Party polling shows Premier Daniel Andrews battling ‘unprecedented’ image problem ahead of election

The Premier is battling an unprecedented image problem one week out from the state election, party polling shows.

Daniel Andrews is battling an unprecedented image problem with party polling showing the Premier is on the nose with voters.

One week out from the state election, Labor Party insiders say the Andrews brand has become toxic, including with the female vote where he previously ranked highly.

Labor figures have reportedly been shocked by the consistent drop in the party’s primary vote, which began during the pandemic and has failed to recover.

The Premier’s favourability rating has taken a huge hit as the opposition and anti-lockdown groups have sought to make the election a referendum on his personality.

The Liberals have used Mr Andrews’ image in attack ­advertisements even more often than Labor has in positive ­advertisements with both sides banking heavily on the tactic of playing on his personal brand.

Although Labor is still the favourite to win, the party is bracing for a sobering evening on November 26 as seats where they hit historic high results return to the centre and even flip back.

Premier Daniel Andrews is battling an unprecedented image problem. Picture: Ian Currie

Speculation is mounting that a hung parliament is possible or that a result will not be known on polling day.

Sources have told the Herald Sun that strategic decisions had caused disagreements between the Premier’s Private Office and campaign headquarters.

Claims this had led to tensions between the offices have been disputed.

Liberal Party sources said tracking data had shown the Premier’s favourability rating had tanked since revelations two weeks ago he was involved in a fourth corruption probe.

On Friday his unfavourability rating hit a record low 51 per cent, according to the Liberal Party data.

“Basically half the state don’t like him,” a senior campaign source said.

“When it comes to the desired outcome for the election only 44 per cent of all voters want a Labor win.

“Only 50 per cent of Labor voters want Labor to win and 38 per cent want a Labor minority. Even Labor’s own supporters are concerned about giving Dan unfettered control.”

Liberal Party sources said Opposition Leader Matthew Guy’s referral to the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission had stalled his campaign momentum. But the mood was otherwise “upbeat”.

“We don’t want people to vote early. Each track poll comes back with their primary down further,” one source said. “Andrews is increasingly a negative for them.”

Labor insiders report increasing “anti-Dan” sentiment at polling stations since early voting opened on Monday.

More than 500,000 voters have voted, with some observers expecting an early protest vote over the government’s pandemic management and handling of the health system.

“Dan is in unknown territory,” a senior Labor source said. “There’s a reason the Liberals are using pictures of Daniel Andrews on their campaign material. Labor has walked into a trap. It’s starting to look pretty ugly.

“It will come down to who voters dislike more, Dan or Matthew.”

Polling revealed by the Herald Sun this week showed support for Labor and the Coalition on a knife edge with the real prospect of a hung parliament.

The RedBridge poll estimated that once the undecided vote was distributed, the Labor and Coalition primary totals would be 38 per cent.

Labor insiders say the election will come down to who voters hate more—Daniel Andrews or Matthew Guy. Picture: David Crosling

The Victorian Greens claim their research shows they are in with a strong chance to win Northcote and Pascoe Vale from Labor.

Northcote has been a target seat throughout the campaign, along with Richmond and Albert Park. But the typically safe Labor seat of Pascoe Vale has not been in the spotlight until now.

Some say Footscray could also fall to the Greens.

Federal Greens leader Adam Bandt said the party’s data had it on track for a “very, very good showing”.

He said the mood on the ground reminded him of the party’s surprise victories in Queensland during the federal election.

“Northcote in November feels like Brisbane in May,” Mr Bandt said.

“Don’t be surprised if the seats of Northcote and Pascoe Vale turn green at this election. The ground campaign that has been run by the people-powered movement here in Northcote has seen over 12,000 doors knocked on.

“It’s no surprise that Premier Daniel Andrews was here yesterday (for a press conference).

“This is a seat where people are switching their votes.”

It’s understood Labor has become more optimistic about its chances in Melton in Melbourne’s west where it is anticipating a backlash.

Pollsters have been predicting the party is unlikely to retain the seat after a redistribution favoured Ian Birchall, an independent candidate running again after a strong showing in 2018.

This has been coupled with growing perception in the community that they are neglected on transport, education, health and jobs centres.

Labor strategists suggest there has been a recent improvement in this sentiment.