NSW election: Coalition regaining ground, while Labor clings to slight lead

Dominic Perrottet has gained ground in an opinion poll released 32 days before the state election, but Labor is clinging on to a tight lead.

Dominic Perrottet has gained ground in the all-important month leading up to the NSW state election, however Chris Minns’ Labor Party is still slightly in the lead.

A new Roy Morgan poll measuring voting intention for the month of January showed Labor leading the Coalition 52 per cent to 48 per cent, with the NSW Liberals and Nationals gaining three points since December.

In a survey of 1147 potential voters, the Coalition led the poll in terms of primary votes, increasing their lead by 1.5 points to 35 per cent, while Labor lost a point, achieving 32.5 per cent. Support for the minor and independent parties like the Greens, One Nation and the Animal Justice Party sat steady at 32.5 per cent, which was down by 0.5 points.

Labor maintained a narrow lead against the Coalition, according to a recent poll. Picture: NewsWire

Roy Morgan CEO, Michelle Levine said the results proved the March 25 election was still “up for grabs”, with a nearly perfect three-way split between each major party and the independents.

“This result is very similar to last year’s federal election, when the ALP won government despite receiving only 32.6 per cent of the primary vote, even less than the L-NP on 35.7 per cent.”

In state elections, voters only have to list their first preference, instead of numbering every box on the ballot paper, as they would in a federal election.

“The OPV (optional preferential voting) system allows voters to simply number their ballot paper with a ‘1’ for their preferred candidate to register a valid vote,” Ms Levine said.

“Analysis of prior NSW state elections shows around 50 per cent of voters direct preferences to exhaustion while the other 50 per cent of voters don’t.”

Ms Levine also noted a 2 per cent increase for fringe party One Nation, which increased to a 24-year high of 6.5 per cent. She said this could be due to former Labor mayor turned One Nation candidate, Tania Mihailuk who will be running on the party’s ticket for the upper house.

“Mihailuk has represented the seat of Bankstown in the western suburbs since 2011 before resigning from the ALP in 2022 and joining One Nation in mid-January,” Ms Levine said.

NSW Labor have yet to announce a candidate for their heartland southwestern electorate of Fairfield, while local lawyer Tri Vo won preselection for Cabramatta. Former Labor member, and popular Fairfield Mayor Frank Carbone is believed to be planning a run for the seat as an independent.

Opposition Leader Chris Minns also hinted the party will announce a new candidate for Monaro in a matter of days. This comes after former Raiders star Terry Campese withdrew after a video was leaked of him attending a sex-themed party.

Originally published as NSW election: Coalition regaining ground, while Labor clings to slight lead