Mick McGuane analyses the tactics that will decide Eagles-Magpies qualifying final
COLLINGWOOD’S makeshift defence is the easiest in the AFL to outmark. And they don’t want to kick it high anywhere near Jeremy McGovern at the other end either. MICK McGUANE on the key finals tactics.
Collingwood
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COLLINGWOOD will win a mountain of the footy. West Coast’s power is in the air — at both ends of the ground.
Magpies premiership hero Mick McGuane puts two teams with contrasting styles under the microscope to determine where Saturday night’s qualifying final will be won and lost.
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HOW THEY PLAY
This final represents the biggest contrast in game styles of the four games this weekend.
West Coast likes to control the game through a kick-mark approach, not through a high volume of possessions. The Eagles rank 16th for disposals. The Magpies are No.1.
West Coast relies heavily on being difficult to score against when the opposition enters its forward 50. Jeremy McGovern’s reading of the cues as to where the opposition is kicking the ball is a major reason why the Eagles are ranked fourth for conceding a score from an opposition entry. He rarely gets outmarked. The unheralded Tom Barrass is the other player who intercepts opposition kicks. Both limit the opposition from winning possession close to goal.
The Magpies have a strong balance between contested and uncontested possessions. Nathan Buckley’s side is a high-pressure team that creates plenty of scoring opportunities through weight of disposals. They go through the corridor the least of any team and prefer to channel their ball movement through the wider corridor or wings, not specifically the boundary.
WEST COAST
THE KEY
The Eagles must win the loose ball. If they don’t, their premiership aspirations are gone.
They can’t rely on players at either end of the ground to get the job done. In finals there is a significant increase in ground balls, so it’s time to get to work. With their best ground-ball midfielder, Andrew Gaff, out for the season, it’s time for others to stand and deliver. Effort is only effort when it begins to hurt.
Elliot Yeo, Jack Redden, Chris Masten and Dom Sheed can go to another level and, as much as I admire Luke Shuey, he is well below the standard I expect from him when it comes to gathering the loose ball. He needs to be their initiator, not just a finisher.
THE THEME
Since Lynden Dunn’s ACL injury in Round 15, the Magpies have been the second easiest team to beat in one-on-one contests in their defensive 50 — and the easiest team to outmark.
Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling pose a significant threat as a marking combination against Collingwood’s inexperienced, makeshift defence. Fastball movement into isolated one-on-one match-ups is a priority. If it’s coming in quick, good luck against an isolated Liam Ryan.
THE CHALLENGE
Collingwood will win plenty of the ball, so the Eagles’ pressure must be high.
The decisions they make within a 5-15m circumference when chasing and tackling are super important to get right. Why? Let’s break it down into three phases and call it Defence 1 (power at the ball carrier), Defence 2 (shutting down the Pies’ next option), and Defence 3 (60m behind the ball). Great defensive teams rely on players making the right decisions in all three phases.
It’s about trust, effort, concentration and intent. For D2 to work, D1 must be manic and force a hurried decision. For D3 to have an impact, D1 and D2 must be on the same page, giving the opposition no short options so a dump or panic kick is released to an outnumber. Collingwood will flick the ball around, so how the Eagles defend could determine the result.
COLLINGWOOD
THE KEY
If players go to a contest, they must influence it by winning or neutralising it. If the Eagles win too many contests it will allow them to get their kick-mark game going.
When the Eagles have taken 90 or more marks in a game this season they haven’t lost. They have fallen short of that magical figure in eight matches, and lost six of them. Collingwood players must locate their opponents better than they did against Fremantle in Round 23, when they allowed the Dockers to take 105 marks. Tellingly, 91 were uncontested.
THE THEME
Nathan Buckley has created a diverse forward line, almost out of necessity. Brody Mihocek has been a revelation; Mason Cox has improved greatly; Jordan De Goey is a matchwinner. Jaidyn Stephenson spooks defenders; Josh Thomas hits the scoreboard; Travis Varcoe is applying great pressure and Will Hoskin-Elliott can be isolated for a different look.
This mobile attack will ensure the Pies enter their forward 50 at speed, and will look to keep the ball low to advantage their teammates. High balls must be a last resort. McGovern, Barrass, Shannon Hurn and Brad Sheppard have to be kept on the move. It’s imperative the Collingwood forwards stay in the game, and don’t become irrelevant, as McGovern will go to where the footy will land and win it back.
THE CHALLENGE
Collingwood’s half-forwards, onballers and wingers will have to push back hard to dry up leading lanes or help out in the air, creating two-on-ones to kill the ball from any marking situation. This is a real threat to Collingwood within the game.
The Eagles took 14 inside-50 marks in their Round 17 clash at the MCG, the most Collingwood has conceded all year. If a similar return occurs, it will be a long flight home.
MAGNET BOARD.
IF I WAS WEST COAST …
I’d send Mark Hutchings to All-Australian wingman Steele Sidebottom. He has to hunt one of the Pies’ best accumulators and ball-users. Hutchings was very disciplined in this role in Round 17, playing on Sidebottom for 68 minutes and keeping him to 12 disposals.
IF I WAS COLLINGWOOD …
I would take on the Eagles through the midfield, even more so if Adam Treloar returns to the team. Luke Shuey is the one I’d be inclined to shadow if he gets off the chain. He is the Eagles’ midfield barometer. Levi Greenwood is the man. He has a fierce will to win, very good endurance and concentrates.
PREDICTION
Collingwood by 7 points
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