Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the big races at Rosehill and Caulfield on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the big races at Rosehill and Caulfield on Saturday.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

SPORTSMAN PREVIEW: ROSEHILL

INSIDE MAIL: BIG BETS, QUADDIES FOR ROSEHILL

BRAD DAVIDSON & SHAYNE O’CASS PREVIEW ROSEHILL ON SATURDAY

ROSEHILL GARDENS

R5: ON POINT LOCATING HCP (1100m)

Thomas: In an open race, I thought Zoumagic had a chance at odds. She is racing well, handles soft-heavy tracks and gets in well with Andrew Adkins’s 3kg claim. I think she is good value around $8. Allez Chival is racing very well but finding it hard to win. This might be her chance as she is back to 1100m and is also well weighed after the claim. Shahrazad ran well last week against some promising sprinters, is back in fillies and mares grade here and is another effective in these track conditions. Alucinari is a talented mare with a good fresh record but is a query on a wet track.

Dufficy: I rate Allez Chival an each-way special. The key to her chances is she is back to her pet distance of 1100m as she just struggles to run out a strong 1200m. The rain-affected track plays into her “hands” as she is very fit. I like her a lot. I’m wary of Shahrazad as she ran well last week after a month between runs and 1100m also suits her. Alucinari is very classy but it will be hard for her first-up on a slow-heavy track. Rose Of Man ran very well last week but the wet track is against her.

R6: RACING MATES HCP (1200m)

Thomas: His Majesty might have got all the favours off a torrid upfront tempo when resuming over 1100m last week but the way he burst through late to win was indicative of a horse that has returned in great order. I know he has to jump up to 61.5kg but with the likelihood of a genuine early speed he gets the chance to run over the top of them again. Snoopy had zero luck when resuming, finishing the closest fourth to His Majesty. Snoopy is drawn to get the gun run and is a big threat. Encostanati is a brave frontrunner and Sir Bacchus goes well fresh.

Dufficy: I think he is a good horse, Sir Bacchus. He is only relatively lightly raced and is two from two at this track and distance. He has brilliant fresh form and won over the Rosehill 1200m when resuming last preparation. I have to go his way. His Majesty is the danger but he has to go up 5.5kg on his first-up win. Handfast went from strength to strength last time in and he does have good fresh form, too. Encostanati is back in distance which suits, he is a fit horse racing well and will give plenty of cheek.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sir Bacchus $3.50-$3.20 ($500 @ $3.50, $400 @ $3.50, $1,600 @ $3.20)

R7: RUN TO THE ROSE (1200m)

Thomas: A great race, Ronnie, but I’m leaning to Star Turn on the score of race fitness and the dominance of his first-up win. Star Turn relaxed well outside the leader (Tango Rain) in the San Domenico Stakes then toyed with his rivals as he sprinted clear to win with authority two weeks ago. He is two from two on soft tracks so I’m banking on his ability to handle heavy conditions, too. El Divino looked very impressive galloping between races last week and there is a very good vibe about him. Mediterranean is race fit while the Godolphin trio of Impending, Astern and Telperion must be respected.

Dufficy: I think we have a great bunch of three-year-olds this season. Most of these are resuming so they are up against it on a heavy track but I was taken by El Divino’s gallop last week. He is a big, brute of a thing and he has Hugh Bowman’s seal of approval. Star Turn was explosive in the San Domenico Stakes but he has to tick the 1200m box as he has run unplaced at his two previous attempts at this trip. However, I concede he looks a different racehorse this preparation. Mediterranean gets all of the advantages after recent runs on wet tracks and he is a big chance. Astern and Impending look promising horses but I have to lean to El Divino.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Star Turn $3.80-$4-$3.80-$3.60 ($1,000 @ $3.80 TWICE, $500 e/w @ $4/$1.61, $3,000 @ $3.80), Mediterranean $5-$4.80-$5 ($300 @ $5, $2,000 @ $5.50, $1,000 @ $5), Impending $6-$4.60 ($1,500 @ $6, $1,000 @ $5 TWICE), El Divino $8-$5.50-$5 ($300 @ $8, $600 @ $7, $600 @ $5.50, $400 @ $5.50, $1,000 @ $5)

EL DIVINO HAS BIG HORSESHOES TO FILL

STAR TURN OUT TO STEAL THE SHOW

R8: PREMIER’S CUP (1900m)

Thomas: I was taken by Singing’s Australian debut when run down late by Song And Laughter at Canterbury last month. This was Singing’s first race in nearly a year and he will derive a lot of benefit from that run. Singing drops 4kg here and will prove hard to beat. Allergic won the Prelude well last start and has to rate as the hardest to beat. He goes well at Rosehill, enjoys rain-affected tracks and is well suited over this distance. Magic Hurricane is fitter and Loophole never runs a bad race.

Dufficy: I’m with you, Ray, I also like Singing. I know he is up in class and has had five weeks between runs but his Canterbury run was eye-catching. He will only improve off that and should go close. Allergic eased in betting last start but still won, which suggests to me he needed that run. He is drawn perfectly and maps to get the right run. I’m expecting dramatic improvement from Ruling Dynasty now he is up in distance and he can spring an upset.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Allergic $3.60-$3 ($1,400 @ $3.60, $3,600 @ $3.20), Magic Hurricane $13-$8.50-$11 ($600 e/w @ $13/$3.66, $650 e/w @ $10/$3), Singing $4.60-$4.20-$4 ($1,500 @ $4.20, $1,400 @ $4.20)

Boo Bailey’s cartoon tip for Rosehill.

R9: TAB REWARDS HCP (1350m)

Thomas: Chetwood and Cannyescent were resuming when they ran impressive to quinella a Canterbury mid-weeker earlier this month. They are both talented sprinters and it would be no surprise if they run 1-2 again. Coolcraft powered to the line to win well last start and he will be very competitive. We’re Sure also has claims in a good sprint race.

Dufficy: I’m a Chetwood fan, I think he is a good horse. He needs to settle better than he did at Canterbury but I’m hoping that run has knocked the edge off him. Cannyescent will be all the rage as he meets Chetwood 4kg better. However, Cannyescent has to contend with a wide barrier, he is a backmarker so he needs luck in running and for the track to play his way. Coolcraft is very underrated and both his runs after a long spell have been very good.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Chetwood $4.60-$4.20 ($2,000 @ $4.40), We’re Sure $7-$6-$5.50 ($200 @ $7, $600 @ $6)

CAULFIELD

R7: MEMSIE STAKES (1400m)

Thomas: The betting suggests the Darren Weir stable has a mortgage on this race with Black Herat Bart the favourite ahead of Mahuta and Palentino. I like Mahuta here. I feel he has had the best preparation for the Memsie and he is drawn to get the perfect run, tucked in behind the hot speed set by Charmed Harmony and Lord Of The Sky. Mahuta is third-up and primed for this race. I will be keeping a close watch on Tally. I rate this Godolphin horse very highly and expect he will be charging home. Black Heart Bart and Sofia Rosa are all class and will be very hard to beat.

Dufficy: A terrific race. I can’t believe the ‘‘slows” on Black Heart Bart. I feel he is a standout here. I love backing horses coming out of the Brisbane winter carnival early in the season as they have residual fitness on their side. Black Heart Bart is an outstanding sprinter and I rate him a special in the Memsie. Palentino will be improved and Mahuta is a big tip around town. Sofia Rosa is the danger at odds as she has very good fresh form.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Black Heart Bart $2.70-$3.20- $2.60 ($500 @ $3.20, $500 @ $3, $350 @ $2.90, $380 @ $2.70), Mahuta $6.50-$7- $5.50-$6.50 ($1,000 @ $7, $1,250 e/w @ $6/$2.17, $300 @ $5.50), Prince Of Penzance $41-$35- $26-$31 ($900 @ $41, $900 @ $35)

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET

Caulfield

Race 7, No. 2: BLACK HEART BART

OTHER BETS

Rosehill Gardens

Race 5, No. 4: ALLEZ CHIVAL

Race 8, No. 6: SINGING

SATURDAY EXTRA

RAY THOMAS’S BEST BETS

BEAUMONT (NEWCASTLE)

BEST BET: THE REVEREND DEMON (Race 2, No. 7)

The Reverend Demon showed ability as a two-year-old with a debut placing at Rosehill before his competitive effort in the Group 2 Pago Pago Stakes when sixth to Souchez. He was spelled after another minor placing behind Angharad at Gosford. Resumes today, drawn ideally and is a standout selection.

NEXT BEST: GHOSTLY (Race 3, No. 5)

Ghostly, beautifully bred and named by super sire Lonhro out of the stakeswinning mare Seances, is a full brother to top sprinter Sessions, and it seems he has inherited plenty of the family’s ability. Ghostly has had three trials for three seconds including a recent hitout chasing home Spirit And Fire, a subsequent Canterbury winner on debut. Although awkwardly drawn, Ghostly only needs even luck to win.

THE EXOTICS: BOX TRIFECTA — Race 4, nos: 1, 2, 3, 6

PORT MACQUARIE

BEST BET: GRADUATE (Race 1, No. 3)

Graduate has been placed twice in his last three outings, leading for home at Coffs Harbour before beating all but Galiano then at his most recent start, running on from midfield for third to Jester Dane at Lismore. Racing well and his form is clearly superior to his rivals today. Ready to win.

NEXT BEST: NOT DOUBTFUL (Race 5, No. 2)

Not Doubtful impressed with good seconds at Tuncurry and Port Macquarie then couldn’t get into the race when well beaten behind Bonne Cheval in heavy conditions at Coffs Harbour. Handy galloper who is usually competitive in this grade of race. Worth another chance.