Shannon Deery: Leadership challenge against Michael O’Brien has been building for months
The spill against Michael O’Brien may have been meticulously orchestrated, but the Libs better hope it doesn’t blow up in their faces.
Opinion
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It was only a matter of time before Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien faced another leadership spill.
If his 30 Liberal MP colleagues can make a party room meeting work this week, he will almost certainly be rolled.
Unlike the snap spill that rocked the party in March, this challenge has been meticulously orchestrated.
For months senior Liberal figures have been plotting the move.
There had been hopes O’Brien would amicably step aside, take a plum shadow ministry, and remain a key part of the team.
His political killing won’t be slow and drawn out.
It will be a swift hit.
And it will be one he sees coming.
O’Brien’s been on notice since March to improve the party’s prospects or face another challenge.
But party sources say he’s buried his head in the sand since then.
Many key problems identified by his colleagues were left unaddressed, including being inaccessible to colleagues.
He might have made moves to restructure his office, but repeatedly refused to take advice from key supporters, according to well-placed sources.
And he has continued to be unable to land a blow on Daniel Andrews.
O’Brien has hung his hat on the fact that he fended off that spill motion 22 to 9.
The reality is that practically a third of the party wanted him gone then, and that number has grown.
Competing interests between two groups of MPs that saved O’Brien then have now been resolved.
Despite leading the party to a historic election loss in 2018, former leader Matthew Guy has only ever been the possible contender.
He’s repeatedly denied any interest in a return to the top job, and needed persuading to reconsider.
Sources said internal polling presented to the party on Friday may have finally convinced him to start formally ringing colleagues to shore up support for a change.
It followed Herald Sun polling in June that showed the opposition was gaining ground on Labor, but that 63 per cent of voters wanted Guy as leader, compared to 37 per cent who backed O’Brien.
Because while it was good from a team point of view, it was awful about O’Brien personally.
One senior Liberal said: “Matthew’s been at home for months homeschooling kids. He knows the pain that average Victorians have been through. He feels he can be a voice for the suppressed. For those that feel they don’t have a say in Victoria”.
“He feels Michael has done an OK job but is not the person to deliver the hope needed and the plan. It will be a very different Matthew to what we saw in 2014-2018.
“He has learnt a lot. He is much more humble and open to advice. He’s widened the circle enormously.”
Senior Liberals now firmly believe Guy is the best man to take on Labor at the 2022 election.
The key will be trying to convince O’Brien he is a valued part of the team amid fears that if he is rolled, he could “blow the place up”.
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