Victoria Votes: Daniel Andrews celebrates emphatic election win
Daniel Andrews has declared “we will govern for all Victorians” as Labor was returned to power, while the Liberal Party faces a “change or die” moment.
Victoria
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Daniel Andrews has won a historic third term, putting him on track to become Victoria’s second longest-serving Premier.
Mr Andrews on Saturday night promised to govern for all Victorians, as Labor looked to form a clear majority government, with MPs and party figures hailing the result as better than expected.
“Leadership isn’t about doing what’s popular, leadership is about doing what’s right,” Mr Andrews said shortly after 11pm.
“Leadership is about doing what matters. And that’s exactly what the people of this great state have endorsed today, in resoundingly re-endorsing our strong, stable, majority Labor government.
“These last few years have been incredibly challenging. Hope always defeats hate.
“We will govern for all Victorians. We will deliver each and every element of our positive plan to benefit each and every Victorian, no matter how you voted, no matter your views and opinions.
“That’s what our job is, we take our responsibility very seriously.”
After thanking his staff, campaign officials and volunteers, Mr Andrews thanked his wife and children for their enduring support.
“At a very personal level, I want to thank the strongest person that I know, my wife and my best friend Catherine,” he said.
“Together, both of us want to thank the three most important people to us, the future, three people we’re very proud of, Noah, Grace and Joseph.”
The victory came despite a significant statewide swing against the party, particularly in Melbourne’s west.
But in a disaster for the Liberal Party its vote also went backwards from a poor 2018 result, with few seats gained in the east and southeast of Melbourne where it had been confident of polling well.
Addressing the Liberal Party faithful Opposition Leader Matt Guy said he was immensely proud of the Coalition’s campaign effort.
“On behalf of all Victorians, I think it is important now that post this election, that we come together as Victorians knowing that the best of our state should be ahead of us, not behind us,” he said. “Every election concludes itself, but there’s another one to fight for. We’ve got a lot of work to do, we know that, but we also know our time in the sun will come again.”
It is the second crushing defeat for Mr Guy, who Liberals were saying last night could not stay on as party leader.
Results across the state varied starkly, with the Greens and teals looking likely to pick up inner city seats, but the Nationals taking seats off independents in the bush.
The victory will mean Labor will bring back the taxpayer-owned State Electricity Commission, start building the $34.5bn first stage of the Suburban Rail Loop, and usher in reforms for more free kindergarten and TAFE.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was among the first to congratulate Mr Andrews on the win.
Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan said Labor’s policies had focused on creating jobs and had a significant effect.
Former Liberal member for Kew, Tim Smith, told Sky News his party was in crisis.
“There is something clearly wrong with the state parliamentary Liberal Party,” he said.
Mr Andrews saw off a personal challenge in his seat of Mulgrave from independent businessman Ian Cook, and the Premier is on track for a slight swing towards him.
Labor did suffer a backlash in the western suburbs, where pollsters had expected anger over the government’s pandemic handling.
However, strong existing margins in key seats provided huge buffers against independent candidates.
The Greens were on track to win Richmond and Northcote from the ALP, adding to their three existing seats of Brunswick, Melbourne and Prahran.
Albert Park, which was held by retiring former health minister Martin Foley, was also under threat from the Greens, with a huge swing against the ALP.
Former premier Steve Bracks said the result exceeded his expectations.
Former tennis ace Sam Groth won the former Liberal stronghold of Nepean from Labor’s Chris Brayne, who won the seat in a shock result in 2018. In Hawthorn, former Liberal MP John Pesutto – touted by some as a potential party leader – looked unlikely to win the seat back after losing it at the last election to Labor. Teal independent Melissa Lowe had an early lead with a third of the vote counted last night.
The Liberals appeared to have seen off challenges from the teals in Kew, Sandringham and Brighton while party figures were holding out hope that they would pick up votes once pre-polling votes were counted.
11.08pm: Daniel Andrews cited former Prime Minister Paul Keating in his victory speech, telling the crowd he chose to govern by advice offered to him by the Labor icon.
“Paul Keating once said to me, ‘son, leadership isn’t about doing what’s popular. Leadership is about doing what’s right’,” he said.
“Essentially he was telling me that leadership is about doing what matters.
“And that is exactly what the people of this great state have endorsed today in resoundingly re-electing our strong, stable majority Labor government.”
Mr Andrews said Victorians’ “sense of connection” was behind his party’s re-election, while defending his government’s response to the Covid pandemic.
“That sense of kindness … that sense that we’re all in this together has been confirmed today,” he said.
“These last few years have been incredibly challenging, we have had to make some very difficult decisions, some very tough decisions, and Victorians right across our state have had a very difficult time.
“This was a one-in-100 year event and because of the tough decisions that we made, and in some respects even more importantly, the fact that Victorians stuck together, the fact that Victorians, through kindness and compassion and care, looked out for each other, went and got vaccinated – because vaccines work.”
10.49pm: Matthew Guy has called Daniel Andrews to concede defeat and offer the Premier congratulations.
He also praised the swing of about 4 per cent towards the Liberal Party, with swings of about 15-20 per cent in Melbourne’s northern and western suburbs.
“That is a message that, in this term, I hope that the Labor Party who will form government will heed that message and will have a change in style, a change in attitude, an approach focused on uniting Victorians, not just dividing them,” he said.
“I hope and trust the next term of office for the government will be a different one, because Victorians need to hear that.
“(The Liberals) have a lot of work to do, we know that. But we also know that our time in the sun will come again.”
10.48pm: LiberalcandidateJess Wilson has fought off the Teal wave in Kew.
Ms Wilson replaces Tim Smith, who departed state politics after drunkenly crashing his car through a fence.
There had been questions about whether the Teals could claim the seat, but Ms Wilson declared to her election room after 10pm, “we kept Kew blue tonight”.
Ms Wilson’s win came despite the electorate of Kew sitting in the part of the federal Kooyong, where Dr Monique Ryan displaced former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.
“It’s been a disappointing night for the Liberal Party more broadly and we need to make sure in the weeks and months ahead we reflect on that,” Ms Wilson said.
10.47pm: Ian Cook announced late on Saturday night he would contest the vote count at every polling booth in Mulgrave.
Mr Cook was trailing Daniel Andrews on Saturday evening, but remained confident he could win on preferences.
According to scrutineers at one polling booth, 30 per cent of Labor voters gave their first preference to Mr Cook and their second to Mr Andrews.
“We’re challenging every booth and saying the way they did the count is wrong,” Mr Cook said.
“We’ve even had Labor scrutineers agree with our scrutineers. We believe there will have to be a recount on Monday.”
Mr Andrews leads Mr Cook 53.2 per cent to 18.1 per cent, but suffered a 6.3 per cent swing away from Labor.
Mr Cook beat out Liberal candidate Michael Piastrino, who secured 16.5 per cent of primary votes.
10.30pm: Teal independent Melissa Lowe is leading Liberal candidate John Pesutto in the battle for Hawthorn, however there is still a lot to play out for the tightly-contested seat.
Mr Pesutto suffered a shock defeat in 2018 when he was beaten by Labor candidate John Kennedy, who was in his retirement village at the time of the victory.
Both major party candidates could be beaten by Ms Lowe, who would become the first woman to hold the seat of Hawthorn in its history if she wins the seat.
Mr Kennedy expected the Green’s preferences to boost Ms Lowe but said it was too close to call.
Mr Kennedy said praised Labor’s return to power.
“The result tonight is an endorsement of this government and its incredible record of delivering for Victorians,” he said.
10.12pm: Labor’s victory draws some parallels to the infamous 2018 ‘Danslide’, with the party snatching victory from the Liberals in Hastings, Glen Waverley and Ripon.
The party also managed to win back Bayswater – held by Jackson Taylor – after it was redistributed back to the Liberals this election.
But first termer Chris Brayne lost his seat of Nepean to tennis star turned Liberal MP, Sam Groth, while in Bass, Jordan Crugnale also appears to be on the way out.
Northcote MP Kat Theophanous also failed to secure a second term, with her seat falling to the Greens.
10.05pm: Just hours after the polls closed, the Liberal blame game had already begun.
“Clearly our polling was shit,” was the blunt comment of a senior Liberal as the night wore on.
Donation reform laws were also blamed, while Liberal candidate for Ashwood Asher Judah said the party had a “branding” problem.
“It seems to me there is a significant hangover from the federal election and the repudiation of the federal Liberal party in this result,” Mr Judah said.
“The Liberal Party brand in Victoria has not recovered and serious questions need to be asked as to why this was not detected and dealt with over the last six months.
“I am of the view that the Liberal Party is at a ‘change or die’ moment in Victoria and if it does not change it will never achieve majority government.
“I think everything should be up for discussion because our brand is the problem – what people perceive our party to be, whether it’s accurate or not, is the problem and not enough work has been put into repairing it and making it clear what we are about.
“There are 1000 things to fix and 1000 things that need to be done but I think ultimately it’s a ‘change or die’ moment and the first opportunity to recognise that was after the federal defeat – it hasn’t been addressed and the consequences are there for everyone to see tonight.”
When asked if there should be a change of leadership in the party, Mr Judah said: “I don’t think it matters. I think it’s a brand issue and it’s up to the parliamentary party to deal with it.”
But opposition health spokeswoman Georgie Crozier saiddenied that the federal result had an effect on the Liberal loss.
“I don’t think that you can say this result has anything to do with the federal government,” Ms Crozier said.
“Victorians know the difference between federal government and state government.”
10.02pm: Box Hill Liberal candidate Nicole Ta-Ei Werner said she was “a bit astonished” at the result in her seat on Saturday night.
Incumbent Box Hill Labor MP Paul Hamer leads the two-candidate preferred vote, securing 58.04 per cent of the vote, compared to Ms Ta-Ei Werner’s 41.96 per cent.
Mr Hamer is likely to be elected for a second term, but Ms Ta-Ei Werner hasn’t conceded defeat yet.
“We don’t know the outcome yet, so I’m still hopeful, but it is disappointing, it’s not the way we thought it would go,” she said.
“I’m remaining optimistic for the pre-poll and postal votes, and hoping that it does come back our way but we’ll see.
“The mood of the voters was so positive, I’m almost astonished at the result we’ve seen tonight, because of how many people I spoke to who were voting for us and said they were sick and tired of the government that they were under, sick and tired of the corruption, and Daniel Andrews, so I’m a bit confused.
“The pre-poll mood and sentiment was really positive, obviously it’s not reflected in the results tonight but I’m still hoping.”
Ms Ta-Ei Werner said she was also surprised at the overall election result, and Labor being re-elected.
“Again I find that confusing but they say the only poll that counts is on election day,” she said.
“It’s definitely not the way I thought it would go, but obviously there’s a bit for us to do as a party.”
9.50pm: Labor diehard Tony Blake said a third term for the party wasn’t at all surprising.
Mr Blake, a 65-year-old Springvale-based traffic controller, has been volunteering for Daniel Andrews for eight years.
He said the Premier was able to secure a third term because the Liberal Party “had nothing to offer the Victorian people”.
“Dan the man has offered us jobs, he’s offered us TAFE, there’s just an endless list of achievements,” he said.
“He gets sh-t done.
“Thank you very much Daniel Andrews – the very best Premier in my living memory.”
9pm: Daniel Andrews is in the box seat to hold his Mulgrave electorate, despite just 7.5 per cent of the vote having been counted.
While it was too early for experts to officially call the seat, Mr Andrews had secured 1718 first preference votes, well ahead of independent challenger Ian Cook on 611.
Mr Cook was attempting to unseat the Premier, running a campaign that attempted to highlight corruption, after his catering business iCook Foods was shut down by the Dandenong council.
Liberal candidate Michael Piastrino, who was forced to apologise to Mr Andrews after calling for him to be jailed, had just 552 first preference votes.
8.56pm: AnthonyAlbanese has congratulated Daniel Andrews and his team on their re-election, saying he looks forward to working with them to deliver for Victorians.
The Prime Minister said the Andrews government had supported Victorians through the “toughest of times” over the past eight years.
“Congratulations to my good friend Premier Daniel Andrews and the whole Labor team on their re-election,” Mr Albanese said.
Congratulations @DanielAndrewsMP, what a great win. pic.twitter.com/nkrolgqPXD
— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) November 26, 2022
“From the pandemic and the Black Summer bushfires to the floods still inflicting their devastating toll on communities, Dan Andrews and the Labor government have been there.
“They have a comprehensive plan to grow the economy, create jobs, build infrastructure and revitalise a health system that has carried the state through a once-in-a-century pandemic.
“I look forward to continuing to work with Dan and his team every day to deliver for Victorians.”
8.33pm: A lively crowd of about 100 people at Daniel Andrews’ Mulgrave function descended into huge cheers after political analysts declared a Labor victory.
The sea of red erupted into an applause and were seen hugging one another.
Mr Andrews isn’t expected to address the party faithful until Matthew Guy concedes.
Cheers erupt at Labor HQ in Mulgrave as ABC predicts no path for the Liberals to win.
Cheers here from the Labor faithful at Daniel Andrews party HQ as ABC projects a Labor win #springst#vicvotespic.twitter.com/WuMdCHNd4Q
— Mitch Clarke (@96mitchclarke) November 26, 2022
8.28pm: Defeat is sinking in at the Liberals’ election party in Doncaster, with members and volunteers resigning to the bar after earlier hopes of taking out an unlikely win dwindled.
As the count rolled into its third hour and a Labor win looked to be inevitable, some attendees told the Herald Sun they were still “extremely confident” that the Liberals could pick up seats, while others admitted they had given up hope.
Despite many media outlets calling it for Daniel Andrews, Nationals Party leader Peter Walsh said it was too early to be making those decisions.
“It’s quarter past eight, give us a break,” he said.
“Let’s just have a cold shower and wait an hour, an hour and a half.”
But less than an hour later, with broadcasters announcing a Labor win, the crowd of blue sat subdued and waiting for Matthew Guy to arrive.
The opposition leader, who has not yet arrived at the venue, is not expected to address the sombre crowd until further pre-poll votes have been counted.
Defeat is sinking in at @LiberalVictoria HQ, with members and volunteers resigning to the bar after earlier hopes the Libs might take out an unlikely win. #VicVotes2022@theheraldsunpic.twitter.com/o7SLu7GbMY
— Carly Douglas (@Carly__Douglas) November 26, 2022
8.22pm: Labor is increasingly confident of being returned to power, with Sky News projecting a third term of the Andrews Government.
It is unclear what type of government would be formed but early results show a difficult night for the Coalition and no clear path to victory.
8.16pm: There are promising signs for Labor in Box Hill, with incumbent MP Paul Hamer out to an early lead.
Mr Hamer has secured 57.53 per cent of the two candidate preferred vote, compared to Liberal candidate Nicole Ta-Ei Werner with 42.47 per cent, as of 8pm Saturday.
Ms Werner’s supporters have gathered at a function in Box Hill to listen to the results, but Ms Ta-Ei is yet to address the room.
In Ashwood incumbent Labor MP Matt Fregon is leading Liberal candidate Asher Judah.
Mr Fregon has secured 53.19 per cent of the two candidate preferred vote, compared to Mr Judah with 46.81 per cent.
Mr Fregon, speaking at the Ashwood High School voting booth on Saturday, said he was feeling optimistic and had been talking to voters about Labor’s positive agenda.
Mr Judah said there was a mood for change among voters and a lot of hostility towards Daniel Andrews.
8.06pm: Cheers have erupted inside the Premier’s campaign party, with attendees feeling confident that Mr Andrews will hold his seat.
A huge round of applause was heard when early polling results for the Mulgrave electorate were displayed on the big screen.
Matthew Guy is also sitting comfortably in front in the battle for his seat of Bulleen.
As of 8pm he was sitting on 47.4 per cent of the vote, with Labor candidate Ian Rodgers trailing on 31.6 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Greens are confident their “grassroots” campaigning in the Richmond electorate will help them secure the seat, after they knocked on the doors of 50,000 voters.
As of 8pm Saturday Greens candidate Gabrielle De Vietri, had a small lead over Labor’s Lauren O’Dwyer, sitting on 34.7 per cent of the vote ahead of Ms O’Dwyer’s 31.3 per cent.
7.55pm:Ian Cookhas been met with a throng of faithful supporters and thunderous applause at his election headquarters in Mulgrave.
The independent candidate hoping to knock out the Premier told supporters that, win or lose, his campaign was about highlighting corruption and changing Victoria’s future for the better.
“We started this to expose corruption,” Mr Cook said.
“We started this to try wake up people in Victoria and we have done that.
“Win, lose or draw tonight, we are successful and you should all be so proud.”
After addressing the crowd, Mr Cook embraced supporters clad in “vote one Ian Cook” t-shirts, many of whom were visibly emotional.
“None of this would have happened without all of you,” he said.
Ian Cook - the independent trying to topple Daniel Andrews in the seat of Mulgrave - has been met with thunderous applause at his election party. @theheraldsunpic.twitter.com/XguiJOrxcp
— Alexandra Middleton (@alexandraamidd) November 26, 2022
7.36pm: Redbridge director Kos Samaras told the ABC that swings across Melbourne were very similar to those seen during the federal election.
He said this meant voters in the outer suburbs were turning off Labor but those votes were going to minor parties and independents rather than the Liberals.
Mr Samaras said the state’s sandbelt suburbs, along the Frankston railway line, appeared to be bucking the trend and backing the ALP.
“There are swings to Labor in what I would call the class of 2014,” he said.
“These seats have changed over the last 20 years but particularly over the last 10 years.
“Lots of young professionals have moved into these electorates.
“Unless the Liberal party can take these seats off Labor I can’t see how they can get to government.”
7.18pm: The 100 or so volunteers and rank and file members expected to turn up to support Matthew Guy were slow to trickle through the doors at the Doncaster Bowling Club as the vote count kicked off.
The Liberals are quietly confident they will be able to add to their 27 seats, with the opposition leader having gained on Daniel Andrews throughout election week.
Liberal MP for the Eastern Metropolitan Region Matt Bach was one of the first to arrive at the bowls club after a day spent at polling booths across his electorate, including in the marginal seat of Box Hill and the Labor held seat of Ivanhoe.
The senior Liberal singled Box Hill as a seat as his top hope.
“I think we will win Box Hill. We’ve got a great candidate, Nicole Werner. We need more young women,” he told the Herald Sun.
Despite earlier nerves from the Liberals about losing the blue riband seat of Kew and taking back the once true blue seat of Hawthorn, Mr Bach said he was confident the party would be able to fend off Labor and the teals.
As for the rest of the state, the upper house MP said he was expecting surprises.
“I think we’re going to see patchy results. I think there will be surprises across the board,” he said.
With solid turn outs in the southeast, the Liberals are feeling confident they will be able to retain Brighton and Sandringham, and are hopeful of securing deputy Liberal leader David Southwick’s seat of Caulfield.
Mr Guy is not expected to arrive until later tonight.
17.14pm: Daniel Andrews’ campaign headquarters is slowly beginning to fill, but the Premier isn’t expected to show his face for a few hours yet.
The Labor Party faithful – including campaign volunteers, media advisers and supporters – will descend on a top secret location in Mulgrave, where Mr Andrews will address the crowd later tonight.
It remains unknown if any members of Mr Andrews’ cabinet will join the sea of red shirts.
Mr Andrews made no public appearances in his home electorate on Saturday, deciding only to make a brief appearance at a level crossing project in Glen Huntly.
6pm: Voting has now closed and counting has begun across the state as Victoria waits to learn who will form the next government.
Preliminary results are expected to start coming through as early as 6.30pm, but any real read on the final result is not expected until much later in the night.
Premier Daniel Andrews is hoping to become the first third term Premier since the ALP’s Steve Bracks won a third term in 2006.
But Labor is bracing to lose up to 10 seats and potentially be pushed into minority government.
Opposition leader Matthew Guy is holding out hope he can win enough seats to propel him into office.
Sources in polling booths across the state said the ALP appeared to be struggling in the west, north and south-east of Melbourne.
The Liberal Party was nervous about winning the blue ribbon seats of Kew and Hawthorn.
“It’s been hard to get a read on things today, but there is definitely an anti-Dan sentiment,” one senior Liberal said.
“What’s astounding is the number of people who have turned up who are still undecided.”
More than 2 million Victorians cast their votes before Saturday, with the Victorian Electoral Commission hopeful of counting as many of those votes as possible on Saturday evening.
VEC director of communication and engagement, Sue Lang, said early votes would be counted at 155 centres across the state.
“The challenge will be counting almost 1.9m across those centres while the votes we take today will be counted across 1,700 sites,” Ms Lang said.
“We will be doing our very best but given the numbers of early votes this may be difficult.
“We are aiming to count 75 per cent of what we hold this weekend. If it’s close there will be more scrutineer challenges which also slows things down further.”
Mr Andrews kept a low profile on Saturday, making his final pitch on breakfast TV before donning a hard hat for a brief appearance at a Glen Huntly level crossing with son Joseph.
He also shunned his own electorate of Mulgrave and again ruled out working with the Greens or Independents if the election resulted in a minority government.
“My position has been clear on these matters for more than a decade. No deal will be offered and no deal will be done,” Mr Andrews said.
“I am urging Victorians to vote for a strong, stable, majority Labor government … so that we can have a bigger economy and more people in work.”
By contrast Mr Guy visited a string of electorates across Melbourne including Ringwood, Oakleigh, Caulfield and Eltham.
He said he was confident the Liberals would defy public opinion polls and form government.
“I think Victorians will, at the end of the day, opt for a new government and a fresh start,” he said.
“Steve Bracks came back from a margin that was rated. These things have been done before in recent times and I’m confident we will do that tonight.”
Mr Guy said he believed Victorians were looking for a fresh start.
“They are genuinely looking for an answer to the woes of our health system, and I know that most Victorians can trust the Liberals.”
The first party to win 45 of the 88 lower house seats will form majority government.
Labor Treasurer Tim Pallas says this election campaign has been more intense then previous years, alluding to some “harder days” at pre-polling booths.
Mr Pallas hopes to retain the seat of Werribee, a traditionally safe Labor seat that has been in the spotlight this year after polls suggested support for the party had dropped in the western suburbs.
Speaking outside the voting booth at Werribee Primary School, Mr Pallas told the Herald Sun the lead up to the vote had “been a little bit strained”.
“I just think that in practical terms, people have been through a lot and we’ve had a lot of views that are being expressed through the political process,” he said.
“It’s really just a demonstration that people have been through a lot and they want to express themselves in a democratic way at the end of the day, that’s not a bad thing.
“Certainly today is probably one of the more positive days compared to some of the harder days on pre-poll, but overwhelmingly pretty positive.”
His comments follow a disagreement at a pre-polling booth earlier, that ended with both Labor and the Freedom Party filing complaints with the VEC about each other’s behaviour respectively.
Freedom Party candidate Martin Strother filmed Pallas outside a polling station.
Pallas walked up close to the camera, questioning why he was being filmed, with Mr Strother alleging he tried to reach for the camera.
The Labor Party has lodged a complaint with police.
Liberal candidate Mia Shaw and Independent Paul Hopper hope to challenge Mr Pallas in tonight’s count, but campaigners on the ground acknowledged this would be hard in such a strong Labor seat.
Regardless of the result, Mr Pallas said he expected the count would take longer than most expect.
“If you count the pre-polls and postal votes in this electorate, about 60 per cent of the electorate have already voted before today,” he said.
Regional independents key to Labor victory
Earlier this month Premier Daniel Andrews told media “no deal will be offered and no deal will be done” with minor parties or independents in the event of a hung parliament.
But you can bet at the first sign of any major backlash against Labor, the Premier will call on independents Suzanna Sheed in Shepparton and Mildura’s Ali Cupper for support to stay in power.
Labor once again relying on regional independent MPs, as they did during the former Bracks Government’s first term, could prove invaluable in getting the funds redirected from Melbourne’s “Big Builds” to desperately needed road and recovery work in regional Victoria.
Full story here.
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