KFC SuperCoach NRL 101: Basic tactics and strategy explained
In the first in our series delving into KFC SuperCoach NRL strategy we break down the game plan used by experienced players and why it works (most of the time).
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Welcome to our series in which I delve into the reasoning behind the tactics used in KFC SuperCoach NRL in an attempt to put some ‘Why’ around the advice often given on ‘How’ to play the game.
In part I I look at the predominant selection tactic of ‘Guns and Cheapies’, explain how to employ it and the mechanism of price changes.
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THERE’S MORE TO THE GAME THAN SCORING POINTS
I’m going to assume you know the basics of KFC SuperCoach NRL but just in case here’s the gist in 50 words or less: you have a salary cap to spend, you pick a squad of players that you can afford under that cap, players do NRL style stuff like make runs, tackles and scoring tries, points are awarded for doing stuff and if your team scores the most points you win.
Simple really. Well, yes and no.
Yes, points matter, but so does value.
Every SuperCoach starts with a team value capped at $9.8 million, but that cap can grow – and sadly shrink – and the more you cap grows the more you can spend on high scoring players.
Success demands that you split your priorities between scoring points AND increasing value as those that quickly grow their salary cap can buy better players. Coaches that focus solely on points will sit atop the overall tables early but will be left behind as the season progresses.
In short, while points are the ultimate arbiter of success, value is the vehicle by which we increase our capacity to afford players most likely to score those points.
HOW TO SCORE POINTS AND INCREASE VALUE
In three words: Guns and cheapies. It’s the accepted formula for SuperCoach success and here’s how it works.
Of the 25 players you pick to start the season you should aim to have at least seven ‘guns’ (players priced over $550K).
In past years I have aimed for nine guns in my starting side, but in the first draft of my 2020 side I took just seven as there are two players (David Fifita and Ryan Papenhuyzen) who fall just outside the category which I am confident will quickly join the gun gang and so I am happy to take them and spend the cash they free up elsewhere.
Your guns will score the vast bulk of your points – particularly early in the game when they will likely contribute 70% of your total score despite making up around half of your scoring compliment of 17 players
Cheapies (or cash cows/cows as they are also known) are there to make you money, and some points too – but the points are a bonus – what we really want early is the cash.
A cheapie’s low price means they have a lower barrier to increasing in value quickly and that’s exactly what we want.
To illustrate this see the table below.
Nikora scored just 10 points more than Klemmer across the first six rounds, but thanks to coming in to the game at the lowest price possible in 2019 he made his owners almost $250K more.
To be honest, Nikora was a raging success story. He was a cheapie that performed at or just below gun level from the very start of his NRL career.
To use a less extreme example compare the early season progress of an established forward, Nelson Asofa-Solomona (NAS) of the Storm, and borderline cheapie prop Junior Tatola of the Rabbitohs over the same span.
Asofa-Solomona outscored Tatola over the first six rounds, but it was the Rabbitoh who made his owners a healthy profit thanks to his low entry price while the Storm player actually lost money.
If you picked Tatola over NAS at the start of the season you would have slightly less points come the completion of round six, but considerably more money to spend once you had downgraded Tatola. You have sacrificed some points for money.
In our next strategy session I will attempt to identify some trade sweet spots that will serve as a guide to when you should sell a cheapie, but to summarise here your guns will keep the score ticking over and making sure you stay in touch with the overall leaderboard, and your cheapies will (hopefully) increase in value allowing you to buy more guns later.
But before you go a quick recap on how prices change week to week.
HOW PRICES CHANGE
A player, let’s call him ‘X’, has their price set at the beginning of the year based on his average points per game (PPG) in 2019.
Each week X is also allocated a break even (BE).
The BE is a target that X must reach in order to maintain his price.
As a general rule of thumb the higher price a player carries the higher his BE.
If X’s score falls short of his BE his price drops, match it and his price stays steady, exceed it and his price rises.
That’s pretty straight forward so let’s kick it up a notch.
X’s BE is not static, it goes up or down relative to his scores every week.
Putting it simply, if a player scores really well in week 1 his BE for week 2 will drop. If a player fails to reach his BE then his BE for the next week will rise.
To illustrate the point let’s take a look at James Tedesco’s price fluctuations from rounds 4-11 inclusive.*
* NB prices do not begin to change until the completion of round 3.
Apologies for forcing you to scroll a ways with that long table, but I wanted to illustrate a point and that is that prices can plunge and soar quickly.
Tedesco began the season priced at $689,000. After two low scores to start the season (23 in round 1 and 52 in round 2) he began round 3 at $671,200. Big scores followed and Tedesco’s price went to $741,000. Then came a few low scores (by Teddy’s high standards) and Tedesco reached a season low price of $625,700 heading in to round 9. For the record, Tedesco did not look back from this point of the season and went on to score four more centuries and five scores of 80+ to finish the season at $843,300.
NOW TO RECAP
Scoring points is the key to beating your mates, and if you’re lucky enough, claiming a cash prize.
However, SuperCoaches must ensure they keep growing their team value if they want to keep in touch with others over the back half of the season and picking the right cheapie is the key to doing that.
Which of course begs the question, having picked the right cheapies, when do you sell them, and what do you do with the profit?
I’m glad you asked that because that’s the topic of our next KFC NRL SuperCoach 101 strategy session.
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