Rob Sutherland reveals first draft of his SuperCoach NRL 2020 team
To celebrate the launch of Team Picker for the 2020 SuperCoach NRL season, Rob Sutherland reveals the first draft of the team he hopes to ride to redemption in the new season.
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It has begun! SuperCoach NRL Team Picker is live and I could not resist the urge to dive right in and select the first draft of my team for 2020.
Obviously the pre-season is going to see a fair few changes between now and the eve of round one, but I find the pre-season picker a great chance to start testing answers to the questions posed by new prices, positions and players available.
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For mine two key areas I want to test are how will CTW look absent so many 2RF/CTW options of 2019 and how to tackle the congested fullback position. I’ve thrown some darts at both positions and am sure I will keep tinkering.
I have also added some ‘Working Notes’ below my team talking through the mindset behind some selections and listing those players I had in earlier versions of my team but cut for one reason or another.
Without further ado, here’s my very first draft of what the Belalie Beasts will look like in 2020.
HOOKER
Damien Cook HOK ($705,500)
With Cameron McInnes battling back from injury, there are just two premium hookers available to start 2020 in Damien Cook and Cameron Smith. In my opinion you have to pick one (I explain why and run through the options if you insist on being contrary in my working notes below). Smith is the G.O.A.T. of SuperCoach hookers and he wrestled Father Time into submission last year with a big bounce in attacking stats resulting in a 10-point increase on his point per game average (74PPG) – all that while playing every game of the season. And despite this I’m going to pick Damien Cook at hooker. Cook’s base took a hit in 2019 with the edict from Wayne Bennett that he wanted the hooker to be caught less with the ball slashing his tackle bust and hit-up over eight metres numbers in half. This decline was offset by a spike in try assist numbers with Cook putting teammates through rather than trying to make holes in the defence himself. When it comes down to it, Smith has a big ace up his sleeve thanks to goalkicking duties, but Cook is a much younger man and at some point Smith has to slow down — right?
Blayke Brailey HOK ($201,000) Reserve 4
The departure of big brother Jayden (Knights) opens the door for Blayke Brailey to make the job of starting hooker at the Sharks his own. Where Jayden was a defensive workhorse, Brayden brings more attack to the role and he possesses a deft kicking game. A proven eighty-minute hooker, Brailey played the full game in all seven NSW Cup matches last year and also played 80 minutes for the Sharks in round 14 last year. The Sharks have recruited veteran Cameron King to serve as backup to Brailey in 2020 but I’d still expect the youngster to play 60 minutes. Having averaged just 22PPG last year Brailey is priced cheaply to start 2020 and looks sure to be one of the most popular cheapies to start the year.
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FRONT ROW FORWARD
Payne Haas FRF ($728,200)
To put Payne Haas’ season in some perspective the Brisbane giant’s 2019 PPG average of 78.4 was the second-best in the history of any true FRF* (beaten only by Andrew Fifita’s 80PPG in 2013) and the 21st best average of any player at any position ever (minimum 10 games). And it was his rookie season! Haas averaged more minutes per game (64 MPG) than any other FRF and despite his huge workload he maintained the seventh best points per minute (1.23PPM) of any FRF (again minimum of 10 games). His asking price puts a big dent in your salary cap to start the season but with a per-game average 12 points better than the next best at his position he’s pretty close to a must-have for mine.
David Klemmer FRF ($617,400)
David Klemmer was a picture of consistency in 2019 scoring more than 60 points in a sensational 81 per cent of games thanks largely to the second-best base points per game average, 59, in the league (behind Haas). The big unit punched out big minutes averaging 61MPG (at 1.09 PPM) and missed just three games all year – despite playing with ligament damage in his hand for the entire season and then fracturing a bone in his hand in Origin I. Klemmer does not have much attacking flair to his game but if you’re after a guy who will roll his sleeves up and give you a great safe base then he’s your guy.
Ryan James FRF/2RF ($354,700) (Reserve 2)
When he plays in the middle at prop, Ryan James digs in and delivers a solid base with attacking flair. When he plays on an edge in the second row James can go missing somewhat seemingly saving himself to play the full 80 minutes. Add to that the fact that James played just six games in 2019 before suffering a season-ending ACL injury and you may wonder why I’ve selected him. In three words, hope, faith and money. James is on the record as saying he should be back in full training by Christmas – I hope he’s not over-egging the pudding. James has also said his preferred role is through the middle in 2020 playing reduced minutes with more punch – I have faith that he will get his wish because if he does that’s when he scores best in SuperCoach. And, James is cheap, priced at a 38PPG average which he can comfortably exceed should he be fit and playing in the middle.
Peter Hola FRF ($202,600)
Hola monstered his way through the Queensland Cup competition with the Northern Pride last season, earning a call-up to the Cowboys to play five straight games to finish the season where he averaged 22PPG and 19MPG at a PPM of 1.16. He’ll struggle to crack the starting 13 of the Cowboys but could still be a decent slow money maker from the bench. If I need to downgrade here one bottom-dollar cheapie I have my eye on is Toby Rudolf at the Sharks.
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SECOND ROW FORWARD
James Fisher-Harris FRF/2RF ($615,700)
Fisher-Harris was asked to play big minutes last year (averaging 77 MPG which was an increase of almost 20MPG on 2018) and he did so moving between lock, prop and second row. Wherever he was asked to play he dug in making more tackles in 2019 than any other front rower and the fifth most of any player in the competition. JFH also has a sneakily effective offload game and doesn’t shy away from a hit-up. Lock is his preferred position and barring injuries he should play 80 minutes there each week for the Panthers. Last year JFH averaged 68.9PPG at lock. He’s no bargain but you’ve got to pay for quality.
Angus Crichton 2RF ($530,100)
The mighty Angus joined the Roosters in 2019 and while the move delivered a premiership for the Young Cherrypickers junior it took its toll on his SuperCoach output with a drop in average minutes per game (69 in 2019 as compared to 79 in 2018) and points (57PPG as compared to 69PPG). Crichton still scored well when playing the full 80 minutes, averaging 63PPG when playing out the game and tellingly 71PPG in the final six rounds of the regular season. This pick comes with a fair bit of risk and a close eye will have to be kept on team lineups and tactics, but for now I’m backing him to bounce back in 2020.
David Fifita 2RF ($501,900)
From round 18 onwards Fifita became an 80-minute player (82 thanks to extra-time in round 24) and in that eight-game span he busted out two tons and averaged 77PPG (42PPG in base and 14.5PPG in tackle busts!). Thanks to his reduced minutes off the bench over the first half of 2019, Fifita will be available for a significant discount on his 80-minute average and provided he avoids a suspension for his Bali nightclub hijinks I will lock him in to start the season.
Billy Magoulias 2RF ($221,700)
Given his NRL debut in 2019 Magoulias played two games off the bench averaging 27PPG in 28 MPG. However, a truer reflection of his ability comes from looking at his Canterbury Cup stats last year. Magoulias played 17 games with six starts at hooker (averaging 62MPG), eight starts at lock (72.5 MPG) one 80-minute stint at prop and two games off the bench (58.5 MPG). He busted 22 tackles, scored three tries, forced three drop outs, made 661 tackles (averaging 36 effective tackles per game) and averaged 84 metres per game. Magoulias has the motor to play big minutes and will provide excellent cover for young Blayke Brailey at hooker.
Pasami Saulo FRF/2RF ($184,900)
A bit of a holding name with Saulo sure to find it hard to crack into the Knights regular 17. However, there’s plenty of ability here, so much so that coach Michael Maguire sounded the youngster out to represent the Junior Kiwis last year but the big Newcastle product knocked back the invite to pursue his dream of playing Origin. Saulo has played six games in the NRL (three in 2018 and three in 2019) already and I’m, hoping he shows enough in the trials to add to that come round one of 2020.
Haumole Olakau’ata 2RF ($171,900)
Standing 196 centimetres and weighing in at 113kg, Haumole Olakau’atu is a monster of an edge second rower who looks sure to see some time in the NRL in 2020. In 16 Canterbury Cup appearances last season (nine in which he played the full 80 minutes), Olakau’ata scored four tries, busted 68 tackles, threw eight offloads and averaged more than 100 metres per game with a season high of 165 against Penrith in round 12. The big fella has some guile too as he displayed in round 10 against the Jets when he put on a chip and chase play on the fifth tackle before putting in a grubber kick for a try.
HALFBACK
Nathan Cleary HFB ($631,500)
I really agonised over this selection after being a happy Mitchell Moses owner in 2019. Moses scored the most points of any halfback last year and if I need to find $50K to upgrade elsewhere then I’ll likely be switching back to him but I’m Camp Cleary for now and this is why. Last year Cleary and James Maloney shared the playmaker duties and to my untrained eye the two got in each other’s way as often as they co-operated successfully. Maloney has departed the Panthers and the team is unquestionably Cleary’s to boss around the paddock in 2020. I’m anticipating a boost to try assist and linebreak assist numbers for Cleary in 2020 along with an increase in goalkicking opportunities (the Panthers scored just 67 tries in 2019 with only the Titans, Cowboys and Bulldogs scoring less).
George Williams HFB|5/8 ($333,800) Reserve 3
UK backs coming to Australia have not had the success of their forward counterparts, but if Williams can replicate his Super League form then he has a very SuperCoach friendly style of game. A willing runner with the ball, Williams made 408 runs in 29 Super League games last season, busting 122 tackles, breaking the line 18 times and offloading 46 times. Add to that 21 try assists and 14 tries and you have a player you really need to watch in the pre-season to see if he can bring that form to Australia because if he does he will be in my team and possibly an early season reserve.
FIVE-EIGHTH
Cameron Munster 5/8 ($644,400)
When Cameron Munster scored well in 2019 he scored very very well, but when he didn’t go large he was pretty disappointing. To put some numbers around that claim, Shaun Johnson is a renowned ‘rollercoaster’ and yet he failed to score 50 or more in just 23.5 per cent of games while Munster failed to pass 50 points in 38 per cent of games. That’s the bad, now the good – Munster topped 90 points six times last year including three triple-figure scores. It’s going to feel odd cheering the Storm playmaker on (as a NSW-born Roosters fan he has shredded my team on many an occasion) but that’s SuperCoach.
Phoenix Crossland 5/8 ($184,900)
I have to admit I don’t know too much about the rising Phoenix Crossland and have largely included him here for cost purposes and with the hope that he impresses enough in the trials to win the five-eighth position at the Knights. Crossland played just 11 minutes in a cameo effort off the bench last year and so gets in jsut above basement price.
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CENTRE/WING
Jamayne Isaako CTW/FLB ($420,000)
The Broncos brought Isaako to the club to be a fullback, and having served his apprenticeship on the wing, Brisbane coach Anthony Seibold has confirmed that the youngster will get his chance to make the fullback role his own in 2020. The positional move should be a win for Isaako as will kicking for goal full-time in 2019 (he lost the job for a couple of weeks to Kotoni Staggs but is unquestionably more accurate).
Zac Lomax CTW/FLB ($324,600)
After being shuffled between the bench, wing, centres and fullback last year, Lomax got two bits of good news in the off-season. Firstly Lomax signed the longest deal in St George Illawarra history and then coach Paul McGregor confirmed he would give Lomax the first crack at securing the fullback job at the club. A career 81% goalkicker in the NRL (albeit from a small sample size of 32 attempts), Lomax is also the man most likely to get the kicking tee to start 2020. All that for under $325K? Shut up and take my money.
Billy Smith CTW ($290,400)
Smith played two games for the Roosters in 2019, scoring a try in each game. He is the man most likely to fill Latrell Mitchell’s shoes at centre for the reigning premiers – provided those shoes are vacant. He played seven games in Canterbury Cup last year scoring 10 tries. A big bodied type and willing worker, Smith averaged more than 155 metres and better than five tackle busts per game in the Canterbury Cup. Thanks to the two games last year he’s a little awkwardly priced, but should Mitchell find a new home for 2020, then Smith should absolutely be in your side from round one.
Tommy Talau CTW ($208,200)
After playing just the one regular game in 2019, the former Australian Schoolboy is tipped to claim the starting centre position at the Wests Tigers left vacant by the departure of Esan Marsters. Talau played 10 games of Canterbury Cup for the Magpies in 2019 averaging over 100 metres per game and scoring a try in each game from round 15-19. Starting CTW cheapies are money-making gold in SuperCoach so watch the pre-season games closely.
Bradman Best ($240,700)
The exits of first-grade regulars Jesse Ramien and Shaun Kenny-Dowall open two backline spots at the Knights, virtually assuring Bradman Best a spot for Round 1. The Central Coast junior weighs in at a hefty 103kg and showed in three games last year he is not physically intimidated by playing against seasoned men in the NRL (rare for an 18-year-old). Best played three games last season for an average of 37 points, but should start close to bottom dollar once discounts are applied.
Corey Allan CTW/FLB ($231,800)\Isaac Lumelume CTW ($171,900)
These are strictly place holder selections at this stage and nothing should be read into either name.
FULLBACK
Valentine Holmes ($563,700)
Picking a guy who is coming back to the game after a year in the USA playing in the NFL is positively perilous. That said, a look through Holmes’ stats when playing fullback in 2018 give you an indication of the reward that is on offer. Holmes started at fullback for the Sharks 15 times in 2018 averaging 78.7. If he were to return to close to that sort of form, Holmes’ price would quickly sore to $700K+. One last point here and it’s that Holmes’ big run of scores was boosted by the fact that he took over the goalkicking duties at the Sharks for the final five games of the regular season and slotted 21 of 28 attempts over that span. There is competition for the role a the Cowboys, if Holmes wins it his stocks are set to soar.
Ryan Papenhuyzen ($508,200) Reserve 1
The Storm have signalled that Ryan Papenhuyzen’s peripatetic days are over and that in 2020 the livewire speedster will have a permanent home as Melbourne’s starting fullback — and about time too says many a SuperCoach. In 2019, Papenhuyzen started five games at fullback for scores of 87, 71, 123, 98 and 85 and an average of 92.8. Now, even the most optimistic owner is not going to expect that level of output to continue, but even a 30 per cent decline would still result in a 60+ average over the season and at just a tick over $500K I’m all in.
WORKING NOTES
HOOKER
The position is dominated by two men (I want to say three because I’m a Cameron McInnes fan but to be fair he’s just off the two big names here) with Cameron Smith and Damien Cook so far ahead of their competition at the top of the hooker price point that if you did not start 2019 with one of the two you quickly fell behind at the position. McInnes was super consistent last year and he could make the battle for top place at the position a legitimate three-way battle when he splits time between hooker and backrow this year, but he will likely be under done at the start of the season after suffering a bad leg injury in round 24 last season and so I think you must find the cash to fit either Cook or Smith into your starting squad.
FRONT ROW
I was originally running with my two gun FRF and two bench FRF cheapies. However, if one of my gun FRF was injured I had no backup and would have to burn a trade. I like the balance of having Ryan James as my FRF3. If he is back to big minutes then he is a more than serviceable FRF2 for a short span. If I need to move a gun up to FRF I can swap James and Fisher-Harris.
SECOND ROW
Obviously I’m pretty weak in the second-row with Billy Magoulias as my 2RF4. I think the move is sustainable IF he picks up a heap of those middle rotation minutes vacated by Paul Gallen and Matt Prior. I originally had Jake Trbojevic as my 2RF2, but when I decided to upgrade Shaun Johnson to Cameron Munster I had to find some cash and Jurbo was the man to go. For the record I have had the guys below in my team in previous iterations and pending trial form they may return:
Matt Eisenhuth: Frees up $130K to get a dual position (FRF/2RF) workhorse who averaged 60PPG in those games he played 60+ minutes across the 2018/19 seasons. With the Tigers scrambling to fill several positions if Eisenhuth finally locks down big minutes then he’s a solid pick-up who can do you a job through the first half os the season and make you a decent profit.
Luciano Leilua: Frees up $150K and brings in a player with plenty of upside. Leilua punched out a PPM of 1.13 which was enough to rate him 16th of those players who scored a minimum of 1000 points in 2019. The points, and PPM, did not drop off when Leilua was required to play big minutes; in the seven games he played 50+ minutes, Leilua averaged 63.1 MPG and 63.7 PPM. Those numbers compare very favourably with the likes of David Klemmer (61 MPG & 66 PPG) and Tevita Pangai Junior (60MPG and 58 PPG) – though I hasten to add those are season-long outputs not just seven games as per Leilua. Having moved to the Tigers for 2020, Leilua has a decent chance of making an edge his own this season, and should he do so then he looms as a mid-ranger with big upside.
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PLAYERS I HAD BUT DISCARDED
Jake Trbojevic 2RF ($583,900)
I did not originally have ‘Jurbo’ in my team, but when I went to make one last trade I saw that grabbing him would use up my salary cap to the dollar and that seemed like a message from the SuperCoach gods that I could not ignore. That said, the move comes with plenty of trepidation. Trbojevic was not ‘bad’ in 2019, averaging 63PPG thanks almost exclusively to his relentless workrate in the middle which saw him average 58PPG in base points last year. However, the Manly lock’s attacking and power stats fell right away with declines in tries, tackle busts, offloads, linebreaks and linebreak assists. The concern is that this is a harbinger of how coach Des Hasler, who retook the reins at Brookvale in 2019, intends to use Trbojevic going forward. Whatever the cause the drop off was bad for Trbojevic’s ceiling in 2019 with just two scores in the 80s (and those only just — they were 80 and 81) in 2019 as compared to six in 2018 including two triple-figure efforts.
Jarome Luai HFB|5/8 ($257,400)
James Maloney’s exit leaves a huge hole at the Panthers and Jarome Luai has already been nominated by Penrith coach Ivan Cleary as the man to get first shot at making the No. 6 jersey his own. Luai played four games at 5/8 last year averaging 46.8. Priced at a 20-point discount to that average, I’m tempted to take Luai in place of Englishman George Williams and use the $80,000 saving to upgrade some cheapies and will be watching both closely in the trials.
Shaun Johnson HFB|5/8 ($585,500)
I wanted to ride the ‘SJ’ rollercoaster again but in the end I couldn’t do it. As I mention above, by some measure, Johnson was more reliable than Munster, and he is a reliable half who I believe attracts unfair criticism. Plenty accused Johnson of having a dud of a year in 2019 as he struggled to both settle at a new club and through injury – and yet he still finished with a season average of 63PPG. Hmm, maybe I’ve talked myself back on to the rollercoaster...
Tristan Sailor FLB/CTW ($247,200)
A backline spot is open following the exit of Gareth Widdop (Super League). Zac Lomax will be given first crack at the No. 1 jersey, but the son of Wendell Sailor is running for a wing spot alongside fellow 2019 revelation Jason Saab. Sailor averaged 43.5 in three games last year, but should drop into the borderline cheapie range once discounts are applied for a reduced number of games. Sailor was impressive when given an NRL opportunity in the final three rounds, notching a try, linebreak and six tackle busts.