Sharri Markson: Brutal swing could haunt Coalition for years
THERE are only seven seats held by the Coalition that are classed as safer than Wentworth in Sydney’s east.
Opinion
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THERE are only seven seats held by the Coalition that are classed as safer than Wentworth in Sydney’s east.
The fact the Liberal Party is desperately relying on every last postal vote to try to hold on to one of its safest seats, after suffering the greatest swing against it at any by-election in the Coalition government’s history, is astounding.
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Yes, the circumstances are unique in that Wentworth is home to Malcolm Turnbull, who was rolled as prime minister by conservative MPs.
For this, the Morrison government anticipated voters would give it a whack.
But Prime Minister Scott Morrison was initially so unconcerned about holding on to Wentworth that he welcomed Turnbull’s decision to quit parliament, preferring to have the distraction of the former leader out of the way as he embarked on his prime ministership.
He was relying on the fact that it was a Liberal seat and Liberal voters would be loath to risk an early Bill Shorten government, or deprive Morrison of his one-seat governing majority.
He severely underestimated the depth of voter anger towards the Liberal Party.
Disregard the spin that the result in Wentworth is not so bad because Turnbull’s primary vote in 2004 was lower than Dave Sharma’s — Wentworth has been held by the party since 1946.
On average, a government suffers a 5 per cent swing against it at a by-election.
The fact Wentworth’s 17.7 per cent buffer was wiped out is terrifying to Liberal MPs — and this will remain the case regardless of whether Kerryn Phelps wins by a few hundred votes, as is likely the case, or Dave Sharma scrapes through when more postal votes flow in.
This 19 per cent swing in Wentworth has been as shocking to Liberals as the Longman result that partly prompted the leadership challenge.
Even if the anger at dumping Turnbull accounts for half of the swing, there are 42 seats held by the Coalition on margins of 10 per cent or less.
It reinforces how difficult — perhaps impossible — it will be for the government to hold on to power at the next federal election.
Never mind the government picking up seats — it will struggle to even maintain the status-quo of a hung parliament.
The Wentworth result will redefine how the leaders act over the next six months.
Shorten will become even more confident of winning office than he already is, while Morrison’s policy direction will be even more desperate to please, as he tries, in vain, to play catch-up.