Off and Racing: Brad Davidson’s extended preview & tips for the Rosehill Gardens program

Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for the Rosehill Gardens meeting. BEST BETS, TAB MARKET MOVERS

Ljungberg looms as the value contender for the Rosehill Gardens card and arrives back on the scene with some decent trial form, according to leading form analyst Brad Davidson.

Ljungberg won against the bias first-up last prep and Davidson believes he can repeat again.

Race 1: 11.25AM SOUTHERN CROSS TURF HANDICAP (1100M)

Overview: Exceedance made a big impression at Wyong on debut and the figures were there to back it up. His last 600m was eight lengths above the benchmark for that class of race and he clocked the quickest last 200m split of the day in the process. Sun Patch is an interesting runner and he won an average maiden and then was outclassed in Group company but took on the Golden Slipper runner-up and Sires winner, Pago Pago Stakes winner and Champagne Stakes winner in that race. This is a fair drop back in grade! Rotator trialled up well and should park behind the speed and go close, while Splintex and Spaceboy come through a strong maiden on the Kensington track last time out where they ran quicker time than the benchmark race on the day off similar early sections.

BETTING STRATEGY: Exceedance on top, Sun Patch could be overs off that very strong race last start? Is he ready fresh off one soft trial though?

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 5 — Exceedance $6-$3.30 ($350 @ $6, $300 @ $5.50, $300 @ $4.40, $400 @ $3.90, $300 @ $3.30)

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Race 2: 12PM EVERGREEN TURF TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400M)

Overview: Our Echo looks the horse to beat and he comes off proper Saturday and Listed form in Queensland where he has been far from disgraced. The race he comes through last start was about seven lengths quicker than the benchmark 80 on the day. He gets the blinkers on here. There are two good roughies here in the shape of Vigorish and Onemore Sapphire. There is a stack of speed here and I think both of them can flash late. This looks a target for Vigorish third up out to his favourite trip, while Onemore Sapphire will just keep grinding away and can place at big odds. Rest Of The World looks next best.

BETTING STRATEGY: Vigorish and Onemore Sapphire both to place.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 2 — Our Echo $4.60-$3.10 ($500 @ $3.90, $400 @ $3.50)

Race 3: 12.35PM MY MATE MULVEY’S SPRINT (1200M)

Overview: Most of these come through the same race at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago and there wasn’t a lot between them that day. That makes me look for another form line and Ljungberg could be the one. He won against the bias first-up last prep (needed to be on the rail that night at Canterbury) and then bolted in second-up and then bumped into Vegadaze. His trials have been good and he is at a backable price too. Call Me Royal should appreciate the step up to 1200m and should find the front, while River Bird also runs on late.

BETTING STRATEGY: Ljungberg to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1 — Ljungberg $5.50-$6-$5 ($600 @ $6, $500 @ $6, $500 @ $5.50, $300 @ $5)

5 — Call Me Royal $5.50-$4 ($1,500 @ $5.50, $375 @ $4.60, $500 @ $4.20)

Deductions: Oxford Tycoon 9cWin 9c Place

Poetic Charmer gets in reasonably light and looks a strong contender.

Race 4: 1.10PM TURF DRAIN AUSTRALIA HANDICAP (1200M)

Overview: I think Poetic Charmer can land outside Oxford Tycoon here and they can control this from the front. I’ve liked Poetic Charmer’s trials without the blinkers on and they go on race day. He gets in light here and should be able to fan a few off the fence in the straight and prove hard to catch. Oxford Tycoon has been well backed in early markets and he will be hard to run down. Expect him to be positive early and he will improve off his first run in some time. Dracarys gets home from the back if they can run on as they should be able to.

BETTING STRATEGY: Poetic Charmer to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

RACE 5: 1.50PM DAD & DAVE’S TURF HANDICAP (1400M)

Overview: Hard to go past Reelem In Ruby and she looks to park just behind the speed and only just missed in a photo last start. I think the value in the race is Pumpkin Pie. She comes through a Group 3 race last time out where she was good late in a race run at a moderate tempo. The $3 a place looks fair enough for her and she just needs luck from the sticky draw. Nicci’s Gold chased home Seasons fresh last prep and just resumes at 1400m here (two trials v one trial last prep) instead of 1200m last campaign. Toryjoy is her own worst enemy (overraces) but looks next best.

BETTING STRATEGY: Reelem In Ruby well found but the $3 a place about Pumpkin Pie looks the bet.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 9 — Reelem In Ruby $2.50-$2.40 ($900 @ $2.50, $300 @ $2.50, $1,000 @ $2.40, $500 @ $2.40)

RACE 6: 2.30PM HI QUALITY TURF HANDICAP (1300M)

Overview: Echo Jet went back from the wide draw last start and I thought he ran on pretty well considering that’s not his go. Expect him to be positive from the low draw with the blinkers on and he can give them something to catch. Kapajack is the horse to beat but I can’t see any value from that wide draw at $2.30. The other knocks are he is yet to tick the 1300m box and his best run last prep was first-up. Nicochet can run on late and his run fresh last prep was good in a race that produced five subsequent winners. Dynamited gets the blinkers on and can rush late, while Oriental Runner should run his usual honest race from up on speed.

BETTING STRATEGY: Leaning to Echo Jet over Reelem In Ruby simply from a price perspective.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

Will history repeat? Destiny's Kiss wins last year’s edition of the McKell Cup.

RACE 7: 3.10PM W.J. McKELL CUP (2400M)

Overview: One of the most open races of the day this with several of these getting to 2400m for the first time. I would not be surprised if Girl Tuesday, Abdon, Black On Gold, Our Big Mike, High Opinion or Free Fly Too wins this. You could even throw in High Bridge in the quaddie at $21 and Destiny’s Kiss as well. Girl Tuesday is a deserved favourite off her last run but she is on trial at the trip and this is a very tough race.

BETTING STRATEGY: Go wide in this leg of the quaddie!

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 6 — Girl Tuesday $4.80-$4 ($500 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.20)

RACE 8: 3.50PM SYDNEY CRICKET GROUND HANDICAP (1500M)

Overview: Looks a nice race for Strome to potentially go back to back and she was good when defeating Reelem In Ruby last start. She should park up midfield and she will be strong late (she has won twice at the mile so 1500m should be fine). She does rise from a fillies and mares benchmark 78 to a benchmark 88 against the boys though but drops in weight. Asterius is likeable but I think he is a horse that races best fresh. He wasn’t far away second up last prep though and his first couple of runs of the prep are normally his best before he gets a bit dour. Dagny was good first-up and just has to reproduce to run well again, while Goldstream (comes out of a Listed race last start but a weak form race) and Island Missile look next best.

BETTING STRATEGY: Small play Strome.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 9 — Hogmanay $15 unchanged ($1,000 e/w @ $15/$4.80)

RACE 9: 4.30PM LIVING TURF HANDICAP (1100M)

Overview: This looks tailor made for Spiritual Pursuit, who is beating the handicapper here with just 54kg on her back. She should roll to the front and she clearly has the best form coming into this when splitting Baller (5th in a G1 two starts later) and subsequent winner Prophet’s Thumb last start. She has had a small break and two nice trials coming in. I think Drachenfels is a good place chance here and he will be running on late, while Oneness and Wagner (luckless last start) look best of the rest.

BETTING STRATEGY: Spiritual Pursuit to win and I could have something on Drachenfels to place as well.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1 — Drachenfels $15-$11 ($500 e/w @ $13/$3.90, $200 @ $13, $200 e/w @ $13/$4)