Election 2022: Labor set for convincing victory as 11 MPs in danger of losing seats

Labor is set for a convincing victory at the federal election, with exclusive nationwide polling revealing 11 big-name MPs are in danger of losing their seats and six electorates are too close to call. See the list

Labor is in the box seat for a convincing election victory, with a major nationwide poll predicting the opposition will claim nine seats off the government.

And while Scott Morrison is fighting a rearguard action to win back outer suburban Labor electorates, including in Melbourne and Sydney, the YouGov research suggests the Coalition will fail to take any seats from the opposition.

The polling, commissioned by News Corp, finds the most likely outcome on May 21 is Anthony Albanese winning 80 seats – more than the 76 required for an outright victory – with the Prime Minister stuck on 63 seats.

Bridget Archer, Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson are all in danger of losing their seats while Boothby - currently held by retiring MP Nicolle Flint - is also predicted to change hands.

The lower margin of error still gives the Labor leader the 76 seats he needs, while the upper margin of error hands him 85. The best-case scenario for the Coalition leaves them well short on 68 seats.

YouGov forecasts Victoria will be central to the government’s downfall, with the Coalition losing four seats: Chisholm and Higgins to Labor, as well as Kooyong and Goldstein to teal independents.

Labor is also expected to pick up Bass in Tasmania, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, and Reid and Robertson in New South Wales.

Retiring Liberal MP Nicolle Flint’s blue-ribbon Boothby seat in South Australia is also tipped to fall to Labor.

Of six seats deemed too close to call, with the two-party preferred vote locked at 50-50, five more are held by the Coalition.

These are Bennelong and Lindsay in NSW, Longman and Ryan in Queensland, and Sturt in South Australia. The Labor-held Victorian seat of Corangamite is also all tied up.

Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg (centre) is in the fight of his life against teal independent Monique Ryan. Photo: Nicki Connolly

The numbers are based on a YouGov survey of 18,923 voters nationwide between April 14 and May 7, prior to the final fortnight of the campaign.

Instead of producing specific poll numbers for each seat, which is notoriously difficult, YouGov cross-referenced the survey data with information about the demographics of individual electorates to produce seat-by-seat results.

YouGov Asia-Pacific head of polling Dr Campbell White said it provided “a more robust answer to the question of how national vote figures translate to the number of seats the parties will win than anything commissioned by any media outlet in Australian political history”.

In Victoria, Labor is holding safe leads in the urban fringe seats of Dunkley and McEwen of 54-46 per cent and 55-45 per cent respectively. This mirrors internal opposition research, despite a co-ordinated Liberal effort in those electorates.

The government is expected to hold Nicholls, the regional seat covering Shepparton, with independent challenger Rob Priestly’s primary vote on 19 per cent.

Independent member for Clark Andrew Wilkie out putting up his election campaign posters in Hobart. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

In Gilmore, the NSW seat considered the most likely for Labor to lose, the two major parties are tied on a primary vote of 39 per cent. YouGov expects this would give the opposition a 53-47 per cent advantage to hold on to the electorate.

Labor is also predicted to retain Hunter, with its primary on 42 per cent and the Coalition lagging behind on 16 per cent, while 22 per cent of voters back Pauline Hanson’s One Nation or Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

The Palmer vote is only tipped to hit 10 per cent in one electorate – Calwell in Melbourne’s north – while One Nation has stronger support, particularly in Queensland.

As News Corp revealed on Wednesday, deputy Liberal leader Josh Frydenberg is on track to lose Kooyong to independent challenger Dr Monique Ryan.

Asked about the poll, the Treasurer conceded he was “the underdog” in the fight, but said he was confident “quiet Australians” and “Howard battlers” would help him over the line.

Senior Liberal sources said they believed his primary vote was stronger than the 38 per cent identified by YouGov.

“At the last election the polls pointed to a Coalition loss, and as we know history recorded a very different result,” Mr Frydenberg said.

According to YouGov, the teal wave is expected to fall short in other target seats in Sydney.

Sitting crossbench MPs Helen Haines, Rebekha Sharkie, Andrew Wilkie, Bob Katter, Zali Steggall and Adam Bandt are all forecast to remain in parliament.

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