Early Oil: Best bets, analysis for Caulfield, race times and betting

Smart mare Silent Roar with three wins at her pet distance of 1600m should give a great sight for punters at Caulfield, according to chief form analyst Michael Manley. BEST BETS, ANALYSIS

Promising sprinter William Thomas, the exciting Begood Toya Mother and smart filly Propelle look the quality runners on a tricky nine-race program at Caulfield.

But Manley still prefers Silent Roar ahead of that talented trio as his best bet for the card.

With her light weight, Manley says the Team Hawkes-prepared four-year-old mare is sure to go close.

The meeting will be run in slow conditions with showers easing and the rail out 14m for the entire circuit.

BEST BET

SILENT ROAR (Race 4, No. 12)

VALUE BET

RACING PARADISE (Race 2, No. 7)

EARLY QUADDIE

1,6,7,8/1,3,4,7,9/2,3,13/1,3,8

$100 flexi for 55.55 per cent

BIG 6

2,3,13/1,3,8/3,5,7,9/3/1,2,4,8/3,4,9,12

$100 flexi for 17.36 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 3,5,7,9

Race 7: 3

Race 8: 1,2,3,4,7,8,9,10

Race 9: 1,2,3,4,8,9,11,12

$100 flexi for 39.06 per cent

WEEKEND BEST BETS: WHO TO BACK AT THE TRACK

QUINNY’S EARLY CALL: WHERE THE WINNERS ARE

RACE 1: 11.40AM WHISKY WINE & FIRE HANDICAP (1200M)

ANTHONY Freedman is having a cracking year with his two-year-olds and he’s likely to add another to his tally in WILMOT PASS (4) who bolted in on a slow track at Moe at his debut where he settled second then sprinted clear to win. He recorded the fastest last 200m for the day. BRAZEN BRANDO (6) finished mid-field in the Blue Diamond Preview and Prelude and each time ran home well after the missing the start. Blinkers go on for the first time. CAN’T BE DONE (2) from the in-form Danny O’Brien stable also was impressive winning his debut at Sale. THE ASTROLOGIST (3) was slow to begin but still won impressively at Cranbourne. IGNITING’s (5) two runs have been sound. CALL ME SHAMUS (7) resumes and he showed ability when third at his debut at Pakenham in January.

SUGGESTED BET: WILMOT PASS THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS.

2 — Can’t Be Done $8-$9.50 ($500 x $300 e/w @ $9.50/$3, $1,906 x $500 e/w @ $9.50/$3,

$300 e/w @ $9.50/$3)

RACE 2: 12.15PM LADBROKES BACK YOURSELF HANDICAP (2000M)

RACING PARADISE (7) is a promising young stayer who is getting better with racing. He broke his maiden status at Kyneton two starts ago over 1850m on a soft track before swooping home from last for easy win in a BM58 at Ballarat Synthetic where he recorded the second fastest last 200m for the day. Many of his rivals have had busy campaigns. The SA Derby was a nightmare for STAR MISSILE (1) who over-raced and then may not have run the distance out. His previous form reads well for this. TITAN BLINDERS (6) tried hard when he finished third behind Fidelia when he tried to lead throughout over 1600m last week. SKYWAY STAR (8) was unlucky when third in the SA Oaks. IGNITER (2) is racing well but has to contend with a wide draw as does BILL THE BEE (10.

SUGGESTED BET: RACING PARADISE EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS. 2 — Igniter $7.50-$7-$7.50 ($385 @ $7.50, $1,500 e/w @ $7/$2.50)

RACE 3: 12.50PM GRUNT STANDING @ YULONG HANDICAP (1440M)

BIANCONI MAGIC (4) was unlucky last start when trying to make it four wins in a row at Pakenham Synthetic as he was held up for a run when third behind Vongole. He’ll enjoy being drawn out in barrier 8 and he’s a wet track winner. ASGARD MASSIF (7) controlled the tempo when he led throughout to win comfortably over 1400m at Sandown Hillside last start. From Barrier One and with only 51kgs after the three kilos claim of Teo Nugent he’ll give a great sight. Kiwi HYPNOS (1) is giving away six to nine kilos to all of his rivals but he’s finished second in the Group 1 Levin Classic to Madison County which is outstanding form. SYMPHONETTE (3) is a talented filly who finished third last summer at Flemington over 1400m to O’Tauto in a race where BLINDER (5) finished second.

SUGGESTED BET: BIANCONI MAGIC EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS.

9 — Ligulate $4.80-$5-$3.70 ($200 x $150 e/w @ $5/$2.10, $300 @ $4.80, $300 @ $3.80)

Silent Roar has Michael Manley’s seal of approval.

RACE 4: 1.25PM LONG FINE PLATE (1600M)

SILENT ROAR (12) returns to her pet distance of 1600m after finding 1800m a bit too far at her last two starts. She’s had four starts at 1600m for three wins and a close-up fifth in a Group 3 race. She’ll get a lovely on speed run from barrier four. Her last start third at Caulfield behind Remember The Name was a sound effort. MR RECKLESS (2) impressed at his Australian debut in March when he finished second to Promotheus at Flemington. Former Japanese bred galloper who raced in France, BAG RAIDER (3) was impressive winning his Australian debut at Bendigo. SAM SLICK (7) has good soft track form and ran on in good style to win at Sandown Hillside last start. BOXACHOCOLATES (6) also likes it wet and he showed a return to form when second to Begood Toya Mother last start at Flemington.

SUGGESTED BET: SILENT ROAR THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS. 2 — Mr Reckless $6-$4 ($250 x $100 e/w @ $4.40/$1.75, $300 @ $4.20)

RACE 5: 2.05PM MRC MEMBERSHIP RENEWAL HANDICAP (1100M)

WILLIAM THOMAS (8) is a promising sprinter who likes this track. He’s had two runs this time in coming back from 47 weeks off for a fourth and then a win at Caulfield. He takes on open company for the first time but he drops from 59kgs to 54kgs. He should be ready to peak at his third run back. JUNGLE EDGE (1) was run down by the in-form Order Of Command over 1200m at this track last start. Drop back 100m to 1100m will suit him better. He’ll again carry 58kgs. BANDIPUR (3) has been racing in great fashion and he defeated Order Of Command two starts ago at Flemington. He’s also won twice over this distance and will be ridden by Craig Williams. MALIBU STYLE (2) finished second in the Wangoom before failing in the Goodwood. He’s good enough to be in the finish. ENIGMAN (6) will only carry 51kgs and won this track and distance in January. SAINT VALOREM (9) can pull out a run while fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: WILLIAM THOMAS THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS. 8 — William Thomas $4.20-$3.60 ($400 @ $4.20, $500 @ $, $680 @ $3.70)

Propelle just needs some luck from her draw to figure in finish.

RACE 6: 2.45PM QMS MEDIA HANDICAP (1100M)

PROPELLE (3) just failed to grab BAM’S ON FIRE (7) this track and distance last start when she carried 60kgs. She drops to 55.5kgs and will meet that filly four kilos better. GRACEFUL STORM (5) won at huge odds this track and distance two starts ago and was then luckless in that same race at her last start as she was held up for most of the straight when she finished ninth. The former Perth filly Bam’s On Fire is flying for the Maher/Eustace stable. FEARED EYES (9) impressed in her two starts last spring for a win at Ballarat and then a second at Flemington. THINE IS THE POWER (6) is racing consistently. DU WELL (8), TELL ME (2) and ALGADON MISS (4) also have claims.

SUGGESTED BET: PROPELLE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS. 3 — Propelle $3.10 ($500 @ $3.10 TWICE, $300 @ $2.90)

4 — Algadon Miss $8-$5.50 ($700 @ $7, $600 x $400 e/w @ $6.50/$2.10, $700 x $500 e/w @ $6/$2.10, $300 @ $5.50); Deductions. Madam Rouge 11c Win 10c Place

Begood Toya Mother should continue his winning ways.

RACE 7: 3.25PM LADBROKES ODDS BOOST HANDICAP (1440M)

BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (3) is an exciting prospect. Found trouble early in the race, looked in an awkward spot but still managed to win when he made it four on end last start at Flemington. He’s drawn out but he’s going to be better suited by that. At his last start he defeated ARANCINI (6) and he’ll meet him five kilos better. ELITE DRAKE (8) will push forward and he held on well when third behind Widgee Turf over 1600m at this track last start. He drops six kilos on that run. DANON ROMAN (4) has been disappointing. Might be better off at 1400m than 1600m. He’s been gelded since his last run.

SUGGESTED BET: BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS. 3 — Begood Toya Mother $1.70 unchanged ($2,000 @ $1.70, $699 @ $1.70, $500 @ $1.70, $320 @ $1.70, $300 @ $1.70 TWICE)

7 — Wazzenme $19-$17

RACE 8: 4.05PM WHISKY WINE & FIRE VOLVO CARS BRIGHTON HANDICAP (1200M)

Lightly raced PETRELLE (8) looks well placed to win her first city race. She resumed from a spell with a narrow win at Geelong before finishing fifth at Group 3 level behind subsequent Goodwood winner Despatch at Morphettville at her last start. She showed speed that day and only tired out of it in the last100m. GREY SHADOW (1) had her chances ruined in the Wangoom when she was checked after the start. She’s won three from five at Caulfield. SMART COUPE (2) chased home two smart mares in Moonlover and Miss Leonidas when first-up at Flemington. She handles the soft. Consistent MISS VIXEN (4) was just beaten by Iconoclasm two starts ago this track and distance before a second at Group 3 level in Adelaide last start. CATH’S VILLAGE (9), ALL ABOUT NICCI (3) and QUEEN ANNABEL (7) all have claims.

SUGGESTED BET: PETRELLE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS. No bets or movements of note

RACE 9: 4.40PM CATANACH’S JEWELLERS HANDICAP (2000M)

PACODALI (3) loomed to win last start at Flemington but tired on his run when close-up fifth to Mantastic. He should now be ready at his fourth run back from a spell. Also he handles the wet. LIVE AND FREE (9) has been racing well in Sydney. He gets back and should charge home. MORTON’S FORK (4) finished third behind Mantastic and should get a good run from Barrier 2 and has the services of Craig Williams. Query runner is former German stayer BEAU BALMAIN (12) who showed a lot of talent as a three-year-old in his homeland. HOME BY MIDNIGHT (2) will be suited by the wet track.

SUGGESTED BET: PACODALI THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS. No bets or movements of note