Matthew Guy launches leadership coup to oust Michael O’Brien

Michael O’Brien and Matthew Guy are set to face-off at an in-person partyroom challenge for the Liberal leadership on Tuesday.

Victorian Liberal leader Michael O'Brien is facing a leadership challenge.

Michael O’Brien is set to face a partyroom challenge early Tuesday morning, with an in person meeting now locked in.

The 31 Liberal MPs will meet at 7.45am with a motion to spill the leadership to be moved.

The meeting is set to be held at the Liberal Party’s Melbourne headquarters.

Consideration had been given to holding the meeting virtually if a workaround couldn’t be found to hold the meeting in person in line with Covid restrictions.

Earlier today, Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien was being urged to resign as head of the Victorian Liberals “for the good of the party”.

Mr O’Brien was being lobbied by financial backers, business leaders and Liberal party figures to step aside and make way for the return of former leader Matthew Guy.

But O’Brien refused to step aside, and a Covid safe way to hold a party room meeting under current restrictions was sought.

Both sides claim they believe they have the votes necessary to win a leadership vote.

When approached by media outside his house on Monday, Mr Guy said “time will tell” whether he has the numbers to topple O’Brien, but signalled a desire to get a partyroom meeting done.

He declined to comment on whether he had the votes needed to secure the Liberal leadership as he handed out cookies to waiting media.

“I can’t really comment on that, that’s a party matter, but I hope we meet tomorrow and we’ll see if everything is resolved,” he said.

“We’ll wait and see, time will tell.”

Michael O’Brien and Matthew Guy both claim to have the votes to win.

Key Liberal MP Brad Battin backed “change” at Tuesday’s challenge, with his voting block expected to support Matthew Guy.

“I am supporting change” Battin said on Monday.

The former shadow minister’s support is considered crucial after he garnered nine votes when he challenged Michael O’Brien in March, with Guy’s supporters backing the incumbent.

Mr Guy and Kew MP Tim Smith stepped down from their positions in Mr O’Brien’s shadow cabinet on Monday morning.

“Michael’s situation is now untenable,” one source said.

“He’s being urged by all quarters that he should stand aside for the good of the party.

“But his personality is to fight. If he fights, he loses.”

Sources close to O’Brien say he has been left incensed by the challenge, with his office blindsided by the move.

But senior Liberals say the challenge should have come as no surprise, with O’Brien on notice since a failed leadership coup in March.

Since then he has lost the unwavering support of a number of senior Liberal figures.

The Herald Sun has been told the shift of key MPs to Guy’s camp convinced a number of other MPs to follow suit.

Party sources said the challenge could still go ahead even if the party’s MPs could not meet in person, with a virtual toppling being mooted.

“The minute there’s a vote, he’s (O’Brien) dead, and he knows it,” one senior source said.

“Guy has the numbers.

“Michael is being urged to stand down, including by people very close to him.

“But his personality doesn’t suggest that will happen.”

Several Liberal sources have told the Herald Sun that Mr O’Brien will be rolled at the first opportunity the party’s MPs can gather in person.

It is believed Mr O’Brien is keen to bring any challenge on as soon as possible.

A formal request has been lodged for an in-person meeting, with MPs waiting on confirmation about whether or not it can go ahead due to coronavirus restrictions.

Mr Guy’s camp was trying to convince Mr O’Brien to stand down over recent days but will now seek a vote of 31 Liberal MPs on the party leadership.

It is understood Mr Guy has strong backing within the partyroom and believes he has a solid majority to topple Mr O’Brien amid growing frustration about the Coalition’s ­inability to gain ground against Premier Daniel Andrews.

Liberal Party sources have told the Herald Sun that research indicates Mr O’Brien is driving votes to Labor and private polling shows “he will take the party backwards”.

In June, an independent poll commissioned by the Herald Sun showed one fifth of voters had not heard of Mr O’Brien and 63 per cent of those surveyed would prefer to see Mr Guy back in the job.

Mr Guy’s camp has been trying to convince Mr O’Brien since Friday to go of his own volition.

The spill comes as members of the party grow frustrated at Michael O’Brien. Picture: David Crosling

A senior source said: “Any idea that Michael O’Brien is in a solid position to win the next election is utter garbage.

“There is a substantial amount of private and public polling that shows O’Brien is a vote winner for the Labor Party.

“The worst thing we could do is continue with the current leader who has squibbed every opportunity he has been presented on a platter for the last 18 months.”

There was a “substantial majority for change”, according to senior sources.

A strategy day on Zoom on Friday involving MPs, party officials and pollsters, highlighted their problems with the current leadership.

There is a Zoom party meeting scheduled for Tuesday, which Mr Guy’s camp is requesting be held in person in a Covid-safe environment in Parliament House in order to spill the deputy leader and leader positions.

“All they need is a partyroom and there will be a vote. It’s as simple as that,” one senior source said.

If that request is refused, there will be a petition for an alternative meeting as soon as possible.

Mr Guy’s name has been associated with a leadership coup all year and he has been mulling a decision about making a move for several weeks. He had been hesitant to make the move after being bruised by a thumping electoral defeat at the 2018 election.

Mr Andrews’ landslide win netted his party 55 seats in the lower house compared to just 27 for the Coalition, a swing of nearly 5 per cent towards Labor.

Matthew Guy has quietly been mounting a challenge.

But sources said Mr Guy had put aside concerns of dysfunction within the party because he felt he had to come back to stop an electoral wipe-out in 2022.

There are mounting fears the Liberals will lose more seats at the election under Mr O’Brien, taking them to a position of near annihilation.

A key complaint within the party has been that the Opposition has been unable to gain ground on Labor despite six crippling lockdowns and an inquiry into the state’s bungled hotel quarantine program.

Despite rising angst over the lockdowns, Liberal MPs have privately suggested not enough was being done to focus the attention on the government’s mistakes.

Supporters of Mr Guy believe he is capable of shoring up votes being driven towards Labor and would be able to regain ground in traditional Coalition heartland.

But, if he is successful, he is expected to be quickly targeted over a 2017 dinner with alleged mafia figure Tony Madafferi at the Lobster Cave restaurant in Beaumaris.

Revelations about the meeting were aired before Mr Andrews’ landslide election win and similar attacks against him are likely to be revived by Labor if he returns to the role.

Close supporters of Mr O’Brien had grown increasingly confident he would survive until the 2022 election. They cited polling that suggested he was in a better position than Ted Baillieu before his successful election, which others within the Liberals have dismissed as incorrect.

The move will rock the party and risks derailing a recent shake-up of key positions.

He survived an unsuccessful coup earlier in the year from Mr Battin, with MPs who have been linked to Mr Guy choosing to throw their votes behind Mr O’Brien at the time.

But one MP said the mood towards the leader of the opposition had turned and that even some of those within his own faction were signalling a need for change.

Another said Mr Guy’s supporters had been waiting for the right moment.

“Despite a lot of effort there has not been the cut-through we were hoping for,” they said. “People are looking at each other wondering who will be the first to shift their vote.”

It is not yet clear if Mr Guy would have the numbers to secure a spill, but sources said his decision to start making calls was a strong indication he felt he was close to securing the votes needed.

The move will rock the party and risks derailing a recent shake-up of key positions.