KFC SuperCoach NRL: The mid-range players you need to start 2021
You’ve found your cheapies and locked in your guns, now you need to add a few mid-rangers. We’ve got you covered in our deep dive here.
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At their best, a mid-ranger is a thing of KFC SuperCoach NRL beauty, pumping out ‘keeper’ level scoring for a significant discount.
At their worst you have wasted a chunk of your starting salary when you could have bought similar output from a true cheapie - and missed out on the price increase that said cheapie will enjoy.
We’ve crunched the numbers on the leading contenders in the $300K-$550K price bracket to identify those you want to buy and those you’ll want to pass on.
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Just one thing to note before we get into the players and it’s for those of you who love a stat and who can tolerate Rob Sutherland’s love of a table. If you follow THIS LINK you can read Rob’s analysis of how mid-rangers performed versus guns in 2017-2019 (the theory should hold true and we’ll run 2020 numbers if we get a chance). In short it argues the case for mid-rangers but in typical Sutherland style it hedges plenty of bets. One for the committed, but if you have time it’s worth a read (so says Rob).
HOOKER
Victor Radley HOK/2RF ($445,500)
Currently more than 6% of players have Victor ‘The Inflictor’* Radley in their team and I can only guess they are fellow tricolours fans hoping for a speedy return to 60+ minutes at lock. Over 2019-20 when Radley played 60+ minutes at 13 he averaged 65PPG thanks to a mixture of solid base and underrated passing game which sees Radley rack up attacking stats in bunches. The worry, of course, is that Radley is coming into the season after spending much of 2020 in the Roosters’ rehab group due to tearing his ACL in round seven last year. Critical to the team structure, the Roosters have no reason to rush Radley back and I expect a minutes limitation early in 2021.
Verdict: PASS - Mercurial at best, Radley’s expected slow start has him on my no-go list to start the season.
* Sorry, as a Roosters fan I am required to add this to my first reference of Radley in any article.
Josh Hodgson HOK ($374,000)
The Canberra co-captain is an 80-minute player more than capable of pumping out a solid 55PPG. Therefore, you’d be forgiven for thinking Hodgson is priced at a good $100K discount to ability. However, Hodgson is coming back from yet another knee injury AND while he was in the rehab group in 2020 young Tom Starling was superb for the Raiders.
Verdict: PASS - I expect Canberra coach Ricky Stuart to play Starling off the bench so Hodgson’s days of 80 minutes are over and then there’s the injury worries too.
Jayden Brailey HOK ($356,600)
The first of the Newcastle players to fall foul of the number nine curse at the Knights in 2020, Brailey lasted just two games last year before succumbing to an ACL injury. After a lengthy stint with the rehab squad, Brailey is expected to be fit and ready to go for the opening round of 2021. The injury sees him priced at a tick over a 40PPG average and Brailey is better than that so I think he represents value. However, I’m not sure if the defensive workhorse has the attacking game to represent sufficient value to pick him over one of the far cheaper Tigers duo of Liddle/Simpkin.
Verdict: PASS - While I think Brailey can average around 45, possibly 45-50 in 2021 I don’t think there is enough upside to justify the spend over a true cheapie.
Brandon Smith HOK/2RF ($489,600)
The injuries to Harry Grant and Dale Finucane have meant Brandon Smith has gone from a bench utility to a player who will likely start the first five to six rounds, and his ownership has skyrocketed to almost 14%. When starting last year, Brandon saw his average jump from 49.6 when coming off the bench, to an impressive 59. However there is some risk here, especially after the early stages of the season when players return from injury.
Verdict: PASS - While he could be in line for some big minutes to start the year and some early cash rises, once Harry Grant returns from injury it’s really hard to predict what his role will be and how many minutes he gets.
Lachlan Lam 5/8 & HOK ($310,100)
Lam has won the starting five-eith role for the Roosters, leaving Sam Walker out of the team for now, and now he finds himself as the 6th most popular player at hooker. However Lam didn’t exactly look super impressive when he started last year, averaging just 33 when starting, and 35.8 when coming off the bench. From what we’ve seen Luke Keary has been the much more dominant role, with Lam taking more of a back seat really hurting his SuperCoach output.
Verdict: PASS - He may have won the starting role, but who knows how long he keeps it? KFC SuperCoaches may be better off getting a genuine hooker at the position.
FRONT ROW
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui FRF/2RF ($504,900)
Big Tino is one of the big name recruits by the Gold Coast Titans and we expect him to be given all the game time he can handle. And the young enforcer can handle plenty as he showed in making the jump from very limited minutes in 2019 (23MPG at 1.04PPM) to a mid-major role in 2020 (46MPG at 1.23PPM). In the eight games Fa’asuamaleaui played 45+ minutes in the middle in 2020, he averaged 77PPG. His DPP (dual-position eligibility) is an added bonus too.
Verdict: BUY - Quite simply Tino looks like he could be the mid-ranger of the year, given he seems extremely capable of producing GUN level scores at a mid-ranger price. Unsurprisingly he is currently the third most popular player in the game, and could even be higher before the season starts.
Christian Welch FRF ($453,500)
Injury delayed Welch’s start to the 2020 season and saw him play restricted minutes when he did return. But from round nine to round 20 Welch played 10 games (missing two due to a COVID quarantine breach) averaging 59.6PPG in 51.4MPG and in the final five games of that stretch he averaged 67.6PPG in 55.2MPG. Plus the injury to Dale Finucane could see him start the season at lock, or at the very least see more minutes in the early rounds.
Verdict:BUY - Shown he is capable of producing very close to keeper numbers for a mid-ranger price and that’s the sort of value we’re looking for here.
Luke Thompson FRF/2RF ($451,800)
Englishman Thompson came into the NRL somewhat underdone in 2020 playing his first game in round nine after to a stint in quarantine and I think it’s fair to place an asterisk alongside his season figures. The Bulldogs have punted veteran prop Aiden Tolman (and his 61MPG) in the off-season and I expect Thompson to pick up the bulk of those minutes in a full-time shift to the front row after pinch-hitting at lock to cover for an injured Adam Elliott. One knock, and it’s a big one is that Thompson will not play to start the season after copped a four-week ban for eye gouging James Tamou in round 20. Could make a handy replacement when the inevitable early injuries strike though.
Verdict:WATCH - would have been a buy but you cannot carry a non-player at this price over the early rounds.
Ben Murdoch-Masila FRF/2RF ($330,000)
One of the more intriguing options this year, BMM heads to the Warriors after a stint in the UK Super League. A genuine enforcer on the field, the question is whether he represents value in SC? The price, just above cheapie level, is right and the DPP is handy too. Built like a middle but agile enough to play an edge the word out of the Warriors is that Murdoch-Masila is training on the edge and will be deployed there. If BMM can nab a starting edge spot (which would see Tohu Harris start at 13 I presume) then he has genuine value as a mid-ranger with plenty of attacking upside.
Verdict: WATCH - BMM’s value is okay but not great if playing a bench role through the middle but should he start either as a middle or edge then he is a strong buy.
James Fisher-Harris FRF/2RF ($522,200)
While he was dominant in 2019, averaging 77 minutes and 66PPG, his gametime plummeted in 2020 to just 58 minutes and his average followed the same downward trend to 58. As a result his price has plummeted and he finds himself as more of a mid-ranger with gun level upside. While he wasn’t on the field as much in 2020, the loss of forwards James Tamou and Zane Tetavano means there is more time in the middle up for grabs, and we could see his minutes improve in 2021.
Verdict: WATCH - It’s probably not worth starting with JFH at this price given his inconsistency in 2020, but if his minutes do improve in the early rounds he could be a solid trade-in target.
Matthew Lodge FRF ($299,000)
While just short of the $300k mid-ranger tag, Lodge still deserves a mention given his high ownership and awkward borderline-cheapie price. With Payne Haas suspended and an injury cloud over Thomas Flegler, we could see Matthew Lodge start for the Broncos in the early rounds and potentially make some quick cash. While he was awful in 2020 under the new rule changes, he was also playing injured so we should cut him some slack. You only have to look back to 2019 to see he was one of the best FRF’s in KFC SuperCoach, averaging 63.
Verdict: BUY - As Rob Sutherland points out in his team reveal, Lodge is priced at an average of around 34PPG - an average he should have little trouble exceeding by 10+PPG.
SECOND ROW
Jai Arrow 2RF ($474,900)
Despite his minutes per game staying reasonably steady from 2018 to 2020 (55MPG, 57MPG and 54MPG), Arrow’s scoring output declined (64PPG, 62PPG and 54PPG). The most obvious area of concern has been his running game with Arrow averaging better than 15 hit-ups a game in 2018 but just 12 hit-ups per game in 2020 – a 20% decline. Now at the Rabbitohs, and available for $100K less than his 2020 starting price, Arrow profiles as a real value selection with one proviso – his body. From 2018-20 in those games Arrow played between 45-55 minutes he averaged just 50.3PPG, where he played 55-65MPG Arrow averaged 71.5PPG. That’s all very positive and it is easy to see why Arrow was a popular mid-range buy when the SuperCoach season began. However, then the new broke that 1. Arrow had suffered a minor hamstring strain in the pre-season and 2. Cam Murray had won the race to be the Rabbitohs number 13. The hamstring injury was not overly concerning as Arrow was expected to be ready by round one. The positional switch is far more troubling. With Murray at lock, Arrow would appear to be forced to play either a bench role or reduced minutes as a prop. Both roles are bad news for SuperCoach.
Verdict: WATCH - Priced at a PPG of 53.6, then should he avoid injury Arrow is more than capable of producing 10-15PPG better than that if he gets the minutes. However, injury worries and positional security now push Arrow from BUY to WATCH territory.
Jack Bird CTW/2RF ($381,100)
The Dragons recruit is currently in almost 15% of teams and I just don’t see it. Bird has not played in the NRL since round nine of 2019 due to consecutive ACL injuries and while he is priced well below his 2019 output, and is available at CTW I think he presents both too much risk and uncertainty ahead of round one. The risk, of course, relates to injury. To some extent that is inherent to all players but those players who have torn their ACL do have a higher chance of reinjury. Then there is uncertainty regarding position. The word is Bird will be eased back into the NRL playing edge forward off the bench.
Verdict: PASS - Bench edge forwards are SC poison and that’s on top of injury worries so a definite wait and watch here.
Andrew Davey 2RF ($336,600)
Debuting at the grand old age of 28, Davey went well enough to earn a start in the final two games of the regular season (admittedly as the Eels looked to protect players before finals but a start is a start) and in those two games he averaged 75MPG and 64PPG (44BPPG). If Davey had stayed at Parramatta those two games would be of passing interest. But he didn’t, rather he is now at the Sea Eagles, a club in need of second-row depth in general and a starter in particular following Joel Thompson’s decision to head to the UK Super League. Jack Gosiewski seems to be the consensus tip to fill Thompson’s role but the Gos can miss a tackle and I’m tipping the more reliable Davey to win Hasler’s trust.
Verdict: BUY/WATCH - If Davey is named to start on the edge you’d have to take him at the price, if not watch and wait for when he is then pounce.
HALFBACK
Kyle Flanagan HFB|5/8 ($524,600)
The former Rooster is urgently in almost 8% of teams and I think that’s a worry. Flanagan added almost 16.5PPG in goalkicking while playing for the high-scoring Roosters in 2020 (regular season points 552). The Bulldogs (regular season points 282) should have an improved attacking performance in 2021, but not even the most one-eyed ‘Dogs supporter will expect the team to create as many shots at goal as the Roosters did in 2020. On top of the lower goal attempts I think it fair to suggest the 2021 supporting cast around Flanagan is not at the same standard as the all-international backline that Flanagan enjoyed at Bondi in 2020. I expect Flanagan to average less in 2021 than he did in 2020 - if I had to put a number on it I would suggest a drop as high as 8-10PPG.
Verdict: PASS - A fine player but you are paying overs to start 2021.
Jamal Fogarty HFB ($430,100)
One of the good news stories of 2020, Jamal Fogarty was plucked from the ISP to fill a gap for the Titans and finished the year as the club captain. The Titans went on a great run in the final eight weeks of the season and Fogarty’s form was a key part of that. From round 13-20 (incl) Fogarty averaged 62PPG with nine linebreak assists, seven try assists and a steady 26PPG in base.
Verdict: PASS - Far from the worst at position but I still prefer Harris-Tavita thanks to his goalkicking.
Michael Morgan HFB|5/8 ($386,700)
The golden run of 2015-2017 which saw Morgan average the best part of 59PPG over each of the three seasons is now three years - but just 37 games - ago. Morgan is far from washed up, as he showed when scoring 103 points in a two-try masterclass against the Rabbitohs in round 14 last year. But the North Queensland veteran’s body is starting to fail him as illustrated by his 27 missed games over the past three seasons.
VERDICT: PASS - The DPP is enticing, as is his starting price that sits nearly $100K below what he began 2020 at. However, the injury risk is too high and trades too valuable to risk here.
Mitchell Moses HFB ($481,000)
The playmaker that so many Parra fans seem to love to hate, Mitch Moses wasn’t bad last year - he finished with the eight-best average at his position (minimum 10 games). But Moses was far worse than the year before, with his average dropping 8PPG between 2019 and 2020. Moses’ base was up, his try numbers improved too. Where the damage was done was try assists. Moses had 29 try assists (at an average of 1.21 per game) in 2019 but just seven (at an average of 0.41 per game) in 2020. Moses had good games in 2020 (four of 70+ with a season high 108) but far too many poor games with six games of 45 or fewer points.
VERDICT: PASS - I expect the Eels will find a way to get more from Moses in 2021, but would want to see it consistently before being brave enough to buy in.
MORE SUPERCOACH:
Tom Sangster’s 2021 KFC SuperCoach NRL team
Rob Sutherland’s 2021 KFC SuperCoach NRL team
KFC SuperCoach 2021: Wilson Smith’s team revealed
KFC SuperCoach NRL: 21 players set to shine in 2021
SuperCoach club-by-club guide to transfer madness
KFC SuperCoach NRL transfer guide — Part 2
Strength of schedule: SuperCoach draw analysis
KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021 Cheapie Bible
CASUALTY WARD: Every club’s injury list revealed
FIVE-EIGHTH
Chanel Harris-Tavita HFB|5/8 ($425,900)
Having been flipped and flopped between half, five-eighth and bench utility in 2019 and early 2020, Harris-Tavita was given the chance to show his halfback chops from round 13 of 2020. And in the seven games he played (he missed round 15 due to concussion) at halfback to close the season CHT averaged a stellar 65PPG. A handy goal kicker who has a solid base and averaged almost an offload and a forced dropout per game over said seven-game span Harris-Tavita is my (now not so) sneaky POD pick of the pre-season.
Verdict: BUY - Rob is going to start CHT at 5/8, but if that’s a bit ‘brave’ for you his DPP makes him a perfect third half which you can move between positions (providing your fourth half is also DPP as the guns at HFB (Cleary) and 5/8 (Walker, Munster) are not DPP.
Jake Averillo CTW|5/8 ($331,200)
The Bulldogs want a running five-eighth to partner recruit Kyle Flanagan in the halves and Averillo appears to be the leading candidate for the job. Averillo started at five-eighth in rounds 18-19 last year averaging a very tasty 63.5 while doing so. Now that’s a very small sample size and he added 16 points in GK which, absent injury to Flanagan, won’t happen in 2021, but even removing the GK points, averaging 55.5PPG is still very palatable. Plus add in the pre-season injury which will have him missing the first few weeks, and the 8% of KFC SuperCoaches who currently own him may want to hit TRADE.
Verdict: PASS - There’s talent here but at 5/8 I prefer the much cheaper Matt Moylan and at CTW I prefer cheaper options like James Roberts and Charlie Staines.
CTW
Valentine Holmes CTW/FLB ($509,400)
Last year was a tough one for the Cowboys’ star recruit, struggling in his return to rugby league after his stint in the NFL. But with a proper off-season under his belt 2021 could be the year we see Holmes back to his best. With four tries, nine try assists, seven line breaks, 10 line break assists and three SuperCoach scores above 90, we certainly saw glimpses of his best in 2021, and with the goal kicking duties as well there is a lot of value to be had in Holmes. It’s also worth noting that his initially poor base stats surged toward the end of the year as he returned from injury at fullback, with four straight games of 27+ points in base.
Verdict: WATCH - $500K is a lot to pay for a CTW to start the season, but not too much for a fullback with a proper pre-season under him who is available at CTW. HOWEVER, if the trials are anything to go by, Val could start the year on the wing, and even with the goal kicking duties I think he needs the attacking upside of playing at fullback to be relevant.
Stephen Crichton CTW ($484,900)
He may have been a great chepie who finished the year as one of the NRL’s top try scorers, but compared to other CTW options Crichton was actually very inconsistent. Currently owned by almost 17% of KFC SuperCoaches, Crichton struggles with base stats and is completely dependant on tries and attacking stats to prop up his scores, and without some of those is very capable of scoring 40 points or less (which he did five times in 2020).
Verdict: PASS - While he is playing for one of the best attacking teams in the league and has a lot of upside, his floor is also extremely low for his price and I think if you want an expensive CTW to start the year, you’re probably better off shelling out a bit more to get one with better base stats.
Brian Kelly CTW ($498,900)
Having commenced 2020 off the bench and then playing some reduced minutes at centre and some wing, Kelly then locked in a starting role at centre on the Titans’ left edge by round six. In his 10 full games (well 9 plus one in which he spent 10 in the bin) from that point on Kelly averaged 67.4PPG of which 35.5PPG was in base and a tick over 13PPG in tacklebusts and offloads combined. Kelly missed four games due to injury but had shown excellent durability in season’s past.
Verdict: (BRAVE) BUY - Currently in just 3% of teams I consider Kelly to be the POD pick at the price range. I prefer the security Holmes’ goalkicking gives but would not try too hard to talk you out of selecting Kelly instead.
Dane Gagai CTW ($495,500)
The South Sydney star split his time between wing and centre in 2020 and while his best games (scores of 109 in round five and 142 in round nine) were on the wing his consistency at centre was outstanding. From 10 games on the wing Gagai averaged 52.8 with those two aforementioned blockbusters offset by four games of 25 or less. In his six games at centre, Gagai averaged 61.2 with a ‘worst’ score of 55 points. Averaging better than 30BPPG and 7PPG in TB at centre.
Verdict: (BRAVE) BUY - I must confess I was surprised to see how consistent Gagai was in the centres last year. Barring injury he should be locked on to the lethal left edge and while I can see the value in getting him now I think he's one of those you grab later when you have more cap to play with.
Siosifa Talakai 2RF/CTW ($485,500)
There was no louder or more annoying Talakai guy than Rob Sutherland over the back end of 2020 and yet Rob is a hard pass on Talakai to start 2021. Firstly, Talakai is injured and unlikely to be ready for round one. Then there’s the question of how Talakai will be used in a full strength Cronulla team. While his strong performances saw Talakai oust Briton Nikora at one stage of the season, Nikora worked his way back into the starting squad and with Wade Graham locking down the other edge it seems likely Talakai, once fit, will once again be used as an impact weapon off the bench.
Verdict: PASS - The injury is enough to put a line through Talakai but even if he makes a miraculous recovery and is available for round one you can’t have him at the price coming off the bench.
FULLBACK
Latrell Mitchell FLB ($524,600)
The ‘Latrell Mitchell as fullback’ experiment got off to a lacklustre start with Mitchell averaging just 20PPG over the opening two rounds. The COVID break, and new six again rule interpretation saw a much improved Mitchell. The workrate was still far from elite, but the attacking output was stellar in terms of efficiency. James Tedesco is of course the benchmark at position so let’s compare the pair.
2020 TEDDY v LATRELL (all stats per game)
Teddy’s workrate clearly leaves Latrell to shame. But, Mitchell is incredibly efficient with his touches producing higher linebreak assists and try assist numbers than even the Roosters number one.
So your position with regards to Mitchell in 2021 depends on whether you believe he will lift his workrate while retaining his efficiency - and thus rise into the elite class at position. Or whether that strike rate is unsustainable and the workrate is never going to lift.
VERDICT: WATCH - I’m a huge fan of Mitchell and believer in his ability to almost single-handedly win a game. But, there are too many proven workers who have safer floors and similar ceilings at the position and I prefer them. That being said, if his Charity Shield performance is anything to go by, he is extremely capable of cracking the tonne, which he did in the Bunnies’ opening half against the Dragons.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck FLB ($520,200)
The Warriors skipper did so much work keeping the team together during 2020 that it’s no shock to see his output on the filed took a hit. Tuivasa-Sheck’s, already stellar, workload increased in 2020 with the fullback averaging 19 runs per game, but his try assist and linebreak assist numbers plunged. The issue was not a lack of points by the team, the Warriors averaged 18PPG in 2019 and 17PPG in 2020 and clearly not a workrate issue at RTS’s end. Regardless, Tuivasa-Sheck’s season averages 2016-20 run 54, 60, 57, 71, 59. Maybe we just need to accept that RTS is one of those players who despite being a best at position in NRL are not that in SuperCoach.
VERDICT: PASS - Currently in over 7% of teams I have no doubt RTS will have some big games, but there will be too many scores in the 45-55 range for him to compete with the genuine guns.
Jamayne Isaako FLB/CTW ($346,400)
The Broncos fullback struggled in 2020, starting off well under Anthony Seibold, before being dropped to the bench, moved back to the wing, and then missing the remainder for the season with an average of just 39. However, he seems to have won back the No.1 jersey for 2021, and he looked solid there to start 2020, averaging 44.6 (with high scores of 83 and 63). But with Kotoni Staggs injured, Isaako will likely kick goals to start the year.
Verdict: (BRAVE) BUY - While I think fullback is one of the position where you should prioritise getting two genuine guns, if you do want a cheaper option Isaako is one of the best. Surely the Broncos improve in 2021 and he gets more opportunity with the ball.. right?
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