The reasons for and against Matthew Guy’s return to Liberal leadership

Matthew Guy has learned from his mistakes but he’s also already lost an election. The reasons for and against his return to leadership.

Matthew Guy is poised to regain the Opposition leadership this week. Here are the biggest reasons for and against his return

THE GOOD

He’s not Michael O’Brien

A recent Herald Sun poll showed that one in five Victorians didn’t know who O’Brien was, while 63 per cent believed that Guy would be a better leader.

He’s Matthew Guy

A powerful and passionate speaker, Guy’s speech in parliament during the second wave was one of the more memorable delivered anywhere during Covid. “This state is on its knees, and the morons we get in this government, they blame everyone else,” he said. “They blame Victorians.’’

You can watch it here.

He’s learned from his mistakes

He won’t try to out-tough Andrews. Guy played safe in 2018 and got steamrolled. This won’t be a law-and-order election, but instead a battle that Guy will try to pivot on ALP mistakes, of which there have been many.

Experience counts

WA’s Mark McGowan lost an election and now boasts scary levels of political power. South Australian Premier Steven Marshall lost an election. Jeff Kennett lost two – the first loss, in 1985, was so painful Kennett curled into the foetal position. Howard lost an election, even Menzies did. The point? You can come back from electoral oblivion and win. Guy might consider replicating McGowan’s so-called “listening tour” after McGowan lost the 2013 state election.

Matthew Guy, his wife, Renae, and their kids Joseph, Sam and Alexander before the 2018 state election. Picture: Tony Gough

He’ll talk about his family

The Guys’ family hardships in lockdown are well understood by so many struggling Victorians. Guy could resonate in expressing his deep-seated frustration. By contrast, Michael O’Brien will only ever pose for pictures with his dog.

Party fundraising dollars

They will start flowing again after they slowed with O’Brien leading the Liberals.

It’s a two horse race

No one else will challenge, partly because the bench is pretty thin, but at least there should be improved partyroom unity until November 2022.

All Victorians wanted today was a little bit of hope. All we got instead was a lot more cruel lecturing.

— Matthew Guy MP (@MatthewGuyMP) September 1, 2021

Kids on playgrounds. Dangerous super spreaders one day - causes some poor internal polling - then they’re totally safe the next! #ThePoliticsOfFearAndCovid

— Matthew Guy MP (@MatthewGuyMP) September 1, 2021

Rapid Covid testing could have saved the GF and it’s thousands of jobs for Melbourne. The pig headed refusal by the state govt to adopt rapid testing has cost us yet another major event. How the hell will we ever get all these lost events back. https://t.co/0iUC296EBv

— Matthew Guy MP (@MatthewGuyMP) August 31, 2021

THE BAD

He lost the 2018 last election

By a whopping margin. Like whopping. If it was a horse race, Guy lost by the length of the Flemington straight. The ALP won 55 seats to the Coalition’s 27, of which the Libs only won 21, in a swing to the incumbent government of 5 per cent.

Incumbent governments, especially those which have been scandal-ridden, are not supposed to increase their majority. Regardless of who is leader, and the mood of the voters, simple numbers suggest the Coalition cannot win the next election. Does Guy want to be the bloke who lost two elections badly?

He’s Matthew Guy

Either Guy didn’t listen to advice, or he received poor advice in 2018. He didn’t play to his strengths (also weaknesses) of humour and passion, and his campaign was dogged both by misguided policy and internal discord.

Matthew Guy concedes defeat at the 2018 state election. Picture: David Crosling

The Liberals have a weak team

Pop quiz: How many shadow ministers can you name? One of their more competent performers, O’Brien, will likely be white-anting Guy. The opposition has gone largely unheard in its criticisms of the government, despite the polarising manner of Andrews.

Covid crises reward incumbents

Even though Dan Andrews oversaw the deadly second wave and a world-record lockdown, voters tend to embrace the status quo for fear of something worse. It’s called better-the-devil- you-know. WA’s McGowan, and Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk had strong wins in Covid — albeit without 800 deaths and 200-plus days in lockdown. Then again, Donald Trump came close to winning the US election despite his unprecedented incoherence and chaos of his final months in power.

The party machine is still dysfunctional and factionally driven

The last spill of the Liberal Party leadership, in March, was so amateurish and poorly planned that it only deepened the sense of Coalition irrelevance and cluelessness. Rumours have persisted since 2018 of internal dissent over party administration.

THE UGLY

Lobster with a mobster

Critics will revive Guy’s unwise decision in 2017 to dine with alleged mafia figure Tony Maddaferi. The Beaumaris meal, washed down with Penfolds Grange, still doubles as the most expensive – and most heartburn-inducing – lobster ever eaten in this state.