Can it ever make sense to pick mid-range players over guns in SuperCoach NRL?
Cheapies and Guns is the tried and tested SuperCoach NRL selection method but Rob Sutherland dives deep, very deep, into the statistical archive to argue the merits of mid-range priced players.
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Having argued the merits of sticking to the tried and tested ‘Guns and Cheapies’ selection strategy for your 2020 team (here), Rob Sutherland crunches the numbers to discern whether the dreaded mid-range player also has his place in your squad.
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METHOD
Having identified the top-25 finishers for total points and PPG average (minimum 10 games) across 2017-19 I have then classified those players as either ‘Guns’, ‘Mid-Rangers’ or ‘Cheapies’.
I have defined ‘Guns’ as the 40 most expensive players to start the season. ‘Cheapies’ and ‘Mid-rangers’ lack the same simple definition but I think the categories are sufficiently uniform across the seasons for the sake of comparison.
THE RESULTS
In 2019 the breakdown of players who finished top-25 for total points and PPG average are as follows: (Nb I have included full tables at the bottom of this article for reference)
In 2018 the breakdown of players who finished top-25 for total points and PPG average are as follows: (Nb I have included full tables at the bottom of this article for reference)
In 2017 the breakdown of players who finished top-25 for total points and PPG average are as follows: (Nb I have included full tables at the bottom of this article for reference)
THE ANALYSIS
Mid-rangers more than pull their weight
Across 2017-19, mid-rangers filled 42.7% of the top-25 rankings for total points and 37.33% of the top-25 rankings for PPG average.
In the three seasons combined, 10 of the top-10 overall scorers began the season at a mid-range price.
Too many guns failed to fire
Guns were less likely to finish inside the top-25 for either category than they were to finish within it with 59% of guns failing to finish inside the top-25 for total points and 54% failing to finish inside the top-25 for PPG average.
And guns cost a lot more than mid-rangers. For comparison this is the average starting price of a top-25 finishing player in each category for each season:
Your average top-25 finishing mid-ranger started 2019 near enough $150K cheaper than your average top-25 finishing gun. That’s a big saving that would help fill some holes in the rest of your starting squad.
But it’s not all doom and gloom for the Gun Show
At this point many of you, me included, may be wondering whether ‘Guns and Cheapies’ is the way to go in 2020.
Well, let’s now begin to outline the case for picking the premium priced players.
1. Guns overwhelmingly fill the top end of the top-25 lists
Up until now we have been tallying top-25 finishes, and while finishing in the top-25 of either category marks a player as having had a very good season, there is still tremendous variance between finishing at the top or bottom of that exclusive list.
The top overall scorer in 2019 (Cam Smith) scored 388 points more than the player who finished 25th (Briton Nikora). The top PPG average in 2019 (James Tedesco) averaged fully 21 more points per game than the player who finished 25th (Matt Lodge).
Here is the average finishing position of guns versus mid-rangers in each category each season.
Guns outperformed mid-rangers in terms of total points in each year, less so in 2019 but by solid margins in 2017-18.
However, the statistic which stands out here is how much guns overwhelmingly outperformed mid-rangers with regard to PPG averages.
In 2019, for example, Tom Trbojevic, Manu Ma’u and Jason Taumalolo all failed to finish in the top-25 for total points due to playing far less games than several mid-rangers. However, they all finished well within the top-10 for PPG average.
We do not have to pick and stick, we can trade and so I consider PPG average to be the more important area of achievement.
2. Prices are not static and there are a LOT of mid-rangers
The vast majority of players who finish in the top-25 which begin the season as mid-rangers will quickly progress to a gun price point.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Ryan Matterson, James Fisher-Harris and John Bateman all began 2019 as mid-rangers and joined the gun ranks within six weeks. Mitchell Moses and Kenny Bromwich took a little longer to reach gun status due to their lower entry price but get there they did.
And there are a lot more mid-rangers at the start of the season than there are guns. As noted above, I have defined ‘guns’ in this article to be the 40 most expensive players at the start of the season. For the sake of comparison each year there are between 200 and 250 mid-rangers.
It is no surprise to see a cohort that large throw up 10-15 players who score well and therefore, it is far harder to identify the mid-rangers that will progress to gun status than it is to pick a gun that will deliver at his value.
For reference across 2017-19 the 120 guns filled 52% of the top-25 rankings for total points and 60% of the top-25 rankings for PPG average.
CONCLUSION
Despite costing far less than their high-priced competitors, mid-rangers have proven more than able to deliver top-10 seasons across 2017-19.
They also make you a profit, something the more expensive guns struggle to achieve.
But before you ditch the tried and tested ‘Guns and Cheapies’ approach bear in mind that guns dominate the top-tier of tables for both total season points and PPG averages.
If I were to draw any conclusions from all these stats and tables they are:
1. Paying a premium price is no guarantee of a top return, but it does offer a greater percentage of that return
2. Guns are worth the investment, particularly thanks to their better PPM performance
3. Mid-rangers can deliver big points, but their price can quickly spiral out of range so if you find one is on a tear early then don’t be afraid to bring them in
COMPLETE DATA TABLES
2019 OVERALL SCORE
2019 PPG AVERAGE (min 10 games)
2018 OVERALL SCORE
2018 PPG AVERAGE (min 10 games)
2017 OVERALL SCORE
2017 PPG AVERAGE (min 10 games)