‘Our polling was sh*t’: Libs’ blame game begins

As the Liberals gathered at a bowling club bar, the big question was how could the party have been so blindsided by the result for the second time in four years?

A small crowd of Liberals gathered in the heart of Matthew Guy’s seat of Bulleen on Saturday night. Picture: David Caird

By 10.15pm, there were almost as many media representatives as Liberals at the Doncaster Bowling Club.

The internal polls and the reports from volunteers at the booths had led Liberals to believe that a miracle win might be on the cards.

If that was a dream too far, more sober party observers thought at least the signs were good that they might be a decent shot at victory in four years.

It was not to be.

Though former Davis Cup tennis player Sam Groth had snatched Nepean and Aaron Brown, the son of former Liberal leader Alan Brown, looked to have won Bass, it was looking like the only other victory would be Pakenham.

Liberals at Doncaster Bowling Club. Picture: David Caird

Toss in the National Party’s likely wins in Mildura, Morwell and Shepparton and it was looking like the net Coalition gain would be six seats, which could end up being only more than the Greens, who snatched Richmond and Northcote and were in the hunt for Albert Park, Footscray and Pascoe Vale.

A net gain of six seats would at least mean the Liberals would enter 2026 with a slightly better show than they started this contest, but by the time the crowd was marshalling around the podium for the arrival of Matthew Guy at 10.45pm, it was looking like the Liberals could also drop four seats – Bayswater, Mount Waverley, Ripon and Polwarth – to Labor.

There was not even to be the consolation prize of Daniel Andrews’ seat of Mulgrave, where the Liberals had hoped their preferences might elect independent Ian Cook.

Earlier in the evening, as the bad news spread, the message around the room had been “wait for the prepoll”.

The reasoning here was that more anti-Dan Victorians had voted early and when the Victorian Electoral Commission eventually got around to those boxes things would turn around.

Guy hit the stage about 10.49pm.

He congratulated the Premier on his victory, adding: “I think it is important now that after the election that we come together as Victorians, knowing that the best of our state should be ahead of us, not behind us.”

Matthew Guy conceding defeat on Saturday night. Picture: David Caird

Guy said if there was a silver lining to an otherwise pretty dark cloud for the Liberal Party, it was that “with a swing of around 4 per cent to us, and many prepoll votes to come, we will finish, despite what many commentators say, we will finish with more seats in the parliament in both the lower house and the other house”.

He then paused to thank the party’s state director and his deputy, who he said, “had worked incredibly efficiently, particularly in the last month”.

This was not a view shared by many in the room, to put it mildly, with Guy’s arrival on the stage prompting a senior frontbencher to say that the party’s pollster and secretariat “need to be sacked”.

How the party had deluded itself that it was going to win seats for which it was clearly never in the hunt, while for the second time in four years failing to realise it was in trouble in seats it already held, will be the focus of intense anger in the coming months.

Expect the recriminations to start with whoever was responsible for the decision to give a second chance to the same pollster who failed so badly in 2018.

“Clearly, our polling was shit,” was the blunt comment of a senior Liberal earlier in the evening. “Utterly shit.”

Guy’s exit from the stage will also mark the end of his career as a politician.

He might not have quit on the spot but everyone knows this is the end for him, including himself. He’s given his best and is tired.

As for who will replace him, another senior frontbencher summed up that dilemma and what the Liberal Party’s future holds after their second belting in a row: “F--k knows.”