Election 2022: YouGov data shows independents on track to beat Liberals in key seats

New poll data has revealed independents with the teal movement are on track to knock off senior Liberals, including Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. See whose seat is also under threat.

Independent challengers are on track to knock off senior Liberals Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson, according to shock new polling that shows the federal government is more successfully repelling the teal wave in New South Wales.

The YouGov research, commissioned by News Corp, reveals the Treasurer’s primary vote has slumped to 38 per cent in the race against Climate 200-backed candidate Dr Monique Ryan.

Her primary is at 28 per cent, which YouGov concludes would give her an election-winning lead in Kooyong after preferences of 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

Mr Wilson has also fallen behind in his Victorian seat of Goldstein, with a primary vote of 40 per cent not enough to remain in front of teal challenger and former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel, who has a 52-48 per cent lead on a two-party preferred basis.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg visits the pre-polling booth in Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Independent candidate Monique Ryan behind. Picture: Nicki Connolly

Liberal MP Tim Wilson has fallen behind with support in his seat of Goldstein. Picture: Hollie Adams

But the Morrison government is holding firm in the NSW seats of North Sydney, Wentworth and Mackellar — three key targets of the independent movement fronted by female candidates campaigning on climate change, integrity and gender equality.

The numbers are based on a YouGov survey of 18,923 voters nationwide between April 14 and May 7.

Instead of polling individual seats, which is notoriously difficult, YouGov cross-referenced the survey data with information about the demographics of individual electorates to produce seat-by-seat results.

Allegra Spender may not get Wentworth. Picture: Getty

Liberal MP Dave Sharma is fighting to hold on to Wentworth. Picture: Damian Shaw

This put North Sydney challenger Kylea Tink’s primary vote at just 18 per cent, giving incumbent Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman a 53-47 per cent lead.

In Wentworth, YouGov has independent Allegra Spender on 26 per cent, but Liberal Dave Sharma’s primary vote of 48 per cent means he would safely hold on.

Mackellar MP Jason Falinski is ahead 53-47 per cent after preferences against independent Sophie Scamps, who is on a primary vote of 23 per cent.

Labor is in the box seat to win the critical South Australian electorate of Boothby, where the Climate 200-backed candidate Jo Dyer’s primary vote is 11 per cent.

After preferences, YouGov’s research gives the opposition a 53-47 per cent advantage to claim the seat from the government.

In Western Australia, Liberal MP Celia Hammond’s primary vote is at 41 per cent in the face of an independent challenge, but she retains a two-party preferred lead of 56 per cent to 44 per cent.

Sitting independent MPs Rebekha Sharkie, Helen Haines, Andrew Wilkie and Zali Steggall remain in the lead to hold their seats of Mayo in South Australia, Indi in Victoria, Clark in Tasmania and Warringah in NSW.

Dr Helen Haines MP for Indi. Picture: Gary Ramage

Warringah Independent MP Zali Steggall.

Teal challengers are also targeting the Liberal-held Victorian electorates of Casey, Flinders and Wannon, a safe seat in the state’s southwest held by Trade Minister Dan Tehan.

The government’s margin in both Casey – a seat Labor hopes to pick up in the wake of the retirement of Liberal veteran Tony Smith – and Flinders is 52-48 per cent over Labor.

The gap is the same in Page in NSW, where Nationals MP Kevin Hogan is clinging on with a primary vote of 37 per cent.

In the NSW seat of Hughes, where Craig Kelly quit the Liberal Party and is now running for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, Liberal candidate Jenny Ware has a primary vote of 42 per cent. This puts her in front by 56 per cent to 44 per cent over Labor.

YouGov Asia-Pacific head of polling Dr Campbell White said the new polling method had successfully predicted the results in recent UK elections.

“This methodology is well-tested, scientific and provides a more robust answer to the question of how national vote figures translate to the number of seats the parties will win than anything commissioned by any media outlet in Australian political history,” he told News Corp.

“These estimates provide ordinary Australians with more information about what is happening in the election than they would normally have.”

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