Mick McGuane analyses the tactics that will decide Demons-Cats elimination final

GEELONG knows Melbourne plays its best football when it’s moving the ball forward with speed. Can the Cats negate them? Collingwood legend Mick McGuane examines the key strategies that will determine tonight’s elimination final.

Will Dee speedsters like James Harmes bust the Cats open? Picture: AAP

MELBOURNE likes to move the ball quickly, and it’s crucial that Geelongs wins the inside-50 count.

COLLINGWOOD premiership hero MICK McGUANE examines the key strategies for Friday night’s elimination final between Melbourne and Geelong to determine where the match will be won and lost.

THE TACKLE: SEPTEMBER’S BIG GAME HUNTERS

FINALS: BURNING QUESTIONS FOR EVERY CLUB

INNER SANCTUM: SECRET CREED BEHIND DEES’ RESURGENCE

HOW THEY PLAY

Melbourne is a territory team, where it is all about holding a strong field position. They achieve this with their kicking game. The Demons kick longer than any other team, making them No.1 for metres gained from kicks.

Geelong holds similar traits with a few subtle differences. Due to their density around the ball, the Cats seek to chain out of congestion using handballs to put a kicker out into space. They have the sixth lowest handball-to-kick ratio in the AFL, but do that in a forward manner to gain metres.

Both sides attack the corridor coming out of defensive 50. The difference relates to the execution — the Demons go hard and fast; the Cats with composure and control.

MELBOURNE

THE KEY

Simon Goodwin wants a fast, up-tempo game. I love how they want to “turn and go” after marking. That generates run from behind and importantly changes the angles for off-line ball movement. They are not afraid to share the ball by handball to bring a teammate into the game. This fast-ball movement will challenge the Cats defensively. It won’t allow Lachie Henderson, Harry Taylor (if he plays back) and Tom Stewart to get set.

THE THEME

Crucial to Melbourne’s success is that players in front of the ball users get to the edges and play an expansive game. Geelong will be looking for corridor coverage, but if the Demons make the ground big, it will stretch their press and test their nerve. It’s important for connection that forwards such as Tom McDonald, Jake Melksham, Christian Petracca and Alex Neal-Bullen look to reset and have good structure in front of the ball as they will get good opportunities.

Tom McDonald has had an excellent season. Picture: Getty Images

THE CHALLENGE

As the Demons have shown already this year, a team can reach all internal measurements, yet lose out when it comes to goalkicking accuracy. In their two games against Geelong this year, Melbourne has kicked 27.30 to the Cats’ 30.17, and lost both games. The number of scoring shots is a positive, but ultimately proved costly. An elimination final takes no prisoners. No laconic snaps (an escape route in disguise) when a more courageous set shot with a drop punt would be preferable.

GEELONG

THE KEY

Take away Melbourne’s territory game, and the Demons are vulnerable. The Cats have won 10 of 12 matches when winning or equalling the inside-50 count, but have won just three of 10 when losing that measurement. Ironically, they lost the count in those two games to Melbourne this year — by 24 in Round 1, and 14 in Round 18 — but won by three and two points respectively.

The Cats need to be at their miserly best. They must come forward to defend. High pressure is a must. Corridor coverage and taking time and space from the likes of Christian Salem, Jordan Lewis and Neville Jetta is crucial. My mantra: force them backwards, hunt the switch, no corralling and get in their faces. Take away a strength of theirs.

THE THEME

The biggest battles are won by your best competitors. Winning the midfield will help win this war. The onus of responsibility lies on the shoulders of Dangerfield, the two Selwoods, Ablett, Duncan, Kelly and Menegola. There’s no point sugar-coating it — It starts and stops with them. I’m not just talking about possessions. It’s more about their actions in and around the contest, and their will to hunt the Melbourne ball carriers. Defend first.

Joel Selwood loves the big occasion. Picture: AAP

THE CHALLENGE

I’ve always admired the pure nature of the Cats’ offence. Good decisions are matched by good execution. That’s why they have the capacity to score quickly. I’d love to see the Cats increase their play-on from marks. It’s about getting their own field position by adopting fast ball movement out of defensive 50. Playing safe and composed footy won’t get the job done.

MAGNET BOARD

IF I WAS MELBOURNE

James Harmes is tough, diligent, selfless and above all a team-first player. He MUST play on Joel Selwood. The Cats’ skipper relishes the big occasion and his influence around stoppage and loose-ball hunt must be diminished. At midfield stoppages when in the corridor between the arcs, Melbourne must not allow Patrick Dangerfield to burst out the front of stoppages, so the Demons’ wingers need to play a significant role here. Using the clock face, their 10-to-2 positioning sitting goal-side, 5m to 8m off the stoppage is a must. Don’t leave the gate open for him — be a barbed-wire fence!

James Harmes is a team-first player. Picture: AAP

IF I WAS GEELONG

The dual threat of Tom McDonald and Jake Melksham needs to be negated. They are super important to the Demons’ forward 50 structure. Both provide strong movement, can strike or slide to be an option and they compete strongly at ground level or overhead. First-time All-Australian Tom Stewart — who doesn’t lose one on ones — is a very good defender who backs himself, so he is my man to take Melksham. Mark Blicavs is my weapon to take down McDonald. Sit back and enjoy two of our game’s most gifted endurance athletes go head to head. This will allow Henderson to abandon an irrelevant Melbourne forward, and roll off to support Blicavs when required.

PREDICTION

Melbourne by 18 points