Mick McGuane delves into the key match-ups that will decide the Sydney-GWS elimination final
SYDNEY and GWS both like to play a combative, contested game and Saturday’s elimination final will be decided at the coalface. MICK McGUANE dissects the Swans’ and Giants’ tactics.
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SATURDAY’S elimination final derby between Sydney and GWS will be won in the trenches.
Collingwood premiership hero Mick McGuane takes an in-depth look at the key to the Swans and Giants winning and staying in the September hunt.
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HOW THEY PLAY
This final will be played in a strong, combative style with both teams looking to dominate contested possessions.
The other standout feature is how both these teams rely on their stoppage-game.
The Giants and Swans are ranked No.1 and No.2 in generating a percentage of their scores from stoppages but relying on that alone is not sustainable in finals football against the other six.
Both teams are structurally sound with a strong one-metre intent off the ruck contest. Players like Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Isaac Heeney versus Callan Ward, Stephen Coniglio and Jacob Hopper will look to own this go-to zone - I call it the Inner Ring - in pursuit of winning first possession.
Whichever midfield controls that might determine who wins the game. The Swans will look to create a one-on-one contest to generate a slower game, which generally leads to more stoppages.
SYDNEY
THE KEY - “INSIDE THE JUNGLE”
These two teams on average score just under six goals per game from stoppages. Considering that’s around 40 per cent of scores from this source, it is significant that the Swans get control of “the jungle”. It is going to be hard and unrelenting once the ball leaves the ruckmen’s hands. Kennedy is a marvel with his one-metre intent and Ward is no different. That match-up will be two bulls butting heads. But from a tactical advantage standpoint, Leon Cameron will look to have Dylan Shiel opposed to Kennedy in general play after the ball leaves the area. The Swans have to be mindful of Shiel accumulating on the outside.
THE THEME - “CONTROL TERRITORY”
The Swans have been incredible at absorbing opposition inside 50s all year. They concede on average 55 per game, 4th most in the competition. That’s staggering. The dam wall must eventually break. The Swans need to win the territory battle, but more importantly if they are not turning their inside 50s into shots on goal, they must get the ball to live longer in their forward 50m. They are 14th for time-in-forward-half differential. Time in forward half builds pressure and creates repeat opportunities. Absorbing GWS’s inside 50s and relying on scoring from defensive transition won’t cut it.
THE CHALLENGE - “IMPROVING TURNOVER GAME”
Every team will give up the ball either through poor decision-making or poor skill execution, pressured or otherwise. The Swans will get opportunities post-turnover, their percentage of scores from turnovers is 18th and that’s a concern for me, because playing a turnover game is sustainable, but relying on stoppages so heavily is not. The best teams get a greater balance between those two scoring sources.
GWS GIANTS
THE KEY - “SPEED OF BALL MOVEMENT”
GWS must get speed on the game. It needs to leave stoppages early once in control of the game and use its legs, which is a clear advantage against the Swans. The Giants must take risks by sharing the ball, play on at every opportunity and change the angles. They need to give the ball to Josh Kelly, Shiel, Ward and Lachie Whitfield, who accumulate high uncontested numbers and use the ball efficiently. Give it to them. I want them fast and direct (which equals territory), use the switch (get to the edges) and, as a last resort, overlap handball.
THE THEME - “DEFENSIVE TRANSITION”
GWS can ill afford to allow the Swans to control the tempo of its ball movement. If the Swans can’t go quick from their defensive 50m, they will use their offence as a form of defence to take momentum from the game. They will endeavour to ‘march it up the ground’ along the boundary and take uncontested marks until an option opens up or until they get to their launch zone (70 or 80m from goal). GWS must locate strongly and its defenders must be assertive with their field positions and own the outside to cover the Swans’ exit opportunities.
THE CHALLENGE - “LOOSE BALL/GROUND BALL CONTROL”
Rory Lobb MUST become more aggressive and stop reaching for ruck contests, which makes him look too passive. It’s time to stand up and be the No.1 ruckman his team needs him to be. If he is assertive and gets the ball on the outside against a competitive ruckman in Callum Sinclair, it will ignite the Giants’ offence and give them a chance to win loose ball gets. It’s ‘showtime’ for Lobb, and time to step up - or step out.
MAGNET BOARD
IF I WAS SYDNEY: I’d give George Hewett a commission on a variety of opponents, not just one. His application to task endears him to teammates. You can see that. He could be given the task of diluting Coniglio, Kelly or Shiel at different stages of this game. But if Kelly finds himself on the outside - perhaps on the wing - Harry Cunningham needs to shut him down there. Dan Robinson needs to play a defensive role on Whitfield. The All-Australian will sit himself off the back of stoppages, looking to receive a back-feed. The Swans must be ready to strike if that takes place.
IF I WAS GWS: Phil Davis must master eight-time All-Australian Buddy Franklin. It is imperative he owns the back space which will encourage Buddy to venture higher up the ground to be a target option for the Swans’ ball carrier. I’d prefer that if I was Leon Cameron. Keeping Buddy to three goals or under would be a massive win.
PREDICTION: GWS Giants by 10
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