Election result hinges on Albo’s next move

Scott Morrison still thinks he’s in with a chance, despite polls revealing Labor is on track to win the election. But his fate now rests with Anthony Albanese.

With a week and a half left in the campaign, this is undoubtedly Anthony Albanese’s election to lose.

Even the worst-case scenario in News Corp’s nationwide YouGov poll still gives the Labor leader the 76 seats he needs to form government in his own right.

Of course, his predecessor Bill Shorten was in a similarly strong position three years ago, and we all know how that turned out.

Scott Morrison won’t give up, and like 2019, he believes he has a pathway to victory.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison thinks he has a pathway to victory, despite polls showing Labor is on track to win. Picture: Jason Edwards

By flipping some outer suburban Labor seats and stemming the bleeding in inner city electorates, the Prime Minister and his team think they are still in with a chance, particularly given millions of voters won’t make up their minds until May 21.

These undecided Australians flocked home to Morrison last time, hence why his message about the risks of changing leaders – fuelled by Albanese’s capacity for unhelpful gaffes – aims to sharpen the choice they are facing now.

The Liberal game plan mirrors Boris Johnson’s demolition of UK Labour’s “red wall” in the 2019 British election.

The election is Anthony Albanese’s to lose. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

This historic shift was predicted by YouGov with a complicated new polling methodology that combined a massive nationwide survey with specific seat-by-seat demographic information.

News Corp’s poll is produced with the same technique, which YouGov is confident produces a more accurate picture of local trends instead of relying on blunt national numbers.

And the bad news for Morrison is it shows he is making no inroads in Albanese’s red wall.

In places like Hunter, Shortland, Parramatta, Paterson, Dunkley, McEwen and Blair, Labor MPs still have their noses in front. Indeed, there is not a seat nationwide which YouGov expects the government to take from the opposition.

Of course, this could change by May 21 if voters sitting on the fence are swayed by Morrison’s message. But it is telling that the Coalition’s strategy is yet to yield any fruit.

Polling data shows Josh Frydenberg is desperately trying to hang on to the seat of Kooyong. Picture: Brendan Beckett

To make matters worse for the Prime Minister, his unpopularity is a key factor in the Coalition’s struggles in the inner city seats YouGov expects them to lose.

He has barely campaigned in places like Higgins, Boothby, Reid and Brisbane, and changing that in the final days would likely be counter-productive.

Josh Frydenberg, the government’s best electoral asset in those areas, will be too busy trying to hang on to his own seat to help his moderate Liberal colleagues elsewhere.

So it is Albanese’s election to lose. There will be speed bumps to come, particularly the devil in the detail of the opposition’s policy costings, and perhaps a wildcard announcement from Morrison at his campaign launch this Sunday.

But the opposition’s strategy is working. It’s down to the Labor leader to guide them to the line.