Scott Morrison’s coalition of the dwindling
AS the Coalition’s hopes of clinging on to majority government quickly fade, former PM Malcolm Turnbull slipped out of Sydney Airport today to avoid questions over the weekend’s Wentworth by-election disaster.
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AS the Coalition’s hopes of clinging on to majority government quickly fade, former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull slipped out of Sydney Airport and avoided questions over the weekend’s Wentworth disaster.
Camera crews were waiting at several exits for the former prime minister and his wife Lucy to disembark from his Qantas flight but he took an outside exit — the same exit Prince Harry and Meghan Markle used last week — before hopping into a waiting car just before 7am.
A passenger on-board Mr Turnbull’s flight said he saw him being taken through a side door once they landed.
Mr Turnbull controversially travelled to New York where he owns a luxurious apartment after he was ousted in August and refused to help the Liberal party campaign in the Wentworth by-election.
He reportedly delayed his return to Australia by two days to not distract Liberal candidate Dave Sharma’s unsuccessful push for office, who looks set for defeat by independent Kerryn Phelps.
Mr Turnbull’s return comes as Prime Minister Scott Morrison faces chaos and recriminations in Parliament today as the Coalition’s hopes of clinging on to majority government quickly fade.
Dr Phelps appears set to claim victory in the Wentworth by-election despite strong postal vote results for Liberal Dave Sharma throwing the outcome in doubt early yesterday.
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But Liberal MPs and party members helping count the votes were last night conceding defeat for a second day in a row after counting errors in two polling booths handed Dr Phelps a commanding lead of 1616 at 7.30pm.
Phelps ‘more confident’
Speaking for the first time on Monday after yesterday’s voting count scare, where the Independent briefly feared she would be overtaken by Mr Sharma on postal and pre-poll votes, Dr Phelps told Sky News: “I’m feeling a lot more confident than what I was 24 hours ago.
“We still have a little way to go but it’s looking better than it was,” she said.
“I will not be declaring it (the result) until all of the votes have been counted and the AEC declares it.”
Asked again whether she would consider moving a motion of no-confidence against the government, Dr Phelps said: “I just have to wait and see what the no-confidence motion would look like.
“I’ve just run a very intense campaign to run for Wentworth, now we’re waiting for the result of that and so I think it would be a bit premature to talk about any motions,” she added.
Asked if she might secure a pro quo with the prime minister, Dr Phelps said she hadn’t had any conversations about it.
“I had a text message and he was basically saying the counting was still going on so we haven’t had the chance to have a discussion take place,” she said.
“I’ll certainly be having conversations with as many people as I possibly can if I am elected and if the numbers go that way over the next few days I’ll be setting up conversations with as many people as I can and certainly I’ll be wanting to speak with the prime Minister.
“My first order of business will be to get the kids and their families off Nauru for humanitarian reasons.”
The Morrison government’s hopes of boosting investment in coal-fired power and a crackdown on migrant welfare will be thrown in doubt if it loses control on the floor of Parliament.
Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton is likely to face a fresh push to refer him to the High Court over whether his family’s stake in child care centres makes him ineligible to sit in Parliament.
Anger among Coalition MPs was split, with some blaming Malcolm Turnbull for quitting Parliament and refusing to help the Wentworth campaign while others claimed this shows the former prime minister should have never been rolled.
If Dr Phelps does snare victory, the Coalition will be one short of a majority with 75 seats. Labor holds 69 and there will be six MPs on the crossbench.
On a two-candidate preferred basis Dr Phelps led Mr Sharma last night 51.1 per cent to 48.9.
Liberals’ aftermath
If the Coalition loses control on the floor of the House of Representatives, key Morrison government initiatives — including a crackdown on migrant welfare — will be at risk.
It’s also likely that Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton will face a fresh push to refer him to the High Court to determine if his family’s stake in childcare centres makes him ineligible to sit in Parliament.
Anger over the likely result was split among Coalition MPs, with some blaming Malcolm Turnbull for quitting Parliament and refusing to help campaign and others claiming it showed the former prime minister should never have been rolled.
If Dr Phelps snares victory the Coalition will be one seat short of a majority with 75 seats. Labor holds 69 and there will be six crossbench MPs.
On a two-candidate preferred basis Prof Phelps led Mr Sharma last night 51.1 per cent to 48.9.
The Prime Minister said yesterday the Wentworth result showed the Coalition had a lot of work to do to win back its voters who were outraged about the leadership spill.
“Liberal voters expressed their anger at the parliamentary Liberal Party. There is no doubt about that. And we copped that fairly on the chin.
“What is for us to do is to soberly look and understand and acknowledge the anger that has been vented at the parliamentary Liberal Party by Liberal voters, in particular. And it is our task to win them back.”
Mr Sharma last night warned the government against changing course based on the Wentworth result.
“I don’t think you can extrapolate Wentworth onto the nation of Australia,” he said on Sky News. “There were some unique characteristics of this by-election including the circumstances in which it came about.”
Mr Sharma said the main lesson should be that voters were unhappy with “political instability and the change of leader in the last few months and the manner in which it was done”.
“Australians are sick of this, I’m sick of this,” he said.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg conceded climate change was an important issue in Wentworth but the results would not change the government’s direction on energy policy.
“Our policies have been settled for some time in relation to climate change,” he said. “We will reduce our emissions — yes, we have several policies — but we will not, as Labor will do, put people’s power bills up.”
Crossbenchers were yesterday tight-lipped on whether they would promise the government confidence but were in agreement that further turmoil was not in the country’s best interests.
Labor would need to convince all crossbenchers and at least one Coalition MP to vote for a no-confidence motion for it to succeed as it requires an absolute majority.
Action against Mr Dutton would not require a government MP to cross the floor. Dr Phelps yesterday said she would consider supporting a High Court referral of the Home Affairs Minister.
Queensland marginal seat MP Michelle Landry said she was “annoyed” at Mr Turnbull after he quit Parliament and did not support Mr Sharma’s campaign.
One MP said that the Wentworth result showed the transaction costs of rolling Mr Turnbull were high and would likely be felt in marginal seats.
Down to the wire
ALMOST 6000 postal votes sent out to Wentworth voters are yet to be returned and they could have a significant impact on the result.
Only 6890 of the 12,788 postal votes sent out have been received by the Australian Electoral Commission.
Historically about 70 per cent of postal votes are returned.
Based on that trend about another 2000 votes are likely to be included in the final count.
The AEC also conducts checks on every vote cast to make sure it has been properly accounted for.
MPs queue to make minority deal
THE Coalition is braced for a raft of demands from crossbench MPs to ensure their support for any minority government.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison did not lobby crossbenchers yesterday despite none having pledged their backing for a minority Coalition government.
If independent Kerryn Phelps wins the Wentworth by-election, the government will hold just 75 seats in the House of Representatives — losing its one-seat majority.
South Australian Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie said she would hold the government to account on climate change and getting refugee children off Nauru.
“The crossbench and the nation definitely wants the government to handle those two issues,” she said. “I will not hold the Prime Minister to ransom but, as a crossbencher, it’s my job to hold them to account.”
Bob Katter said he did not want “further instability” but has laid out a list of priorities which he wants considered. Independent Cathy McGowan said she would not comment until today, while Andrew Wilkie refused to guarantee support.
PM still focused on abuse apology
AS Prime Minister Scott Morrison apologises to victims of institutional child sexual abuse in Canberra today, he will announce a national museum to ensure their suffering is not forgotten.
Mr Morrison will also commit to publicly reporting government progress on implementing recommendations from the royal commission into institutional sex abuse annually for the next five years, and a national centre to raise awareness and understanding of the impact of child sexual abuse.
Despite the weekend’s Wentworth by-election, Mr Morrison said he was focused on the apology.
“I am thinking about those Australians (victims and survivors) and what they are feeling,” he said.
“It is my job, as prime minister, to convey the sorry that they have wanted to hear for so long.”
The museum and centre will be planned in consultation with sex abuse survivor groups.