KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom’s verdict on the lineball calls in defence
Jake Lloyd or Rory Laird? Hayden Young or a bottom-price rookie? And who can we trust more, Luke Ryan or James Sicily? The Phantom solves your head-to-head dilemmas in defence.
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Can’t decide between two players? Having trouble with the rookie selections? The Phantom runs the rule over the key dilemmas in defence.
Jake Lloyd (Syd) $591,400 v Rory Laird (Adel) $525,800
They are the best-performed SuperCoach defenders over the past three years.
Lloyd has scored 6694 points in this period and Laird 6499.
West Coast skipper Shannon Hurn is way back in third spot with 5949.
With averages of 103 and 101 respectively, Lloyd and Laird are the only two SuperCoach-eligible defenders this year to have averaged three figures since 2016.
And both of their sides play five fellow non-finalists in the opening seven rounds.
So, with Laird available for $66k less than Lloyd in 2020, is the answer as obvious as it looks?
Not quite. But I’m sure you knew that already.
After posting SuperCoach tons in 13 of the final 15 matches of the 2018, Lloyd passed the 100-point mark 15 times to Round 18 last year.
The neat-kicking Swan averaged 32 disposals and 117 points to Round 12 but, with the introduction of Jordan Dawson’s more permanent role in defence, his average fell to less than 100 from Round 14.
A closer look reveals Lloyd still won plenty of football, but his ability to impact the game as the chief – and only – distributor was hindered.
Laird’s struggles were even more obvious.
The ball-winning defender tallied four less disposals per game than he did in 2018 and only broke the 100-point barrier twice after Adelaide’s Round 14 bye.
It’s no coincidence his side won the same amount of games in the run-home.
But Laird was still a top-four SuperCoach defender in what was a year to forget for his club.
Is that the floor to the 26-year-old’s output?
After a summer of rejuvenation at West Lakes and new coach Matthew Nicks’ emphasis on improving his side’s ability to create – and score from – turnovers, I’m confident it is.
At least more confident – even if only slightly – than I am in Lloyd’s ability to maintain his 109-point average, with a number of unknowns in a new-look Sydney defence, from the get-go.
THE VERDICT: Laird. They might meet as the year progresses, but in a game which is all about maximising your money, I expect Laird to average more than his price suggests from Round 1. With Lloyd, I can’t be so sure.
Zac Williams (GWS) $551,700 – Yes or No?
Whether it was dashing off half-back or winning the ball through the midfield – in the absence of a number of star teammates – Williams was a prolific SuperCoach scorer in 2019.
After missing the entire 2018 season through injury, Williams bounced back in a big way, posting 11 SuperCoach tons – five in excess of 120 – in a career-best year.
The 25-year-old then impressed in the Giants’ finals campaign, with two performances in particular highlighting further his ability in different areas of the ground.
In the semi-final win over Brisbane, Williams starred in defence, tallying 17 disposals – all of them effective – eight intercepts, six tackles, 456 metres gained and a game-high 137 points.
A week later in the preliminary final, the long-kicking right-footer was, arguably, the best midfielder on the ground, finishing with 25 disposals, 16 contested possessions, 10 clearances and 115 points.
And that’s all you need to know.
Those two performances suggest Williams is a safe SuperCoach premium selection, regardless of where he plays, this season.
Yes, he may have averaged 24 more points per game in the six home-and-away matches Lachie Whitfield missed, but his star teammate was there for the major round and he’ll, again, be used more forward-of-centre this year.
Williams may not feature in the centre square as often in 2020, given the return of Callan Ward and Stephen Coniglio, but, on the evidence, that’s unlikely to matter.
THE VERDICT: Yes. Don’t expect Williams’ scoring to deviate much and, as a result, he should hold his price for most of the year.
Luke Ryan (Freo) $520,500 v James Sicily (Haw) $509,500
There’s no better way to explain the similarities in the 2019 numbers of Ryan and Sicily than giving them to you straight.
So here are the numbers.
They are intercept stars and attacking weapons, rating among the best in the competition for both areas.
Ryan took 65 more kick-ins than Sicily last year, playing on 48 per cent of the time.
It allowed him more opportunity to boost his numbers and impact the play.
A huge tick, right? Absolutely.
But, with Sicily’s positive differentials in effective kicks and total disposals, it proves just how efficient the Hawk is in general play.
Taking out the injury-affected, 48-point score in Round 19, his last match for the year, Ryan’s average increases to 99.
But he played in defence, mostly in his preferred SuperCoach-friendly role, for the entirety of 2019.
The same cannot be said for Sicily.
To the frustration of SuperCoaches Australia-wide, Alastair Clarkson used Sicily inside 50 and as a lockdown defender on the opposition’s best forward at times last year, resulting in some inconsistent scoring.
His final three scores of 140, 47 and 124 sum up his year perfectly.
But Clarkson is back in the good books, at least for now, after, through his list management team, adding key-defender Sam Frost and tall-forward Jon Patton to his side in the trade period.
It appears – fingers crossed – the opportunity is there for Sicily to play the floating-tall role across half-back on a permanent basis in 2020.
And in that role in 2018, Sicily averaged the second-most intercept possessions and metres gained in the competition and averaged 105 points per game.
THE VERDICT: Sicily. Ryan might be the safer option, but Sicily should prove the better one.
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Tom Doedee (Adel) $273,700 v Dylan Roberton (StK) $260,400
Doedee and Roberton are on track to return to the field this season, but their recent absence has been for very different reasons.
The young Crow defender spent all but one quarter of 2019 on the sidelines after tearing the ACL in his left knee against the Hawks in Round 1.
Roberton, on the other hand, has battled serious heart issues over the past two years, restricting the 28-year-old to just four matches since 2017.
The scoring potential of the returning, underpriced defenders is similar, however.
After biding his time in the SANFL for the first two years on the Crows’ list, Doedee made an opening-round debut in 2018 and played 20 games, posting SuperCoach tons in six of them.
If you take out the injury-affected 24 against Brisbane in Round 18, the 22-year-old averaged 85 points per game.
He was also injured in Round 22, fracturing his collarbone in the third-quarter but still finished with 79 points from 63 per cent game time.
And even in the 30 minutes of football he played last year, his scoring power was obvious, with the intercept star tallying 56 points in 27 per cent game-time.
The more-experienced Roberton, however, has done it more than once.
After averaging 90 points per game in 2015, Roberton enjoyed a career-best year in 2017, starring across halfback and finishing runner-up to Seb Ross in the Saints’ best-and-fairest.
The 194cm right-footer posted eight SuperCoach tons and scored more than 80 in all-but five matches for the year.
Going on their last full seasons – Doedee’s first – Roberton is clearly the better player on the rebound.
Roberton’s 464 metres gained was far more than Doedee’s 267 and it was a similar story in rebound-50s (5.6 to 3.2) and score involvements (3.5 to 2.3).
But does Roberton’s attacking history outweigh the concern over his role in a St Kilda defence, which now features Dougal Howard, Josh Battle, Jimmy Webster and Callum Wilkie?
No. Not with Tom Doedee stepping straight into Alex Keath’s role – the one which was his initially – at the Crows.
THE VERDICT: You could have both but if you’re choosing, then Doedee. A fit Doedee will lead the Crows for intercepts in 2020. There’s more competition for the high-ball – and role – at the Saints.
Hayden Young (Freo) $180,300 v Basement-price rookie
Speaking recently on Perth radio, injured Fremantle defender Alex Pearce described his new teammate, Young, as “really talented and a really great kid”.
And one who won’t be content with a year of development in the WAFL.
“You can tell that he’s really keen to not wait (for selection) and really try and push his way in and play senior footy as soon as he can,” Pearce said.
The damaging left-footer, who ranked first for intercept possessions and second for metres gained, averaged 107 points at the national under-18 championships for Vic Country.
Young, regarded as the best kick in this year’s draft class, went even bigger in the NAB League, averaging 129 points per game and fits new coach Justin Longmuir’s want for an increase in skill level at the Dockers.
And, on top of an impressive junior career, any kid who mentions playing kick-to-kick to get the SuperCoach points up – even if as a joke – in their first interview as an AFL player, becomes an instant favourite of The Phantom’s.
Trent Rivers ($117,300) should get a chance for Melbourne in the Marsh Community Series while second-year Cat Jacob Kennerley ($123,000) has had a great summer.
But their opportunity – and role – might not be any greater than Young’s and they’re unlikely to match his scoring.
THE VERDICT: Young. Sydney’s Will Gould should be your first picked rookie-price player in defence, but don’t hesitate on spending the extra cash on Young next. At this early stage, anyway.