KFC SuperCoach: Which young guns can replicate Clayton Oliver’s 2017 emergence this year?
Sam Walsh averaged 16 points more than Clayton Oliver in his first KFC SuperCoach campaign. Is last year's Rising Star destined to repeat the Demon's second-year spike to elite status? TOP BREAKOUT CONTENDERS.
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Clayton Oliver announced himself as a KFC SuperCoach stud in spectacular fashion three years ago.
The young Demon averaged 70.6 in 13 matches in his debut campaign before emerging as a premium scorer in 2017.
Oliver opened the season with six consecutive hundreds and surged from a starting price of $382,500 to be $554,100 by Round 11.
The tough on-baller maintained the rage in the second half of the year, posting 17 tons and joining the elite bracket of midfielders by averaging 111.5.
SuperCoaches have been searching for the next Oliver since, with James Worpel going the closest when his average jumped from 72.9 to 97 last year.
The 2018 draft presented several SuperCoach gems, headlined by Sam Walsh (avg. 86.9), Bailey Smith (avg. 76.6) and Connor Rozee (avg. 77.7).
Identify which of these players will make the leap to become a premium in 2020 and you’ll save yourself more than $100,000 to bolster your starting team.
These are the leading contenders who can replicate Oliver’s breakout year and reward SuperCoaches willing to take a risk on a mid-priced youngster.
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SAM WALSH (Carlton) $471,900 MID
2019 season
Matches: 22
Average: 86.9
Season high: 141
80+ scores: 14
Averages
Disposals: 25.1
Marks: 5.1
Goals: 0.3
Tackles: 3.2
Clearances: 3.4
THE CASE FOR: Carlton’s boom youngster eclipsed the record for the most disposals recorded by a first-year player by Champion Data in 20 years with 553. He’s bulked up during his second AFL pre-season and the prospect of more contested possessions will only help his SuperCoach output. Only 37.9 per cent of Walsh’s possessions last season were contested, compared to skipper Patrick Cripps’ 46.4 per cent. Oliver scored 80+ in six of his 13 games in 2016 (46 per cent), while Walsh managed that mark in 14 of 22 (64 per cent).
THE CASE AGAINST: The only downside is Walsh’s awkward SuperCoach price. He’s $90,000 more expensive than Oliver started his second year due to an average of 86.9. You need to be confident he can lift his average to 100+ to pay more than $450,000.
VERDICT: Walsh might be the only second-year talent coaches would consider paying $450,000+ for. There’s little reason to suggest he can’t average 100+.
BAILEY SMITH (Western Bulldogs) $415,900 FWD-MID
2019 season
Matches: 23
Average: 76.6
Season high: 104
80+ scores: 11
Averages
Disposals: 17.7
Marks: 2.5
Goals: 0.5
Tackles: 4.0
Clearances: 2.5
THE CASE FOR: Smith’s debut season statistics are very similar to Oliver’s. The No. 7 draftee showed all the hallmarks of a future SuperCoach star despite playing limited midfield time behind big guns Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli and Josh Dunkley. If Smith’s time in the engine room increases, the sky is the limit. His dual-position status makes him a viable option at that price as a point of difference to popular selections Jack Steven and Devon Smith.
THE CASE AGAINST: There’s only so many SuperCoach points to go around and Smith is competing with three of the top-eight midfielders from last season in Bontempelli, Macrae and Dunkley. There’s also the prospect Pat Lipinski, who improved his average from 59.4 to 81.3, is the breakout Bulldog of 2020. Luke Beveridge has frustrated SuperCoaches in the past by using midfielders in different roles and there’s a chance Smith will be juggled due to the Dogs’ midfield depth.
VERDICT: The comparison to Oliver’s numbers is eye-catching, but that stacked midfield will likely limit his ceiling.
CONNOR ROZEE (Port Adelaide) $422,100 FWD
2019 season
Matches: 22
Average: 77.7
Season high: 119
80+ scores: 9
Averages
Disposals: 15.4
Marks: 3.5
Goals: 1.3
Tackles: 4.0
Clearances: 0.7
THE CASE FOR: Rozee averaged 77.7 points a game playing predominantly inside 50. If Ken Hinkley releases the No. 5 draft pick to play further afield and improve his average to 20+ disposals, it should result in an immediate spike to his SuperCoach average. Keep a close eye on where Rozee plays in the Marsh Community Series. Ollie Wines is injured and Sam Powell-Pepper has been slated to spend more time in attack. He looms as a real POD selection as a forward and rated elite for forward-50 pressure acts and above average for disposals, goals and score involvements with Champion Data.
THE CASE AGAINST: He’s never played as a full-time AFL midfielder. At more than $400,000, you want him firing from Round 1. If he takes time to find his feet as an on-baller, he could lose value. Picking him could mean overlooking one of the popular mid-price forwards Jack Steven and Devon Smith.
VERDICT: Firmly on the radar as a POD F3 and declaring he’s ready for more midfield minutes.
TARRYN THOMAS (North Melbourne) $339,900 FWD
2019 season
Matches: 20
Average: 62.6
Season high: 109
80+ scores: 2
Averages
Disposals: 12
Marks: 2.4
Goals: 0.8
Tackles: 3.4
Clearances: 1.1
THE CASE FOR: Thomas was ready-made from the moment he was drafted and got through 20 games in his first AFL campaign. He played his best footy mid-year, scoring his two SuperCoach tons in rounds 7 and 12. He only had 15+ disposals in four matches, which suggests he can accumulate points without amassing huge numbers. In Round 12, he scored a season-high 109 from 12 disposals and two goals. He flagged early in pre-season he was expecting to play greater time in midfield.
THE CASE AGAINST: Six scores below 50 is a worry. He’s going to need to limit his floor to 70-75 to improve his average from 62.6 to 90+. While it wouldn’t be unprecedented, that would be a big jump. He’s hoping to spend more time in midfield but will the arrival of Aidan Bonar from GWS Giants restrict his on-ball minutes?
VERDICT: He’ll need to have a huge Marsh Community Series to jump ahead of other mid-priced breakout options.
CHAYCE JONES (Adelaide) $271,500 FWD
2019 season
Matches: 8
Average: 50
Season high: 86
80+ scores: One
Averages
Disposals: 11.1
Marks: 2.0
Goals: 0.4
Tackles: 2.2
Clearances: 1.4
THE CASE FOR: The No. 9 pick from the 2018 draft is only $70,000 more than this year’s top-priced rookies despite getting eight games of AFL experience last year. He played largely as a small forward before being let off the leash in Round 23 against Western Bulldogs, when he had a season-high 18 disposals, seven marks and scored 86 SuperCoach points. New Crows coach Matthew Nicks says the 20-year-old has been destroying pre-season as he vies for a regular midfield berth. At that price, he’s worth the punt.
THE CASE AGAINST: Eight games is a small sample size. If you’re going to spend up to have Lachie Whitfield, Dustin Martin, Devon Smith and Jack Steven as your top-four forwards, are you going to have enough left over to spend $271,500 on F5?
VERDICT: Definitely an option if you’re after a bargain F4, but it’d be bold to suggest he can jump from a 50-point average to 90+.
ISAAC QUAYNOR (Collingwood) $261,700 DEF
2019 season
Matches: 4
Average: 60.2
Season high: 82
80+ scores: 1
Averages
Disposals: 14.5
Marks: 4.5
Goals: 0
Tackles: 2.5
Clearances: 0.5
THE CASE FOR: There’s plenty to like about second-year Magpie Quaynor, who’s expected to get more opportunity after James Aish (14 games in 2019) was traded to Fremantle. Slated for a SuperCoach friendly-role across halfback, Quaynor went at 68.6% kicking efficiency in four games last year.
THE CASE AGAINST: Collingwood’s depth is reasonably strong and although his job security is borderline, his prospects are improved by fellow defender Tom Langdon being eased into 2020 due to knee issues. Oliver and Worpel’s SuperCoach averages skyrocketed playing at the coalface in the centre of the ground. In four matches, 64.4 per cent of Quaynor’s disposals were uncontested. That doesn’t necessarily limit his scoring, but it’s worth keeping in mind.
VERDICT: One of the best SuperCoach options from the 2018 draft. He ticks plenty of boxes, although seems likely to average 75-80 and be a cash cow rather than a season keeper.
AND ONE FROM THE 2017 DRAFT …
ANDREW BRAYSHAW (Fremantle) $382,800 FWD-MID
2019 season
Matches: 22
Average: 70.5
Season high: 116
80+ scores: Six
Averages
Disposals: 16.9
Marks: 2.1
Goals: 0.3
Tackles: 5.1
Clearances: 2.1
THE CASE FOR: The No. 2 draft pick from two years ago, Brayshaw has 39 AFL games under his belt. He showed he’s on an upward trend by lifting his average from 60.5 in 2018 to 70.5 in 2019. His statistics last season are eerily similar to Oliver’s in 2016 before his career exploded. Brayshaw has already won over new coach Justin Longmuir and showed his scoring potential with three totals 95+ in his last six matches of 2019. David Mundy’s broken leg will likely increase his minutes in the centre square from Round 1.
THE CASE AGAINST: There’s always a level of uncertainty when a new coach takes over. Watch Fremantle closely in pre-season to determine how Longmuir uses Brayshaw. Hard to find many other issues with selecting Brayshaw, although he’ll need to improve his kicking efficiency of 44.6 per cent to take the next step and become a premium SuperCoach scorer.
VERDICT: Based on price and breakout potential, Brayshaw might be the pick of this bunch for 2020.
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