Mick McGuane analyses the tactics that will decide Tigers-Hawks qualifying final

RICHMOND has been rolling the dice in the past six weeks. But do the Tigers have too much trust in their teammates? We’ll find out tonight, writes MICK McGUANE.

STOPPING Dustin Martin won’t be easy but he can’t be let off the leash.

COLLINGWOOD premiership hero MICK McGUANE dissects Thursday night’s qualifying final between Richmond and Hawthorn and pinpoints where the match will be won and lost.

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HOW THEY PLAY

Each team thrives on a forward-half game, with Richmond ranked second and Hawthorn third for time spent in the forward half of the ground.

Both aim to deny the opposition ball movement out of their defensive 50 by rolling up the ground, coming in behind their attack and setting up a tight 18-man defensive structure covering all exits.

When employed successfully, it builds pressure and forces turnovers, which creates scoring opportunities.

The Tigers are the best in the AFL at creating turnovers in their forward 50; the Hawks are third.

RICHMOND

THE KEY

We know the Tigers love to play a chaos-type game — a high-pressure contest. Long kicks come out of the back half and teammates in front of the ball are aware of this.

The reason they get away with it is the group has great synergy and is well connected. It’s the opposite at the other end as they rely on short kicks inside forward 50. Their forwards use and work the space available, making them dangerous and usable options.

THE THEME

It’s all about the GBH — the ground-ball hunt. I’ve always rated this facet of the game highly. It’s a measure of a team that is proactive rather than reactive.

The Tigers get the inside/outside balance of the contest right on most occasions. It also identifies those players who are on their toes as opposed to being on their heels. That requires will, intent and effort, and most importantly wanting the footy in your hands.

Dustin Martin is given too much time and space from opposition teams. Picture: Michael Klein

THE CHALLENGE

Cheating or self-preservation mode? We’ll soon find out. I’ve watched the Tigers closely in the past six weeks and they appear to be rolling the dice.

It’s either cheating (running forward of the ball) or it’s a self-preservation mindset. It’s almost like they have so much faith in each other, even when they are outnumbered, they are going to win the ball.

They take risks and look to get behind the opposition’s defence. It’s a dangerous habit to form in the subconscious when the stakes are at their highest. I’m sure Dimma is all over it, or it is by design?

HAWTHORN

THE KEY

Changing lanes is paramount. They cannot play the game in straight lines. That shifts Richmond’s defence and creates opportunities for “Pop Space” (space for teammates to run on to a little pop-up kick) to channel the ball through. It encourages run from behind the ball so the Hawks can go at speed.

To create “Pop Space” in the corridor, those teammates in front of the ball on the flanks must look to get chalk on their feet and make the ground big. Selfless running will challenge the Tiger defenders who like to own the outside.

THE THEME

The Hawks’ ball movement direction is through the corridor and over. A slow, then fast build-up will complement back-space leading using Luke Breust, Paul Puopolo and Jack Gunston, who read the cues, knowing when to lengthen the ground and stretch Richmond’s press.

The Tigers can limit Tom Mitchell’s influence with a tag. Picture: Phil Hillyard

THE CHALLENGE

I’d implore the Hawks to attack the corridor at every opportunity out of defensive 50. They MUST back their decisions and kicking skills. Yes, it’s high risk, but it could yield a high reward.

Dare and bravery, and having faith in your feet keeps a defensive structure honest.

Geelong dared to go through the corridor of out defensive 50 against Richmond in Round 20. That mode almost proved successful, of which Clarko would be well aware.

Turnovers will occur but great teams and individuals maintain their nerve when it matters.

MAGNET BOARD

IF I WAS RICHMOND

It’s all about taking care of inside and outside the contest. Tom Mitchell has required attention all season, even if not every club has given it to him. His impact can be diluted with a tag. George Hewitt showed us how in the last round.

Jack Graham or Trent Cotchin would love the challenge around stoppage to nullify Mitchell’s influence on winning first possession. Graham can be accountable for him in general play.

Isaac Smith is the other Hawks player I’d be putting time into. He is an outside running machine. Kamdyn McIntosh is my go-to man to keep Smith in check.

Shane Edwards provides the Tigers with an extra number around the ball. Picture: AAP

IF I WAS HAWTHORN

There is no way I would allow Dustin Martin to roam free between the arcs. He gathers 35 per cent of his disposals between the defensive 50 arc and the centre circle and a more damaging 64 per cent when centre-forward. Incredibly, he has only had five disposals in defensive 50 for the year.

Please, Clarko, bring some sanity back to the game and get someone to challenge Dusty physically and mentally. Deny him time and space. Frustrate him and live in his shadow.

The Tigers like to play with five forwards rolling up — especially Kane Lambert or Shane Edwards — to give them an extra number around the ball. This provides Martin with a creative licence to float forward when he can. He’s a beast at centre-bounce clearances, so get Liam Shields to take the role between the arcs and hand over to Ben Stratton when Martin goes forward. If selected, Daniel Howe could be a Plan B.

PREDICTION

Richmond by 15 points

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