The kingmakers set to decide Victoria’s deadlock

With a minority government looming as the most likely outcome of the election, those set to hold the balance of power reveal their demands.

Potential kingmakers have revealed their priorities should they hold the balance of power after Saturday’s election.

Billions of dollars in new spending for country rail, better roads and new hospitals would be demanded by independents if they held the balance of power next term.

Recent polls show support for Labor has dived, meaning the chance of a minority government – where a party needs crossbench or opposition support to pass legislation – has increased.

In Victoria, a party needs to hold 45 of 88 electorates to form government in its own right, and pollsters say a bad day for the ALP could see them drop into the low 40s.

This would force them to turn to independents, Greens, or minor party MPs for support to pass the budget and to change laws.

The Herald Sunspoke to a number of potential kingmakers about how they would exert influence if they win seats and hold the balance of power.

Major party insiders believe serving independents – Mildura MP Ali Cupper and Shepparton MP Suzanna Sheed – would be the first MPs turned to by Labor to guarantee supply, due to a cordial relationship this term.

Mildura MP Ali Cupper has ruled out providing her ‘unconditional support’ in the event of a hung parliament.

Shepparton MP Suzanna Sheed is one of the first Labor will turn to should they seek to form a minority government. Picture: Zoe Phillips

Ms Cupper, who is fending off a strong challenge from the National Party, said if she were re-elected and had the “holy grail” of a balance of power vote she “would not be squandering that by giving my unconditional support at this time”.

Ms Cupper said she would drive a hard bargain at the negotiation table with two key issues – a public hospital and the return of passenger rail to the region – the core concerns of constituents.

“In the result of a hung parliament the price of my support would be rail,” she said.

The Parliamentary Budget Office estimated upgrading stations and regauging rail lines for passenger services would be $22m, while experts say operating the line for five years could increase that be up to $100m.

Independent candidate for Point Cook Dr Joe Garra says he would push for more cash and projects for the west.

Dr Ian Birchall, independent candidate for Melton, will support the party with the biggest commitment to health and education for the western suburbs.

In Benambra in northern Victoria, Jacqui Hawkins is running for the second time as a country independent and declared: “I won’t be doing any deals with either party that compromises my ability to remain absolutely independent”.

Ms Hawkins said she would seek commitments for better childcare services and a new single-site hospital at the border with NSW rather than the current $558m rebuild of the existing Albury Base Hospital.

Major parties may also have to turn to Melbourne’s west, where independents could win seats in Labor’s historic heartland.

Independent Kew candidate Sophie Torney has campaigned on bolstered powers for the anti-corruption watchdog and urgent climate action. Picture: David Crosling

Point Cook candidate Dr Joe Garra said if he was elected he would support budget supply for whoever had the most seats, as well as push for more projects and cash for the west.

“Every other bill would be considered by discussion,” he said.

Melton candidate Dr Ian Birchall, said he would also support any party that commits more cash to hospitals, education, public transport and other key areas in the west.

“I’ll take any plans that (sees) money go from the eastern side of Victoria to the west because they’ve been missing out for too long,” he said.

“Anything that gives us funding for major infrastructure, I’ll support.”

After major victories in the federal election by “teal” independents, much attention has turned to what state counterparts could demand.

Kew candidate Sophie Torney, who is seeking to make history in the formerly safe Liberal seat, said the state’s anti-corruption watchdog had some of the weakest powers in the country, and that she has also campaigned on urgent climate action, a strong economy based on renewable energy, and the end of native forest logging.

“My vote in parliament will always be a conscience vote based on feedback from the Kew community and expert advice. I will judge every piece of legislation on its merits,” she said.

The Victorian Greens issued a wishlist last week detailing their demands for supporting a minority government — which led both major parties to rule out a formal deal.

Key demands from the left wing party include support for new integrity legislation, limiting rent increases to the rate of wage hikes, and a ban on native logging next year.

Party leader Samantha Ratnam said: “The Greens are the only party that can hold a Labor Government to account, and we’ll be ready on day one, whether in minority government or not, to bring our state’s integrity standards up to scratch”.