The best SuperCoach mid-price selection from every club for 2020
Devon Smith and Jack Steven are among the most-popular SuperCoach picks of 2020. But who are the other mid-price gambles worth a look? Here’s our verdict on more than 20 options.
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There is no greater temptation in KFC SuperCoach than a mid-priced gamble.
Try talking yourself out of choosing a player priced below their potential output who delivers a faultless pre-season.
Or one coming back from a season ravaged by injury whose price has plummeted.
History tells us mid-priced risks are commonly a disaster waiting to happen.
Rarely does a player in the $300,000-$450,000 bracket emerge as a likely top-six or top-eight finisher in their respective position.
Last year, West Coast grand final hero Dom Sheed ($394,100, average 95), Brodie Smith ($332,500, avg 88.6), Brad Crouch ($418,000, avg 98.4) and James Worpel ($395,700, avg 97) were worth the punt.
MORE MID-PRICE ANALYSIS:
AFL SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom looks at all the mid-price value in defence
AFL SuperCoach 2020: All the mid-price standouts in the midfield
SuperCoach 2020: The mid-price ruckmen that can make an impact
AFL SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom looks at the long list of mid-price value in the forward line
KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom names the mid-price players to add to your watchlist
But there were just as many mid-price misses, with Aaron Hall ($389,200, avg 75.8), Anthony Miles ($342,000, avg 83.8) and Tom Liberatore ($300,400, avg 82.4) unable to regularly produce premium scores.
Outside Devon Smith and Jack Steven, the top mid-pricers this season are less obvious than last year.
But there’s enough value that if you choose wisely, you should be handsomely rewarded.
Here’s the top mid-priced pick from every club.
Adelaide
Tom Lynch (FWD) $459,900 2019 avg.: 84.7
Mobile forward Lynch has averaged 80.5 points or more in the past five seasons. He last year posted seven scores of 86+ from 16 matches including four tons. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling (his top score in the past five years is 133) but is a consistent performer who has averaged 20 disposals, six marks and a goal a game in the past three years. Consider him if you’re after an uber POD.
VERDICT: Only if you’re desperate for a forward POD.
Bryce Gibbs $375,100 MID 2019 average: 69.1
Gibbs had only once averaged less than 80 since his debut season before last year’s fall from grace. The veteran Crow was one of the victims of Adelaide’s struggles which led to Don Pyke being sacked, only playing 12 AFL games. New Crows coach Matthew Nicks is bullish about Gibbs’ importance to his side, predicting a return to form for the 30-year-old playing as a freewheeling half-back flanker. That role should suit his game, although he’ll be competing with Rory Laird and Wayne Milera for possession. He’s one to watch closely in the Marsh Series but comes with a very awkward price.
VERDICT: Only if you’re short on cash after spending big up forward and in defence.
Brisbane Lions
Callum Ah Chee (MID) $311,700 2019 avg.: 82
The former top-10 draft pick has been traded from Gold Coast to Brisbane as he looks to realise his undoubted potential. His best average in four seasons with the Suns was 82 last year, although he only featured once. Otherwise, it was 59.7 in 2016. Playing for a team which will win more often and slated for a SuperCoach friendly-role at halfback, this could be his breakout campaign.
VERDICT: He should improve at the Lions but not at that starting price.
Carlton
Jack Martin (FWD-MID) $420,800 2019 avg.: 77.5
Another player who left Metricon Stadium at the end of last season without reaching the heights he was tipped to reach as a junior. Choose Martin as a forward if he interests you as he’d need to increase his output from 77.5 points a game to 100+ as a midfielder. The Blues have been impressed by Martin’s physicality and tackles are a quick source of SuperCoach points.
VERDICT: The Blues are bullish but it’s a big leap for him to become a premium.
Collingwood
Rupert Wills (MID) $337,900 2019 avg.: 69.1
Job security is the major concern with Wills, however he did play the last five matches of 2019, including Collingwood’s qualifying and preliminary finals. Wills’ greatest asset is his strength and he laid 25 tackles in the Magpies’ two finals. He only had more than 20 disposals once in nine games and will need to increase his possession average to be a worthwhile pick.
VERDICT: Prefer Brayden Sier who is $90,000 cheaper and could play the same role.
Jeremy Howe $431,900 DEF 2019 average: 79.5
Howe had averaged 90+ in three consecutive seasons before dropping under 80 points a game last year as Darcy Moore took on his role as an intercepting defender for the Magpies. The high-flyer battled injury issues throughout last year and only hit top gear late in the campaign. Howe scored five tons in his last seven matches (including finals) and scores of 106, 115, 116 and 130 in four of his last five games of 2019. He dropped to as low as $356,700 last season and could be a bargain D6 if you can nab him at a similar price in 2020.
VERDICT: Make him a mid-season downgrade target.
Essendon
Devon Smith (FWD-MID) $335,800 2019 avg.: 68.7
Smith should be one of the first players picked with dual-position eligibility and a price tag well below his capabilities. His 2019 campaign was ruined by knee problems but he averaged 97.9 points a game the previous year. If he can replicate those numbers, he’ll likely be a top-six forward in 2020. The Bombers have been buoyed by his pre-season progress.
VERDICT: One of the must-have players of 2020.
Tom Cutler $296,500 MID 2019 average: 78
The former Lion battled for opportunity last year, only playing three games as Brisbane surged into the top four. Cutler didn’t score less than 72 in that period from rounds 6-8 after averaging 81 the previous season. He’s unlikely to average enough to be a keeper but looms as a potential mid-priced cash grab. If you think Cutler can make enough to become a fallen premium in one trade, then consider him. The issue is he might have to average career-best numbers to make that happen.
VERDICT: Watch his Marsh Series form before considering.
Fremantle
Connor Blakely (DEF) $411,500 2019 avg.: 75.8
Blakely was tipped to take on a midfield role at the Dockers last year before injury delayed his season until Round 9. He never quite got going after that and only twice tallied 100+ SuperCoach points (rounds 11 and 15). It’s been two and a half years since his barnstorming run to end the 2017 home-and-away season which featured six hundreds in nine matches. Consider Blakely if Justin Longmuir uses him in a midfield role or free wheeling across halfback.
VERDICT: If the breakout hasn’t come yet, it might never.
Adam Cerra $338,900 DEF 2019 average: 62.4
The No.5 draft pick from 2017 looms as one of the best breakout picks in defence. Cerra has been training with the midfield group during summer under the watch of new Dockers coach Justin Longmuir. It’s a big leap from averaging 62.4 to more than 90, although not unprecedented. The concern is Cerra only managed 90+ once last year and will need to perform at that level consistently to justify spending $60,000 more than it costs for Tom Doedee and Dylan Roberton.
VERDICT: He’ll be a real bargain in draft but that price is a real detterant.
Andrew Brayshaw $382,800 FWD-MID 2019 average: 70.5
The signs are there to suggest a breakout season looms for the No.2 draftee. He increased his average by 10 points last year from 60.5 to 70.5 with three scores of 95 or better in his last six games including a season-best 116. Like Cerra, Brayshaw has been slated for increased midfield time which will only benefit his scoring as his game is largely based around contested possession. If you’re going to take the punt, choose him as a forward.
VERDICT: A nice POD pick instead of Devon Smith and Jack Steven up forward.
Gold Coast Suns
Ben Ainsworth (FWD-MID) $329,000 2019 avg.: 60.6
It’s few and far between at the Suns for mid-priced options, although Will Brodie ($435,800) and former No. 4 draft pick Ainsworth hold some appeal. Ainsworth has provided glimpses of his talent, scoring 93, 82 and 99 last year. Hopefully he’s built his tank enough during the summer to be in the mix for more midfield minutes.
VERDICT: Maybe next year.
Will Brodie $435,800 MID 2019 average: 80.3
Brodie’s impact in eight games last year went largely under the radar as he increased his output from 68.1 to 80.3. That number would have been much higher had the tough on-baller not tallied 19 points in Round 17 against Adelaide. He rebounded with 120 against Carlton the next week after tallying 26 disposals and 10 tackles. Brodie rated No.1 at the Suns for hard ball gets, second for tackles, third for disposals and fourth for clearances in the last six games of 2019. The price is prohibitive but he’s got breakout written all over him.
VERDICT: Where does he fit into your midfield at that price? M5 and your structure is too skinny, M6 and you’ll be sacrificing in other positions.
Geelong
Jack Steven (FWD-MID) $361,700 2019 avg.: 74
Pending fitness, Steven should be locked into SuperCoach forward lines. A player who has averaged 103 or more three times and 90+ five times can’t be ignored at that price. Steven admittedly wasn’t at his fittest last year after taking time away from the game, yet still scored 95 points in his return match against Fremantle. There’s midfield minutes on offer at Geelong after Tim Kelly’s departure and Steven is likely to fill them.
VERDICT: Tough to leave out if he’s named for Round 1.
GWS Giants
Sam Jacobs (RUC) $348,400 2019 avg.: 80.2
Few mid-priced ruckmen can reach the scoring heights or value of top picks Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn. But Jacobs is a safe pick if you want to save $300,000 and invest elsewhere. He’s averaged as high as 115.4 in 2014 and while that season was an outlier, Jacobs hasn’t dipped below 80 since 2010. Gawn’s pre-season knee injury has forced coaches to entertain other options and Jacobs represents great value compared to other mid-pricers. The veteran big man is durable, featuring in 20+ games every year from 2012-2018.
VERDICT: The top option behind Brodie Grundy if you don’t want to ‘set and forget’.
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Hawthorn
Chad Wingard (FWD-MID) $412,300 2019 avg.: 75.9
Wingard has been a premium forward in previous years, averaging 93+ in 2013 (98.6), 2015 (97.8) and 2017 (93). He posted 88.6 points a game in his last year at Port Adelaide and averaged 87 from Round 17 onwards last year. Hawthorn’s midfield will be stacked after Tom Mitchell’s return, but Wingard is an option if there’s any indication he’ll spend extra time on the ball to complement the Brownlow medallist, James Worpel and Jaeger O’Meara.
VERDICT: Promising signs in his first Marsh Series game but still too risky.
Jon Ceglar $417,000 RUC-FWD 2019 average: 76.8
Ceglar has never been much of a SuperCoach factor due to playing second fiddle to Ben McEvoy. But Alastair Clarkson wants McEvoy playing in a key-defensive post this year, which will allow Ceglar to take the No.1 ruck mantle at Hawthorn. He scored 110, 83 and 94 as the Hawks’ first-choice ruckman in his last three games last season, an average of 95.6. It’s a stretch to predict he can maintain that output for a full season but if Clarkson sticks with his plan of playing McEvoy in the backline Ceglar will have ample opportunity to do so.
VERDICT: Like it. No.1 ruckmen are traditionally strong scorers. The obvious risk is it doesn’t work out and McEvoy returns to the centre square.
Melbourne
Angus Brayshaw (MID) $452,400 2019 avg.: 83.3
Hard to see many better mid-priced options at the Demons than Brayshaw, despite a pre-season setback when he injured ligaments in his elbow. The Demons have described the injury as a “minor setback”. Most coaches will be wary after Brayshaw failed to replicate his fast finish to 2018, averaging 83.3. He still has the most upside of any mid-price Demon though.
VERDICT: Not after that pre-season setback.
North Melbourne
Majak Daw (DEF) $339,600 2019 avg.: N/A
Daw has found his niche as a key defender for the Kangaroos and impressed during pre-season after an inspiring recovery and return to the field last year. Season 2018 was the first time Daw played more than eight games in a year and his output increased from 66.1 points a game to 78.2. He averaged 12 disposals, five marks and two tackles that year but has another level to go to.
VERDICT: His return will be one of the footy stories of the year but key defenders don’t make great SuperCoach scorers.
Tarryn Thomas $339,900 FWD 2019 average: 62.6
Thomas wasn’t a big ball winner in his debut campaign, only collecting more than 15 disposals three times in 20 games. He’s got significant room for improvement as a result and has shown plenty of promise during his second pre-season at Arden Street. He’s a player worth monitoring during the pre-season series. If he’s built his tank enough to be thrown into a 50-50 split between midfield and attack, he’s worth considering. Steven and Smith are better forward options at a similar price though.
VERDICT: He’s a real talent but not at that price in SuperCoach.
Port Adelaide
Connor Rozee (FWD) $422,100 2019 avg.: 77.7
The prodigiously-talented Power young gun might be the exception to the rule about picking second-year players. Playing predominantly in the attacking 50, Rozee averaged a commendable 77.7 in his debut campaign, which included four scores of 110+. Should he progress to a forward-mid role in 2020, his talent suggests he’s capable of adding another 10 points to his average.
VERDICT: 2021 will be the year to start Rozee when he’s playing more midfield minutes than up forward.
Brad Ebert $415,200 FWD 2019 average: 76.5
After a season blighted by concussion issues, Power veteran Ebert starts the season more than $50,000 cheaper than last year and listed as a forward. He’s twice averaged 100 or more and has five seasons of 94 or higher during his career. A midfield return has been mooted for the 29-year-old, which brings him back onto the SuperCoach radar at that price. You need to be consider he can be a top-six forward though.
VERDICT: Smith and Steven should average just as much for $80,000 and $50,000 cheaper respectively.
Richmond
Tom Lynch (FWD) $388,800 2019 avg.: 71.6
The key forward came into his first season at Punt Road under an injury cloud and finished with his lowest average since 2013. The scoring highs Lynch achieved at Gold Coast are difficult to ignore considering he was playing in a weaker side. He averaged 83.2, 88.3, 93.2 and 85.1 between 2014-2017, which suggests he’s underpriced. From Round 17 onwards, he posted five tons in 10 games including a 149 in the preliminary final win over Geelong.
VERDICT: Very tempting despite the torrid scoring history of key forwards.
St Kilda Hunter Clark (DEF) $402,200 2019 avg.: 74.1
The top-10 draftee relished extra freedom at halfback after Brett Ratten took over from Alan Richardson. Clark put himself firmly on the SuperCoach pre-season watchlist with seven consecutive games of 20+ disposals and a SuperCoach high of 120 during the run home. However, he might be hard to squeeze in when there’s so much value in defence.
VERDICT: One of the best mid-pricers of the year. A genuine D3/D4 contender.
Sydney Callum Mills (DEF) $444,100 2019 avg.: 81.8
Is this the year Callum Mills finally launches into a full-time midfield role? Mills has averaged between 73.3 and 81.8 in the first four years of his career, 5-10 points off the lower range of premium status. There was an expectation last year Isaac Heeney would become a full-time midfielder, only for John Longmire to use him predominantly in attack. It’s tough to have much confidence Mills will be a regular on-baller based on that.
VERDICT: Not after John Longmire said Sydney needs his class in defence.
Oliver Florent MID $373,400 2019 average: 68.8
Another player with real breakout potential. Florent consolidated his average last year, posting 68.8 in 21 games after managing 66.2 in 2018. Warriors such as Josh Kennedy will need greater support from the emerging Swans this season and Florent is close to the front of the queue for midfield time. He averaged 25 disposals and 90 SuperCoach during the last month of 2019, a promising platform to make the leap from mid-pricer to premium scorer.
VERDICT: Extra midfield responsibility could push his average to 85-90, but is that enough for a starting pick?
Western Bulldogs Patrick Lipinski (FWD) $441,500 2019 avg.: 81.3
Lipinski took until Round 10 to work his way into the Bulldogs side but took his opportunity when it came. He increased his averages to 21.9 disposals (up from 14.7), 4.6 marks (up from 2.8) and 3.6 tackles (up from 2.4). There’s only so many points to go around in a game and he’s competing with three premium midfielders in Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli and Josh Dunkley. However, his FWD eligibility weighs in his favour.
VERDICT: He’s an exciting player but hard to pick if you have two Dogs already in midfield.
West Coast Brad Sheppard (DEF) $455,700 2019 avg.: 83.9
A largely unheralded member of the Eagles’ defence, 2019 was the first year Sheppard pushed his SuperCoach average above 80. He’s had the best two years of his career in the past two (77.1 points and 83.9). They aren’t huge numbers, but at 28 he’s a player who is still improving and starting to win the plaudits he deserves. Most of West Coast’s mid-pricers are too inconsistent for consideration, but Sheppard at least offers reliability.
VERDICT: Not when Dan Houston is less than $30,000 more and a “lock” to feature in midfield for Port Adelaide.