Shannon Deery: Guy 2.0 a fait accompli for Libs seeking reboot

The Victorian Liberals will have a new leader. But is Matthew Guy 2.0 an upgrade and how much trouble will a departing Michael O’Brien cause?

Matthew Guy has the numbers to become Opposition Leader again. Picture: AAP

Publicly, Matthew Guy will only say “time will tell” when asked whether he’s got enough support to topple opposition leader Michael O’Brien.

Privately, he knows he does.

After months of weighing up a potential return to the leadership, Guy was pretty sure the numbers were stacked in his favour when he started ringing colleagues on Sunday.

To pick up the phone otherwise would have been career suicide, and would have killed any leadership ambitions he harboured.

By midmorning Monday it was clear that he had the overwhelming support of the party’s 31 state MPs.

It included the support of key O’Brien loyalists, who pledged allegiance to Guy, in exchange for assurances on a range of key issues.

Among them, that he distance Kew MP and close ally Tim Smith from the leadership.

“They wanted to know Matthew is not tied to the hip of Tim, that Tim is not running the show,” a key source said.

Matthew Guy has been warned he needs more positivity this time around. Picture: AAP

But they also wanted assurances that the Guy 2.0 is a vastly improved version of the 2018 model that led the party to a historic election drubbing.

They want his office to run vastly differently from his last stint in the job, “less macho and more collaborative”.

“He has to present as a family man and a statesman and leave the head kicking to others,” a Liberal source said.

“Matthew has told them that he agrees on the points and knows he has to be different this time.

“He needs less aggressiveness and more positivity.”

It will be a tough balance to strike for Guy, who will need to immediately carve out a very different image to that of O’Brien who has been criticised for being too placid.

Despite a resignation among the MPs that Guy had the numbers to stage a coup, as many as 20 of the 31 MPs by some estimates, O’Brien has insisted he won’t resign.

There has been growing pressure on him by financial backers, business leaders and key Liberals to quietly stand down.

In return he would be offered a plum frontbench role in a shadow cabinet shake-up.

Sources say Michael O’Brien will dig his heels in. Picture: Ian Currie

But sources close to O’Brien say his refusal to do so is the consequence of pride, and a sense of betrayal after public assurance by Guy that he wouldn’t challenge for the leadership ahead of next year’s election.

Despite evidence to the contrary, O’Brien is maintaining that he can secure enough support to keep the top job.

“He has dug his heels in and won’t budge. It’s our expectation, if he loses, that he’ll quit the party and spark a by-election,” one source said.

“He’s too proud to hang around. He’d be a valued member of the team, but he doesn’t seem interested.”

Critics say it is evidence of O’Brien’s willingness to keep his head in the sand, an issue that has angered colleagues and constituents.

The move to topple him was orchestrated over many months, and would have come sooner if Covid restrictions had allowed.

But there was difficulty in getting all 31 MPs in a room to hold a vote.

By Monday, various options had been canvassed, with some MPs suggesting using a parliamentary chamber or park to workaround current density limits.

Talks of a virtual meeting were scuppered when O’Brien himself called a partyroom meeting, to be held at the Liberal Party HQ at 7.45am on Tuesday.

“Now all we have to wait and see is how much blood will be spilled on the floor,” one source said.

If he succeeds in toppling O’Brien, Guy has promised his colleagues that he will offer Victorians a real alternative government.

“It will be all about a post-Covid future and the rebuilding of Victoria,” one source close to Guy said.

“There will be more pressure on Andrews, but it won’t simply be about attacking him at every opportunity.

“It will be about putting up a real alternative to the mob that has been in charge for the last seven years.”