Big issues that’ll influence your vote in Victoria’s state election
From the cost of living woes to our broken health system — these big issues will influence your vote at the polls next month.
State Election
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The state election campaign might feel like it’s been going for months, but the official election period doesn’t start until Cup Day.
At 6pm on Tuesday the writs – the official documents ordering that an election be held – will be issued and the election campaign proper will be under way.
Victoria will then enter caretaker mode and campaigning will begin in earnest.
Any legislation still before parliament will lapse, and all parliamentary committee inquiries will cease.
Daniel Andrews is expected to board his campaign bus for the first time on Wednesday, spending the next four weeks travelling the state to unveil a raft of election promises. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy will do the same, but has ditched the traditional campaign bus.
Cost of living, health, the state of Victoria’s finances and integrity have all shaped up to be major issues ahead of the election. Both major parties have focused almost entirely on health until now, with these and other key issues set to be debated over the coming weeks.
1. Cost of living
Inflation and interest rates are rising and the price of food, gas, petrol and rent have skyrocketed over the last six months.
With little relief in this week’s federal budget, voters will now ask how a state government can offer some hip pocket relief, especially with another rate hike tipped for before the election.
While the ALP has been slow to unveil cost of living election commitments, the Coalition is promising slashed public transport fares during its first term in government.
The move would see the cost of metropolitan train, tram and bus tickets reduced to just $2 all day, every day.
V/Line fares would be halved.
The major parties are expected to up the ante on cost of living measures throughout the campaign in a bid to attract concerned voters.
The state of the economy is the number one driver of distress throughout the country.
Latest polling by Ipsos shows no other issue comes close to worrying Victorians as much as the cost of living.
More than half of all respondents surveyed, or 55 per cent, cited cost of living as the most critical issue.
The issue is followed by healthcare, housing, petrol prices and the economy — meaning three of the top five issues relate to cost of living.
2. Health
Health is always a key election issue.
But with Victoria’s health system in crisis the issue has so far dominated the campaign.
Both Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy have thrown billions of dollars of promises for new and improved hospitals and a beefed up workforce.
Ahead of his first term in government in 2014, Andrews made repairing the health system a major plank of his campaign.
Despite reaching record levels before Covid, ambulance response times are now worse than they were before Labor came to power.
Surgery waiting list times for urgent category one procedures are rising and our hospitals are overrun.
The government blames the ongoing effects of Covid, but the Opposition maintains that after eight years in power Labor has failed to properly maintain the system.
The state government committed $12bn in this year’s budget to fix the broken system, and Labor has added another $4bn in health related election commitments.
It includes $1bn to redevelop Maroondah Hospital and rename it after Queen Elizabeth II.
The ALP has also promised a $1bn upgrade of the Austin hospital, a new hospital for West Gippsland and a redeveloped Monash Medical Centre.
By contrast the Coalition has vowed to spend $6.5bn across more than 53 health related commitments.
They include a new $900m 275-bed Royal Children’s Hospital in Werribee, a $750m Mildura Hospital and $600m to attract and retain healthcare workers.
It has also promised an upgraded Austin hospital and new hospital for West Gippsland.
3. Suburban rail loop
The biggest and most expensive infrastructure project in Victoria’s history has become a central election issue.
The $50 billion price tag that was attached to the project when it was first announced by Daniel Andrews in 2018 has now blown out to $125bn, according to the Parliamentary Budget Office.
The true cost to Victoria by time the entire 90km line through Melbourne’s middle ring of suburbs from Cheltenham to Werribee is built is anyone’s guess.
Matthew Guy says the project doesn’t stack up, and has promised to shelve the project and divert all available state funds to repairing the health system.
The move would free up more than $9bn in cash to inject into the sector.
The Andrews Government plans to fund the project through a three-way partnership with the federal government and private enterprise.
It has so far allocated $11.8 billion in capital funding towards the first stage of the project, which is expected to cost about $34bn.
Daniel Andrews says the government can build the project and fix the health system.
The fact that the first stage of the project is more than 10 years away from being completed will likely influence voter sentiment.
As will the prospect of employment opportunity it provides, and debt it will contribute to.
If 2014 was a referendum on the East West Link, 2022 is set to be a referendum on the Suburban Rail Loop.
4. Repairing the state’s finances
In a decade Victoria’s debt has risen from $22.3bn in 2014-15 to a projected $162.7bn by 2024-25.
And it’s rising by the day, with another $20bn to be added to that figure in interest payments alone.
Economists have long warned that the scale of the intergenerational debt could constrain Victoria going forward.
While the record debt has done little to affect Labor’s appeal in recent years, the toxic mix of
high debt levels and high interest rates is likely to make voters question who can get the state’s finances back under control.
Matthew Guy has promised to legislate a debt limit into the state’s budget processes if elected.
The figure would be determined after consultation with the Treasury and would only be able to be exceeded with parliamentary approval.
5. Eight year itch
Gough Whitlam famously won the 1972 federal election under the slogan “It’s Time” — it ended 23 years of conservative government.
We might only be up to eight years of the Andrews Government, but Daniel Andrews is facing the same rhetoric.
Part of his challenge is that he became omnipresent throughout the Covid pandemic, and many don’t want to be reminded of those two years of pandemic pain.
The government’s performance and Andrews’ personal performance will be key to voting intentions, with many Victorians still angry over being subjected to the world’s longest lockdown.
The government has done its best to move on from the pandemic, but a residual backlash is expected.
Some voters will ask themselves is life in Victoria better now after eight years of the Andrews government?
Others will cut Labor some slack in recognition of the challenges of governing through the pandemic.
However it will have to respond to fierce criticisms of its pandemic response.
Despite pollsters expecting Labor to lose at least 10 seats, the party remains the clear favourite going into the election, and Mr Andrews remains the preferred Premier.
Still, the question of whether or not “It’s Time” is set to loom large.
6. Integrity
This should shape up as the major issue for voters.
But with question marks hanging over the heads of the leaders of both major parties, the issue could be neutralised.
Daniel Andrews has been personally involved in two known corruption probes, his office investigated over its handling of bullying complaints and was embroiled in the infamous Red Shirts election rort.
There’s an Ombudsman investigation into the politicisation of the public service, and his government has been plagued by a string of controversies.
Matthew Guy has his own problems: between his infamous lobster with a mobster dinner, controversies from his time as planning minister, and a Victorian Electoral Commission investigation outstanding over revelations his former chief of staff, Mitch Catlin, asked a party donor to donate more than $100,000 to his private business.
In the post-Covid political landscape, voter assessments about demonstrated competency might shape up as important as policies about health and economic recovery.
7. Dan v God
The Premier’s recent commentary over the resignation of one-day Essendon CEO Andrew Thorburn could have a knock-on effect at the polls.
Thorburn resigned after less than 30 hours in the gig after his links to a conservative Christian church were made public.
Andrews was quick to weigh in, labelling views held by the church on homosexuality and abortion as “absolutely appalling”.
For many, it was seen as a reminder of just how much the Andrews Government has been injected into Victorian lives and threatens to reinforce the notion of Labor being dictatorial.
Critics have sought to position the Premier’s stance as a useful way to reignite the Dictator Dan theme that has plagued him since the pandemic.
The issue has consolidated the conservative base.
The Family First party has re-entered the election race, for the first time since 2014. It will field more than 50 candidates.
While their record of getting candidates elected is short, the flow of preferences could be crucial in bolstering the Coalition vote.
ELECTION HOT SEATS
The 2022 Victorian election is shaping up to be a tough political battle, with major parties under attack on multiple fronts with vastly different challenges.
The Andrews Government has a commanding 55 seat majority and appears to hold a strong lead in opinion polls, putting them into the box seat to be re-elected.
But the contest is expected to tighten and Victoria has changed since Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy faced off in 2018. Pollsters believe at least 10 Labor seats are in play, placing pressure on both parties to ramp up their pitch to voters.
One of Labor’s most interesting battles will be in suburbs along Melbourne’s fringe. These growth areas have become increasingly frustrated that their schools, hospitals and transport are not keeping up with the population.
Melbourne’s west, a Labor fortress, will be closely watched as independent candidates seek a strong protest vote in areas such as Melton, Werribee and Point Cook.
Labor must fight off its progressive foes, the Victorian Greens, across at least three inner-city electorates.
The Liberals are optimistic they can claim back parts of their heartland in Melbourne’s east such as Ringwood, Bayswater and Box Hill. But they will need to run a sharp campaign and will be threatened by the so-called teal independents.
With so many seats in play, the Herald Sun has compiled a list of important electorates to watch and asked key candidates how they plan to make their mark.
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