KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021: Rob Sutherland reveals his team for Round 1

Injury news has forced Rob Sutherland’s hand with a VERY late update to his 2021 KFC SuperCoach NRL team – check out the full squad.

Team List Tuesday has been and gone, and it is time to finalise* my KFC SuperCoach NRL team for the opening round of the 2021 season.

I’m taking a different path than in years gone by where I aimed for nine, or even ten, ‘guns’ and the rest cheapies.

This year I have just the six clear guns, and four mid-rangers. It feels like a gamble, but it also feels like a team that will make a stronger start to the season than I have in previous years. Of course, the fear is that absent the usual horde of cheapie it may struggle to make the cash I need to come home with a wet sail but if my mid-range punts pay off then I may not need them.

That’s enough words of justification from me, let’s get into the team reveal.

* NB I reserve the right to make alterations if there are late changes to the teams as announced on Tuesday!

HOOKER

UPDATED 10 MARCH: Damien Cook HOK ($621,000) OUT to Connor Watson HOK|5/8 ($288,600)

This is the first year in forever that I am not starting with a gun hooker. I’m not writing off Cook, far from it I expect I will finish the season with him in my team, rather I’m chasing some value early while I watch to see how having Benji Marshall at 14 impacts Cook. And so, I have shifted Connor Watson from my halves into hooker. Watson has been training at lock all pre-season and as expected was named to start there for round one. I’m hoping for 30 odd tackles, 8-10 runs and quite a few attacking stats as he’s a canny ball runner well able to hit holes and put others through them.

UPDATED 10 MARCH: Jake Simpkin HOK ($173,700) OUT Jacob Liddle HOK ($247,200) IN

I originally had Simpkin here, then I dropped him in favour of his teammate Liddle, then I flipped back and now I’m flopping. Why? Because Liddle has been named to start for the Wests Tigers and there’s no other hooker option on the bench. Liddle’s horrible history with injuries has been well documented but should he stay healthy and play 65+ minutes then he’s going to make good money and fast. I’m not expecting Api Koroisau 2020 kind of profits but even 65% of that will allow me to upgrade to a keeper reasonably quickly.

Connor Watson is going to do the heavy lifting at hooker for the Beasts.

FRONT ROW FORWARD

UPDATED 10 MARCH: Christian Welch FRF ($453,500)OUT Joe Ofahengaue FRF/2RF ($340,800) IN – Injury delayed Welch’s start to the 2020 season but from round 9 to round 20 Welch played 10 games (missing two due to a COVID quarantine breach) averaging 59.6PPG in 51.4MPG. Those are very good numbers and the injury to Dale Finucane and composition of the Storm Rd 1 bench all suggest he will get off to a strong start in 2021. So ‘why are you dropping him?’ you may well ask. The answer is in the hulking form of Nelson Asofa-Solomona. NAS is a player I think could go to a new level in 2021 but more on him below. And so to Joe O; a player who averaged 49.4PPG and 48.7MPG in the 10 games he started FRF over the past two seasons. Priced at a big discount to that average after spending plenty of time as a bench player at the Broncos Ofahengaue is now at the Tigers and named to start at prop. There is plenty of beef on the bench so he may not play more than 45 minutes a game but I’ll be more than happy for him to toddle along at 45-48PPG making money until I can upgrade to the inevitable ‘keeper’ who has a slowish start.

Matt Lodge FRF ($299,000)

Injury reduced the big bopper’s 2020 output to six games, three of which were off the interchange bench. But his loss is our gain as Lodge is priced at an average of around 34PPG – an average he should have little trouble exceeding by 10+PPG. yes he’s big, yes he’s not as mobile as many other props and yes the new faster NRL may not exactly suit him. But the Broncos need to make metres and Payne Haas is suspended for the early rounds while Tom Flegler (who I rate) is still working back from shoulder surgery. I expect Lodge to start fast and hopefully make some quick money.

Spencer Leniu FRF ($218,500)

A hard charger with the ball (Leniu averaged better than seven hitups and a tackle bust per game in 2020) he’s also a sound defender having missed just seven and made 182 tackles in his brief NRL career to date. The departure of James Tamou and Zane Tetevano means there should be minutes available in the middle and I expect Leniu to get a portion of those. Won’t be a huge money maker but looks to be a good slow burn with solid job security.

Stefano Utoikamanu (FRF) $186,800 – The young prop has had huge raps on him for a couple of years now. Was under-utilised at the Eels but now at the Wests Tigers I expect him to carve out a solid role and he should be a decent money maker.

Ryan Matterson of the Eels is the safest of premium SuperCoach selections in the second row. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Getty Images

SECOND ROW FORWARD

Ryan Matterson 2RF (666,000)

Ryan Matterson was a picture of reliability in 2020 averaging 56PPG in base and as a result the only game he failed to score 60+ was the one in which he was knocked out early in the game. The Parramatta star also has tremendous upside scoring 90+ in six of his 17 games.

UPDATED 10 MARCH: Tohu Harris 2RF ($613,000) OUT, Angus Crichton 2RF ($670,500) IN – In 2020, Tohu reinvented himself from being a skilful edge forward who could play pivot at a pinch to a tackle monster in the middle churning out 80MPG and 70PPG in base alone regularly. And yet, I’m dropping him. The Warriors have recruited heavily in the middle and their Round 1 team suggests Tohu will get more spells on the bench in 2021 whereas the Roosters are going to lean very heavily on Crichton this year as are The Beasts. Crichton is that beautiful 2RF who produces big base (averaging 54PPG in 2021) around which he adds attacking stats seemingly at will. In 2020 he played eight games of 80 mins (well one was 85) and averaged 85PPG over that span. With Boyd Cordner resting for the opening 12 rounds I expect Crichton to play every minute and continue to produce huge scores while doing so.

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui FRF/2RF ($504,900)

I think Tino is a solid buy for 2020, and well priced when you consider that his season average was brought down by playing limited minutes off the bench to start the year. Tino played eight games of 50 or more minutes in 2020. He scored a try in three of those games and none in five. In the five games he did not score a try Tino averaged 55PPG which is near enough where he is priced to start 2021. In those games where he played 50+ minutes AND scored a try, Tino averaged 102.7; so in his ‘off’ games I expect Fa’asuamaleaui to cover his price and then there’s that juicy upside.

Nelson Asofa-Solomona racks up plenty of points in tackle busts every game. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

UPDATED 10 MARCH: Jake Trbojevic 2RF ($582,500)OUT, Nelson Asofa-Solomona FRF/2RF ($481,000) IN

I’m taking a chance here replacing the ultra-consistent Jurbo with the man mountain that is NAS. The Storm love to use Asofa-Solomona as an impact weapon, and he makes a tremendous SuperCoach impact too averaging better than 10PPG in offloads and tackle busts last year. But ‘sofa’ has also shown that he is more than capable of playing big minutes for big base averaging 50MPG and 73PPG over his final four games of last season. The Storm are running a Round 1 bench light on in middles and Asofa-Solomona, named to start at lock in the absence of Dale Finucane (injured Round 5-8), looks like he might get the minutes he needs to be an early season X-factor.

Jordan Riki 2RF ($277,500)

The hulking young Kiwi made his NRL debut from the bench in round 14 with his minutes progressing with each match played and culminating in an 80-minute effort against the Cowboys in round 20. In that game Riki scored 50 points in base (38 tackles and eight runs) threw an offload and busted a couple of tackles. That’s not top-13 scoring but good enough for a reserve early in the season and he’ll make you nice coin over the opening 8 weeks before I upgrade him to a keeper. Riki also did his selection hopes no harm at all with a very impressive showing for the Maori All Stars barging over for a try and generally looking a handful in attack all night.

UPDATED 10 MARCH: Ben Murdoch-Masila FRF/2RF ($333,000) OUT, Jarred Anderson 2RF/CTW ($173,700) IN

Yes, I know Anderson is almost guaranteed not to play but this selection gives me flexibility with my CTW leader (see below) and leaves me with $90K in the bank for the inevitable early season trades.

MORE SUPERCOACH:

KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021 Cheapie Bible

KFC SuperCoach NRL: 21 players set to shine in 2021

SuperCoach club-by-club guide to transfer madness

KFC SuperCoach NRL transfer guide — Part 2

Strength of schedule: SuperCoach draw analysis

Tom Sangster reveals his team for 2021

HALFBACK

Nathan Cleary HFB ($734,300) – I doubt even Cleary can replicate his incredible 2020 heroics which saw him finish with an average of 83PPG. Yet even if his average drops 5 points he’ll still likely finish 10 points clear of the next best at the position. A true stat stuffer, the only statistical category in which Cleary led his position in 2020 was forced drop outs; but he’s right near the top in pretty much every other category and that’s why he finished a whopping 14.8PPG clear of his next best (Shaun Johnson) by PPG and scored 204 points more than the next best for total points (Daly Cherry-Evans) despite playing two fewer games than DCE.

UPDATED 11 MARCH:Chanel Harris-Tavita HFB|5/8 ($425,900) OUT Jamal Fogarty HFB ($430,100)

This one hurts, but it’s an example of how ruthless you need to be in SuperCoach – you can’t have favourites and you can’t ignore injuries. I’ve raved about CHT all pre-season, but he has an injured quadriceps. We’ve not seen him all pre-season and now we know that, while he’s expected to play in round one, the quad injury is lingering sufficiently to prevent him from goalkicking. And so the axe has been wielded and CHT is gone. In comes Jamal Fogarty, one of the feel good stories of 2020. A guy who had had a taste of the NRL in 2017 but then turfed out and so was plying his trade in the QCup until post-Covid break the Titans needed a half and Fogarty took his chance. It took some time to get up to speed but when Fogarty started humming so did the Titans and in the final eight games of 2020 he averaged 62PPG. Fogarty will be running behind a better pack in 2021 AND is set to take the goalkicking job full time. HE doesn’t have the DPP of CHT and costs $5K more but there’s plenty of potential here and he could be the X-actor the Beasts were looking for.

Gold Coast Titans great Preston Campbell is a Fogarty fan and so am I.

FIVE-EIGHTH

UPDATED 10 MARCH: Connor Tracey HFB|5/8 ($258,100) OUT, Cody Walker 5/8 ($656,000)

Quite the upgrade eh? Tracey was my reserve HFB based on the talk that Cronulla coach Morris had been using him at fullback during the pre-season, however it was not to be with the Sharks selecting Tracey at 14 for the season opener. And so I have shifted CHT to be my HFB2 and in comes Cody ‘SuperCoach single game record holder’ Walker. The South Sydney pivot finished 2020 in tremendous form and looked to have not missed a beat to start 2021 cutting the Dragons to ribbons in the Charity Shield. Unfairly tagged ‘mercurial’ by some, Walker has scored 1,331, 1,429, 1,460, 1,427 and 1,333 (reduced season) points in the past five seasons and consistently scored 60+PPG better than any other at position over that time. Big money but worth every penny.

UPDATED 10 MARCH: Connor Watson HOK|5/8 ($286,600) to HOK, Matt Moylan 5|8/FLB ($253,600) IN

I think Moylan represents good – if risky – value. Regular Cronulla 5/8 Shaun Johnson (Achilles) will miss the opening eight rounds and winding back to 2018, Moylan played 19 games at five-eighth and averaged 51.6 while doing so. If he can produce that sort of output while SJ is away he’ll quickly rise in price allowing me to upgrade to one of the guns at the position.

CENTRE/WING

UPDATED 10 MARCH:Jordan Rapana CTW ($370,400)OUT, Kurt Capewell 2RF/CTW ($423,900) IN

I toyed with the mercurial maestro that is Rapana as my most expensive CTW but in the end I have switched him out to fit in a player I hope can replicate the marvellous CTW stability that his teammate Isaah Yeo provided last year. Saying that, I’m not expecting Capewell to be all that Yeo (who finished with the third-most points of any CTW eligible player and fifth-most of any 2RF in 2020) was but would be more than happy to settle for 80% of that. In 2020, Capewell was limited by injury. But in the three games he started at second row, excluding an injury affected game, Capewell averaged 81PPG. He won’t keep that up, he scored three tries over the three games, but Capewell also averaged 52PPG in base, and there’s every reason to think that can be maintained. Capewell went on to have a great finals series and then starred for Queensland in Origin and his form has been rewarded and seen him displace 2020 breakout star Liam Martin as the starting right edge for the Panthers.

Charlie Staines CTW/FLB ($297,700) – The $130K price bump on a true rookie is unwelcome, but Staines will start in my team as a starting wing in the most exciting attacking team in the competition for sub-$300K still represents value.

West Tigers have thrown James Roberts an NRL lifeline.

James Roberts CTW ($277,700) – Roberts had a horror year in 2020 with poor form, a stint in rehabilitation and then a season-ending pectoral injury limiting him to just six games for South Sydney. Not ready to end his rugby league career, Roberts reached out to his old coach Michael Maguire and has landed a one-year deal at the Wests Tigers. Reportedly training well, Jimmy the Jet is the front runner to land the right edge centre job, which places him inside one of the game’s most dangerous wingers in David Nofoaluma. At his best, Roberts is a 60PPG centre. I’m not expecting ‘best,’ but Roberts is still just 27-years-old and two years removed from being an Origin series winning centre. Keep an eye on pre-season reports, if Roberts is moving well and named to start, then he makes strong appeal.

Fanitesi Niu CTW/FLB ($232,500) – The young gun played a mix of bench and fullback in an injury-limited 2020 but there’s a new coach at the Broncos and Niu looks to have a new role with Kevvie Walters running Niu at right centre. Regular right centre Kotoni Staggs (ACL) won’t be back till midway through 2021 and that’s more than enough time for Niu to make some money for us before we upgrade.

Daine Laurie FLB/CTW ($223,200) – Formerly of the Panthers, Laurie was chased hard by the Tigers with the incentive that he could become the club’s long-term fullback and we will see how that goes early with him beating Moses Mbye for the number one jersey for the opening round. In round 20 Laurie got a crack at the back for the Panthers and he excelled producing 71 points of which 45 came in base. We don’t need that from Laurie to be value, 75% of that and he’s going to soar in price.

UPDATED 10 MARCH: Max Feagai CTW ($203,100)OUT, David Fusitu’a CTW ($251,800) IN – The Dragons couldn’t find a place for Feagai in their round one team and so I’m all aboard Air Fus instead. Last year was largely a write off for Fusitu’a who played just the seven games before leaving the Warriors to return to New Zealand for compassionate reasons. Fusitu’a is not a monster worker, but he is no shirker either, and I’m expecting a return to his 2016-18 form and an average around 15PPG better than where he is priced to start the year. A few early season tries and his price will soar.

UPDATED 10 MARCH: Greg Marzhew CTW ($173,700) OUT, Bailey Simonsson CTW ($205,000) IN – Greg Marzhew (who was formerly known as Greg Leleisiuao) is going to be a SuperCoach God when he finally gets selected to play NRL. But he has not been picked by the Titans and so I’m shifting over to the Raider Bailey Simonsson. The departure of Nick Cotric left a slot on the Canberra wing and Simonsson has won that job. 2020 was not a banner year for the Raider playing a mixture of bench and wing before injury ended his season in round nine, but his 2019 figures (18 games, 38PPG) are a better reflection of what we can expect should he stay healthy and I’d be happy to take that output at this price.

FULLBACK

James Tedesco FLB ($843,100) – The fullback class of 2020 was elite, and yet Tedesco still averaged 15PPG better than the best of the rest and scored three of the ten single game best ever scores. The $840K is a hideously high price to pay, but any team looks better with Tedesco in it, and as a Roosters fan it is so much more fun to watch him perform when he’s in my side than out of it.

Ryan Papenhuyzen (FLB) $629,000 – Paps got off to a slow start in 2020, in my eye struggling to gel with Cam Munster. But things started to click from round seven onwards and in the eleven games he played from that point on Papenhuyzen averaged 84PPG exceeding 100 points five times. He’s not quite Teddy class yet, but Papenhuyzen’s not far away and he is $200K cheaper hence the selection. The cherry on top is that Papenhuyzen has won the goalkicking duties and that projects to add a steady 10+PPG to his already considerable output.