Labor on track to lose up to a dozen seats in Victorian election

Shocking new polling reveals Labor is on track to lose the seats needed to form a government in its own right.

Victoria is on course for a minority government, with Labor losing about a dozen seats in Saturday’s election, according to an analysis by a major bipartisan polling agency.

RedBridge Group is predicting the most likely scenario on November 26 will see Labor on about 43 seats – two short of the 45 needed to form a government in its own right.

Research suggests support for Labor – which now boasts 55 seats to the Coalition’s 27 – is sliding fast.

RedBridge – which has conducted extensive polling and hundreds of focus groups in key seats across the state over the past two years – warns if Labor’s fears of a late tidal wave of revolt against Daniel Andrews are realised, the party could lose anything from 15 to 25 seats.

But a mass exodus is thought to be extremely unlikely, with the Coalition believed to be too far behind to make up the total needed for victory while it is also expected to lose key seats to the teals.

The best-case scenario for Labor would see the party on 48 seats and a majority for the third time in a row, according to the pollsters, but that would still wipe its 2018 gains and leave it with the lowest number of seats since coming to power in 2014.

Daniel Andrews’ Labor party could lose up to dozen seats. Picture: David Geraghty

However the most likely scenario is a Labor minority, forcing it to do a deal with regional independents, teals or the Greens.

The RedBridge analysis predicts Labor will lose key seats of Bayswater, Bass, Nepean and Pakenham to the Liberal Party, while Ashwood, Box Hill and Ringwood are under serious threat.

In Melbourne’s west, Melton, Point Cook and Werribee, which is currently held by Treasurer Tim Pallas, could all be lost to independent candidates.

Pollsters have been predicting the party is unlikely to retain Melton, with a recent redistribution favouring Dr Ian Birchall, who is running again after a strong showing in 2018 when Labor picked up just 35 per cent of the primary vote.

The Greens are tipped to win Richmond and Northcote from Labor, with both Albert Park and Footscray also considered as chances for the minor party.

Party insiders say even the typically safe Labor seat of Pascoe Vale could fall to the Greens.

Labor is not expected to retain the seat of Hawthorn, which it won unexpectedly in 2018, while Eltham, Monbulk, Cranbourne and Eureka are all considered to be in play for the Coalition.

RedBridge director Kos Samaras said the gap between a majority and minority Labor government had narrowed during the formal campaign period.

“Labor now has to defend a broad front of seats, pressured by the Coalition, Greens and independents,” he said.

“A similar problem is faced by the Coalition, aiming to secure seats off Labor, defend seats against the teals and play Russian roulette with independents in Melbourne’s outer west.

“Labor could fall into minority government but the beneficiary will not only be the Coalition. Greens and independents may end up winning seats off Labor.”

Matthew Guy’s Liberal party could form government if Labor loses 20 seats. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Party polling shows the Premier’s favourability rating has taken a huge hit, with Labor insiders blaming a host of campaign errors.

Labor insiders have reported increasing levels of “anti-Dan” sentiment at polling booths across the state since early voting opened last week.

RedBridge senior consultant Tony Barry said with Mr Andrews now a drag on the Labor vote, a minority government appeared to be the most likely outcome.

“Victoria is becoming a state of smaller and smaller tribes and that’s why we are seeing this fragmented vote pattern. That’s because we are no longer a state of shared experiences and shared values,” he said.

“Campaign orthodoxy has always been Labor versus Coalition contests.

“But in the new political paradigm we are now seeing a series of new contests including Labor versus Greens; Liberals versus teals; and Labor versus independents in their outer suburban heartland.

“The political ground is moving and it’s redrawing the political map.

“But in political campaigns, you never know who’s swimming nude until the tide goes out.”

With two days left before election day, more than 1 million of the state’s 4.4 million eligible voters have already cast their votes.

Latest polling shows support for Labor and the Coalition on a knife edge with the parties’ primary vote tied at 36 per cent.

Labor sources said internal research had been predicting as long as 12 months ago that the party could lose up to 10 seats, with an expected backlash against the government’s pandemic lockdowns.