KFC SuperCoach NRL: 21 players you can profit from in 2021

Some are cheapies, some are guns all of these players should be on your KFC SuperCoach NRL watchlist ahead of the 2021 season.

Art for 21 to watch in 2021.

Some have changed clubs, others have the promise of a more meaningful role on the horizon while there are a couple here who look set to bounce back from a bit of a 2020 nightmare.

All have caught our eye as we begin to plan for the upcoming KFC SuperCoach NRL season.

Find somewhere comfy because this one is a long one …

21 PLAYERS SET TO SHINE IN KFC SUPERCOACH NRL IN 2021

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen – FLB, ($629,000)

The Storm star started 2020 slowly (averaging 55.9PPG over his first eight games) and finished with a flurry of big scores punching out four 100+ efforts and averaging 84.4PPG over his final nine games of the season. ‘Paps’ kicked on in the finals and won the Clive Churchill medal for best on ground in Melbourne’s GF victory over the Panthers. So established in the conversation of the game’s best fullbacks is Papenhuyzen that it is easy to overlook the fact that he has just 23 regular season starts at the position. Still improving, I rate him a bit of a bargain thanks to that slow start to 2020 and thus a solid buy.

2 Tino Fa’asuamaleaui – 2RF/FRF ($504,900)

Big Tino has finished up with the Storm and will play for the Titans in 2021. At Melbourne he played a mixture of bench, edge, lock and even started at prop for one game. At the Titans I expect him to cement a position as the starting number 13 and play around 55MPG though he may start at prop and average close to 50MPG. Regardless of what number is on his back, minutes in the middle are KFC SuperCoach money for Tino. In the eight games where he played 45+ minutes in the middle, Tino averaged 77PPG, priced at a 20PPG discount to that average Fa’asuamaleaui is a dual position mid-ranger who should be on your selection radar.

At his best Latrell Mitchell is an elite SuperCoach producer. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

3. Latrell Mitchell – FLB ($524,600)

What a rollercoaster 2020 was for Latrell Mitchell. At a new club, playing in a new position and without the goalkicking duties, Mitchell was always going to struggle early on – though even the most pessimistic would likely have expected better than the 17 and 23 he scored in the opening two weeks. However, Mitchell appeared to turn the corner in the month that followed scoring 51, 71, 112 and 71 in rounds 3-6. Plenty jumped on only to be bitterly disappointed when round seven saw a measly nine points scored, matching 40s in the following fortnight and then a two-week suspension for striking Josh Reynolds. On his return Mitchell went on a bit of a tear averaging 75.8 with a low of 43 and a high of 141. Sadly the click went clunk when in the fiftieth minute of round 16 Mitchell tore his hamstring and his season was over. So what to expect in 2021? Well in just 14 matches Mitchell managed 24 linebreak assists and 15 try assists. If you take out the first two rounds, which one might forgive as warm-ups for a player still finding his feet at fullback, Mitchell averaged 65.75. That’s good enough to see him ranked ninth at fullback (Charlie Staines, more of him below, and his two game stint aside). But is it good enough to pick him in 2021? Well that’s tricky. Mitchell was available at CTW/FLB last year and he won’t be in 2021. The position is loaded and Mitchell’s lack of work, and thus odd shockingly low score, compared to other stars at the position will scare many off. But the reward is certainly there too – and Latrell will come at a fair price thanks to that quiet start.

4. Charlie Staines – FLB/CTW ($297,700)

In 107 minutes of NRL action the Charlie ‘The Forbes Ferrari’ Staines scored six tries including a sensational bag of four on debut. Unluckily for Charlie and the Panthers, but luckily for SuperCoaches everywhere, Staines’ season was cut short just 27 minutes into his second game when he suffered a grade two hamstring tear and thus he receives a big discount on his starting price for 2021. Club veteran Josh Mansour has been moved on opening a wing spot for Staines. He won’t keep scoring tries at anywhere near the rate he managed in 2020, but at a smidgen under $300K he’s the cheapest way into the red-hot Penrith attack and therefore is a definite buy,

5. Jordan Riki – 2RF ($277,500)

David Fifita’s departure from the Broncos opens up a starting second-row slot and while there are a few options to fill it, recent pre-season footage indicates that coach Kevin Walters is leaning towards giving big minutes to Jordan Riki. The hulking young Kiwi made his NRL debut from the bench in round 14 with his minutes progressing with each match played and culminating in an 80-minute effort against the Cowboys in round 20. In that game Riki scored 50 points in base (38 tackles and eight runs) threw an offload and busted a couple of tackles. That’s not top-13 scoring but you could use him as a scoring reserve and he’ll make you nice coin over the opening 8 weeks before you upgrade to a keeper.

6. Christian Welch – FRF ($453,500)

Welch’s 2019 season was cut short when he ruptured his ACL in round 20. He therefore began 2020 somewhat underdone in the fitness stakes and so while he returned to the field in round three it was not until round nine that he began playing solid starter minutes. From round nine to round 20 he played 10 games (missing two due to a COVID quarantine breach) averaging 59.6PPG in 51.4MPG and in the final five games of that stretch he averaged 67.6PPG in 55.2MPG. Welch profiles as excellent value to start 2021, not quite elite he nonetheless can produce just below the top-tier at position making him a great FRF2 pickup.

Tesi Niu has been training at centre for the Broncos. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

7 Tesi Niu – CTW/FLB ($232,500)

Tagged the ‘best Broncos fullback prospect since Darren Lockyer’ Niu was always on somewhat of a hiding to nothing in 2020. He made his debut off the bench in round four and then his first start at fullback in round seven. Niu’s best two games came in round eight and nine against the Warriors (53 points) and Bulldogs (58 points). He scored a try assist in each game, but the stat I liked the most was his involvement with 17 runs against the Warriors and 18 against the Bulldogs. Round 10 against the Wests Tigers was a bit of a dud and there ended his season with a wrist injury forcing him into the rehab group. There’s a new coach at the Broncos and Niu looks to have a new role with Kevvie Walters running Niu at right centre in the pre-season. Regular right centre Kotoni Staggs (ACL) won’t be back till midway through 2021 and that’s more than enough time for Niu to make some money for us before we upgrade. If he’s named to start in round one he’ll be in my team.

8. Hudson Young – 2RF ($474,200)

Speaking of players poised to take advantage of the departure of an edge player, Hudson Young looks the man most likely to take John Bateman’s position on the right edge for the Raiders. In the six games he started on an edge for Canberra last season, Young played the full 80 in all of them (well 88 mins in the overtime epic against the Eels in round seven but you take my point) and averaged 48 points. That’s not super exciting but it is brought down by scores of 28 (Storm) and 32 (Roosters) against two of the toughest teams in the comp. In the other four games Young’s scores read 68 (56 base), 46 (48), 64 (57) and 50 (50) for an average of 57PPG (41.75 base). That’s pretty promising. He’s not incredible value at the price but he is a youngster on the rise.

9. Victor Radley – 2RF/HOK ($445,500)

Victor ‘The Inflictor’ was a real rollercoaster in 2020. I was pretty keen on Radley as a high risk/high reward buy heading in to the 2020 season then lost heart after he put up a damp squib of a game in round one scoring 25 points (55 minutes). After that though we saw the Radley I’d been anticipating as he rattled off scores of 70 (69), 62 (67) and 105 (66) from rounds 2-4. Victor was on here I thought. And then the minutes dried up; in round five Radley scored 49 in 48 minutes, round six just 34 in 44. And round seven, Radley ruptured his ACL and the season was over. So what happens in 2021? Well it’s anyone’s guess. From a rugby league perspective it was clear the Roosters really missed Radley’s link play, his ability to take the pressure off the halves and spread the ball wide. When fit I expect him to get plenty of minutes. I also don’t expect that to happen from round one, rather the Roosters will look to build him up slowly. For that reason I don’t think Radley’s one to start the year with. Rather watch how his minutes progress and if it looks like he’s back to 60+ then jump on and enjoy the ride.

10. Tom Trbojevic – FLB ($593,500)

Using one of your uber-valuable fullback selections on a player who has managed just 19 games in the past two years is risky, but oh the reward … Tommy Turbo at his best is a thing of KFC SuperCoach beauty, capable of punching out triple-figure boomers with ease and possessing a floor of around 70 points. At his worst, he’s injured and you’re left watching those who took a safer less injury prone fullback pull away from you on the leaderboard. Trbojevic is cheap at a 67PPG average as 2017-19 he averaged near enough 10PPG better and the faster game under the ‘six again’ rule application is custom built for work hungry fullbacks who hang around the ruck like a kelpie looking for work.

Valentine Holmes doesn’t come cheap but he could be a premium CTW worth starting with. Picture: Alix Sweeney

11. Valentine Holmes – CTW/FLB ($509,400)

2020 was a rough year for the Cowboys’ star recruit, struggling in his return to rugby league after his stint in the NFL. But with a proper off-season under his belt 2021 could be the year we see Valentine Holmes back to his best … if he stays at fullback. The Cowboys played around with Holmes and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow at the back with mixed results, but for KFC SuperCoach purposes Valentine was only really relevant when playing at the back, ending with a season average of 58 (64.5 if you take out injury affected games). With four tries, nine try assists, seven line breaks, 10 line break assists and three KFC SuperCoach scores above 90, we certainly saw glimpses of his best, and with the goal kicking duties as well there is a lot of value to be had in Holmes, and he’s the only premium CTW I’m keen on to start 2021.

12. Chanel Harris-Tavita- HFB|5/8 ($425,900)

I’m think Harris-Tavita is a gamble worth taking in the halves, so much so that I selected him in the first draft of my 2021 team. Here’s what I wrote then: Having been flipped and flopped between half, five-eighth and bench utility in 2019 and early 2020, Harris-Tavita was given the chance to show his halfback chops from round 13 2020. And in the seven games he played (he missed round 15 due to concussion) at halfback CHT averaged a stellar 65PPG. A handy goal kicker who has a decent base, Harris-Tavita averaged almost an offload and a forced dropout per game over said seven-game span. The young Warriors is my (now not so) sneaky POD pick of the pre-season.

13. Luke Thompson – FRF/2RF ($451,800)

Thompson will not play in the opening rounds following a suspension for chomping down on James Tamou’s ear in the final round of 2020. However, you should keep him in your watchlist, as I believe you will see a very much improved Thomson in 2021 than the undercooked version we saw for much of 2020. The Englishman arrived in Australia mid-season and then spent a stint working solo in quarantine so was still finding his fitness early. He also played lock (covering for an injured Adam Elliott) instead of his preferred prop for much of the season. Has handy DPP status and could make a useful pick-up when the inevitable injuries strike down one of your stars early doors.

MORE SUPERCOACH:

KFC SuperCoach NRL: 21 players set to shine in 2021

SuperCoach club-by-club guide to transfer madness

KFC SuperCoach NRL transfer guide — Part 2

Strength of schedule: SuperCoach draw analysis

KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021 Cheapie Bible

CASUALTY WARD: Every club’s injury list revealed

Tom Sangster’s 2021 KFC SuperCoach NRL team

Rob Sutherland’s 2021 KFC SuperCoach NRL team

KFC SuperCoach 2021: Wilson Smith’s team revealed

14. Jayden Brailey – HOK ($356,600)

Brailey is another mid-ranger worth some consideration as his injury affected season sees him start 2021 at a discount to both his historic average and his (admittedly limited) 2020 output. Priced at a smidgen better than a 40PPG average I would expect Brailey to average 10-15PPG better than that once he resumes his 80-minute role. Guns and cheapies is the tried and true method of winning at KFC SuperCoach but value is value and should the pre-season indicate Brailey is set to play big minutes in 2021 then I will be very tempted.

15. Christian Tuipulotu – CTW ($237,400)

Just one game is not much of a sample size, but it was a pretty fair game Tuipulotu played on debut scoring 67 points with 23 runs, four tackle busts, a linebreak and a try – all against the Melbourne Storm no less. That’s the workrate we want from a winger and it’s the workrate that saw Manly snap him up from the Roosters when he was let go (as a Roosters fan I wish we’d kept him but that’s another story). Tuipulotu also played one game in the NSW Cup in 2020 and in that game he had 22 receipts for 157 metres – workrate. I expect him to put serious pressure on incumbent winger Jorge Taufua at the Sea Eagles and the minute he gets selected he’s in my KFC SuperCoach squad.

Adam Keighran, who once was a Warrior, is now at the Roosters.

16. Adam Keighran – HFB|5/8 ($370,900)

The pre-season hype has superb young half Sam Walker as the man most likely to partner Luke Keary in the halves. Contrarian Roosters cognoscenti suggest that Lachie Lam is the man who will get the job to start 2021 while the club gives Walker time to mature. I think everyone is discounting the claims of Keighran too readily. Playing just three games in 2020, all at centre, doesn’t really scream ‘playmaker at premiership contender’ does it? But make no mistake Keighran is a half. He was the NSW Cup halfback of the year when playing for the Panthers in 2018 and he’s a talented goalkicker — something that will seriously enhance his chances of wearing the jersey vacated by Flanagan because the only other goalkicker of note is Siosiua Taukeiaho and I expect TKO’s minutes workload to be slightly reduced in 2021 thus limiting his availability to kick.

17. Lindsay Collins – FRF ($411,400)

Big Lindsay played nine games of 40+ minutes in 2020 and averaged 57.7 over the span. Now that was boosted by an outlier 106 against the Broncos, but to be fair Collins scored 69 of that 106 in base so it wasn’t a fluke. The Roosters have two outstanding senior props in Taukeiaho and Jared Waerea-Heargreaves but Collins’ case for more minutes, possibly pushing one of those two to a bench role, is a fair one. Collins is the young bull the Roosters need. He makes metres, he’s fast, he leads the line. I expect we’ll see a bigger role for Collins in 2021.

18. Tom Flegler – FRF ($399,300)

Let’s stick with the ‘next gen of big men’ theme, Flegler started nine games last year (averaging 47PPG and 47.5MPG) and played four more off the bench (averaging 41PPG and 36MPG). Importantly for KFC SuperCoach, Flegler’s not just a worker, there’s a bit of flash to the young man which saw him average eight points a game in offloads/tackle busts. That’s the ‘ability’ section covered off; now for opportunity. Joe Ofahengaue and his 48MPG played mostly through the middle is headed to the Tigers. Matt Lodge, who missed much of 2020 but is on the comeback trail from a knee injury and averaged 57MPG in the middle in 2019, is rumoured to be leaving the Broncos too. And even if Lodge stays I expect Flegler to jump above him in the pecking order. Not a ‘cheapie’ by any means, Flegler is certainly capable of adding 10 points to his 2020 PPG and one I’ll be keeping a close pre-season eye on.

19. Jake Averillo – 5/8|CTW ($331,200)

Kyle Flanagan has been brought to the Bulldogs as the new midfield general and coach Trent Barrett recently gave the biggest clue as to who he plans to partner Flanagan in the halves. I’ll save you a click – though the article is well worth a read as Barrett gives plenty of insight into how he sees the Bulldogs in 2021 – Barrett says he sees the running of Averillo complementing Flanagan. Averillo played 13 games in his debut season, four off the bench, seven at centre and most pertinently his final two games at five-eight. Now two games is not a big sample size, but there was plenty to like in what we saw. Averillo scored in multiple stat areas with try assists, offloads, a linebreak, forced drop out and solid base all combining for a very tempting average of 63.5PPG over the two games. Now, that did include 16 points in one game from goalkicking and Flanagan will take the tee, but even removing those points, 55.5PPG is not too shabby at the price.

20. Andrew Davey – 2RF ($336,600)

Debuting at the grand old age of 28, Davey went well enough to earn a start in the final two games of the regular season (admittedly as the Eels looked to protect players before finals but a start is a start) and in those two games he averaged 75MPG and 64PPG (44BPPG). If Davey had stayed at Parramatta those two games would be of passing interest. But he didn’t, rather he is now at the Sea Eagles, a club in need of second-row depth in general and a starter in particular following Joel Thompson’s decision to head to the UK Super League. Jack Gosiewski seems to be the consensus tip to fill Thompson’s role but the Gos can miss a tackle and I’m tipping the more reliable Davey to win Hasler’s trust. If he does, you’d have to take him at the price.

21. Jazz Tevaga – 2RF ($552,900)

Tevaga punched out points at a monster 1.32PPM last year and it was no fluke as the floor to that PPM was in base with Tevaga the only top-25 2RF to average better than 1BPPM, a floor to which Tevaga added better than 10PPG in tackle busts and offloads combined. When playing 45+ minutes Tevaga averaged 69PPG and that includes a game (round 17) in which he spent 10 in the bin and at least two games in which he was limited due to needing an HIA. There’s a new coach at the Warriors and plenty of competition for minutes in the middle, but Tevaga brings so much to the side that for mine he must get 50+ minutes. If he does then I think he’s got real upside.