James O’Doherty: Fairfield Mayor Frank Carbone could cost ALP an election win

Labor booted popular now-independent mayor Frank Carbone from the party in 2016. Is he about to return as leader Chris Minns’ worst nightmare at the state election?

When Chris Minns stood alongside Fairfield Mayor Frank Carbone in November to announce Labor would rebuild Fairfield Hospital, it was as if journalists had been invited to a meeting of the mutual appreciation society.

Minns said it was “wonderful” of Carbone to make the time. Carbone, in turn, commended Minns for being “really proactive” in finding money for his area.

Carbone had been lobbying Labor behind the scenes to tip in money for his local hospital, so it was good manners for Minns to include him in the announcement.

But there was also a side benefit.

Having Carbone at the announcement, Labor sources say, was in part an attempt to extend the hand of friendship to the popular independent mayor they booted from the party in 2016.

Ever since Labor’s Fairfield MP Guy Zangari announced he would retire from politics, party insiders have been petrified that Carbone — or a member from his team — would run for the Western Sydney seat.

Labor has seen that film before and it didn’t like the ending.

Frank Carbone helped Dai Le to win against Kristina Keneally in the federal poll, now he looks set to give Labor a scare in the state election.

Carbone was the driving force behind independent candidate, now MP, Dai Le when she ran against Kristina Keneally in Fowler at the federal poll.

Le flogged the candidate parachuted in from Scotland Island to take what was once a Labor stronghold, in one of the biggest upsets of the campaign.

The result should have set off warning bells in Sussex Street. The Fowler result was a black mark for NSW Labor amid Anthony Albanese’s triumph.

Yet, unbelievably, NSW Labor has been caught flat-footed, again, by failing to select a candidate for Fairfield.

The party only preselected a candidate for Cabramatta last week, despite knowing for more than a year that local MP Nick Lalich was going to retire.

Now Carbone is all but certain to put his hat in the ring in Cabramatta and run an independent in Fairfield.

Chris Minns needs to win at least nine extra seats to govern with a majority. Picture: Richard Dobson

He criticised Labor this week for only making one promise for his area — the $115 million for the hospital — and said locals were not getting the attention they deserve.

Labor holds Fairfield on a margin of 16.7 per cent and Cabramatta on a margin of 19.5 per cent.

But those margins do not mean much in the face of a strong independent candidate and a retiring local member.

Holding these heartland seats is critical if Labor wants to have any hope of winning the election.

Minns already needs at least nine seats for a majority.

In a bid to manage expectations, Labor operatives are now talking about how they only need to claim five seats from the Coalition to be in discussions for a crossbench-backed minority government.

Despite what the betting markets say, a Labor victory — either in its own right or in minority government — is nowhere near a certainty.

A Roy Morgan poll released on Tuesday showed that in January, support for the Coalition increased 1.5 points to 35 per cent, leading Labor (down one point to 32.5 per cent primary vote support).

Those primary vote numbers are low; support for other parties and independents is also at 32.5 per cent.

Premier Dominic Perrottet has started the year strongly but February has not been as kind to the Coalition’s campaign. Last week ended in a horror show for Perrottet.

Dominic Perrottet had a turbulent time of it last week. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

The Premier lost one of his most senior ministers, and closest confidants in cabinet, when Finance Minister Damien Tudehope was forced to quit after The Telegraph revealed he held $65,000 in Transurban shares via a superannuation account.

He then lost MP Peter Poulos to a porn scandal dating back five years, and faced a factional civil war over who would replace him.

Also looming in the background is a parliamentary inquiry into issues of integrity on Hills Shire council, including the influence of developers and their interactions with MPs and councillors.

Two of Perrottet’s brothers — Charles and Jean-Claude — have been drawn into that inquiry because both, allegedly, have been intrinsically involved in Liberal Party machinations in the area.

The Premier lashed out at reporters last week for asking him valid questions about why his brothers were hiding from the committee’s attempts to call them as witnesses.

“Leave my family out of it, seriously, leave my family out of it. I’m here elected to represent the people of NSW,” he said.

But as Premier, and the leader of his party, it is right that Perrottet is asked about prominent figures in the party, whoever they are.

Despite Perrottet’s claims that the inquiry is a “smear” campaign from Labor, it was launched after one of his own MPs made extraordinary corruption allegations under parliamentary privilege.

The biggest threat to Perrottet is from disgruntled members of his own side.

After 12 years in power, internal division is the kind of baggage Labor is relying on to convince voters the Coalition’s time is up.

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