-ranked forward of 2019, has retained forward status.
Dunkley, Patrick Dangerfield, Tim Kelly and Travis Boak are listed as midfielders only, while Marshall has been reassigned as a ruckman after his breakout campaign for St Kilda.
“We are able to determine how much game time a player has spent in a position,” Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne said.
“From there we are able to assign them a relevant position.”
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To be classed as a mid-forward in KFC SuperCoach, players must spend a minimum of 35 per cent playing time in each role.
Dangerfield (32 per cent forward), Dunkley (23 per cent), Boak (22 per cent), Kelly (12 per cent) and Marshall (three per cent) failed to reach the threshold.
Selecting as many of the top-six as possible at the start of the campaign is crucial to SuperCoach success.
It means coaches can prioritise trades to upgrade rookies, boost their team value and ultimately target rankings glory and the $50,000 grand prize.
Experts Tim Michell, Al Paton and Dan Batten have put their necks on the line by predicting this year’s top scorers in each position.
DEFENCE
How could you go past Jake Lloyd? The Sydney Swans half-back flanker has averaged 112 and 108.9 in the past two years and is the most expensive defender of 2020 by almost $20,000 from Richmond’s Bachar Houli ($571,600). The only question mark is whether the development of fellow backman Jordan Dawson, who averaged 96.4 in the last five rounds of 2019, limits Lloyd’s scoring. James Sicily finished fifth for total points last season despite struggling when used in a deep forward role and should relish a return to defence. There are few scorers as reliable as West Coast’s Shannon Hurn, who recorded a career-best 85.2 per cent kicking efficiency last year. That’s gold in KFC SuperCoach. Rory Laird still finished third for total points despite his average dipping from 108.2 to 96.8.
Predicted top six: 1. Jake Lloyd (Sydney, $591,400) 2. James Sicily (Hawthorn, $509,500) 3. Shannon Hurn (West Coast, $562,200) 4. Zac Williams (GWS Giants, $551,700) 5. Rory Laird (Adelaide, $525,800) 6. Caleb Daniel (Western Bulldogs, $537,900).
2019’s best: Jake Lloyd (2396 points, avg. 108.9), Tom Stewart (2160, 98.2), Rory Laird (2130, 96.8), Daniel Rich (2130, 96.8), James Sicily (2064, 93.8), Dane Rampe (2041, 97.2).
VOTES
Al Paton: Lloyd, Hurn, Sicily, Ryan, Docherty, Williams.
Dan Batten: Lloyd, Williams, Daniel, Laird, Sicily, Docherty
Tim Michell: Lloyd, Sicily, Hurn, Stewart, Williams, Laird
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MIDFIELDERS
Outside Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy, midfield is where the bulk of your SuperCoach points will come from. There are 31 players listed as midfielders this year who averaged 100 points or more last season, compared to five defenders, three forwards and five ruckmen. Western Bulldogs ball magnet Macrae started 2019 at $689,700 and retained his mantle as the top on-baller by averaging 123.2. The only question mark about dual Brownlow winner Fyfe is how many games he plays, having averaged 19 per season since 2017. Cripps has threatened to break the 120-point barrier in the past two years, posting 119.4 and 117.1. If Carlton continues its resurgence under David Teague, it will only help his scoring. SuperCoaches will hope Tom Mitchell can return to his 2018 exploits and Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley build on their career-best campaigns.
Predicted top six: 1. Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs, $668,900) 2. Nat Fyfe (Fremantle, $651,600) 3. Patrick Cripps (Carlton, $635,900) 4. Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn, $630,900) 5. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions, $658,500) 6. Josh Dunkley (Western Bulldogs, $632,400).
2019’s best: Jack Macrae (2710 points, avg. 123.2), Lachie Neale (2668, 121.3), Josh Dunkley (2562, 116.5), Marcus Bontempelli (2524, 114.7), Adam Treloar (2495, 113.4), Patrick Dangerfield (2419, 115.2).
VOTES
Al Paton: Macrae, Dunkley, Fyfe, Mitchell, Neale, Oliver
Dan Batten: Macrae, Fyfe, Cripps, Kelly, Neale, Mitchell
Tim Michell: Fyfe, Cripps, Mitchell, Macrae, Dangerfield, Neale
RUCKS
Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn have stamped themselves as SuperCoach’s top-two scorers in the past two seasons. Collingwood ruckman Grundy has posted averages of 130 and 130.5, while Gawn has gone 127.5 and 128.4. Forget the doubts about Max Gawn’s knee injury. The gulf between the premier big men and third-ranked Todd Goldstein highlights just how dominant they have been. Todd Goldstein, Reilly O’Brien and Scott Lycett are likely to ruck solo, while Rowan Marshall has proven his ability to amass points quickly and shouldn’t suffer from the arrival of Paddy Ryder at Moorabbin.
Predicted top six: Brodie Grundy (Collingwood, $705,900), Max Gawn (Melbourne, $697,100), Rowan Marshall (St Kilda, $598,700), Todd Goldstein (North Melbourne, $609,400), Reilly O’Brien (Adelaide, $517,400), Scott Lycett (Port Adelaide, $550,600).
2019’s best: Brodie Grundy (2860 points, avg. 130), Max Gawn (2696, 128.4), Todd Goldstein (2469, 112.2), Jarrod Witts (2193, 99.7), Stefan Martin (2030, 92.3), Scott Lycett (1825, 101.4).
VOTES
Al Paton: Grundy, Gawn, Lycett, Goldstein, Marshall, ROB.
Dan Batten: Grundy, Gawn, Marshall, Goldstein, ROB, Naitanui.
Tim Michell: Gawn, Grundy, Marshall, Goldstein, ROB, Lycett.
FORWARDS
Lachie Whitfield (111.3) is the only player listed as a forward this year to average more than 110 in 2019. The GWS running machine and Richmond’s grand final hero Dustin Martin are the most-popular forwards of 2020, selected in 57 per cent of teams. Martin and Whitfield are short odds to finish as the leading forwards of the year. Michael Walters lifted his average from 87.8 to 100.8 last year. Isaac Heeney has averaged at least 94 points in the past three years, while Devon Smith is expected to achieve similar numbers after a knee injury restricted him to seven matches last season. Christian Petracca’s ownership has soared by more than 10 per cent after he monstered 188 in the Marsh Series against Adelaide. The forward line shapes as the toughest position to predict, beyond the big two — Whitfield and Martin.
Predicted top six: Lachie Whitfield (GWS Giants, $604,100), Dustin Martin (Richmond, $543,000), Michael Walters (Fremantle, $547,200), Isaac Heeney (Sydney, $510,700), Devon Smith (Essendon, $335,800), Christian Petracca (Melbourne, $441,300).
2019’s best: Josh Dunkley (2562 points, avg. 116.5), Patrick Dangerfield (2419, 115.2), Tim Kelly (2276, 103.5), Travis Boak (2252, 107.2), Michael Walters (2217, 100.8), Rowan Marshall (2205, 110.3).
VOTES
Al Paton: Whitfield, Martin, Walters, Steven, Heeney, Smith.
Dan Batten: Whitfield, Martin, Walters, Smith, Heeney, Greenwood.
Tim Michell: Whitfield, Martin, Petracca, Parish, Heeney, Walters.