Wentworth by-election: Candidates predict close call as polls open
KERRYN Phelps has described talk of her toppling the Morrison government as “pathetic scaremongering”, as polls closed in the Wentworth by-election she is expected to win.
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KERRYN Phelps has described talk of her toppling the Morrison government as “pathetic scaremongering”, as polls closed in the Wentworth by-election she is expected to win.
The high-profile independent is widely tipped to take the blue-ribbon Liberal seat - vacated by former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull - on Labor, independent and minor party preferences.
Liberal candidate Dave Sharma was accosted on the hustings by protesters and confronted with leaked internal polling suggesting the party’s heading for historic defeat but he still insists he’s competitive.
Losing the seat will take away the coalition’s one-seat majority and force Prime Minister Scott Morrison to seek the confidence of the crossbench. On Twitter, Mr Sharma - a former ambassador to Israel - said “a vote for me would avoid the risks of a hung parliament”.
But Dr Phelps insists she doesn’t pose an existential risk to the coalition government.
“That’s just pathetic scaremongering,” she said.
“If the government is talking about instability we know what’s created the instability.”
She argues the outcome may not even be known on Saturday night. “I don’t think anyone can be confident - we don’t really know how this is going to turn out,” the local GP told AAP.
“I’m trying to turn around a massive majority and I’m doing that by focusing on the issues that are important.”
ABC election analyst Antony Green says Mr Sharma needs a primary vote above 45 per cent to stand a chance of replacing Mr Turnbull, who declined to play a role in the campaign, as the local MP.
“We’re competitive but I think it’s going to be close,” Mr Sharma said.
“It’s a pretty hard race to model with 16 candidates and multiple preferential flows and a strong independent.”
Mr Turnbull received 42 per cent of the primary vote then and won on preferences.
“That’s the benchmark,” Mr Sharma said.
Labor candidate Tim Murray, the only one of the three main candidates who actually lives in the seat, predicts voters will savage the coalition.
“The queues are huge which usually means they’ve got their cricket bats out for the incumbent, so I’m expecting to see quite a large swing here today,” he said. Turnbull ally Craig Laundy said more than half the voters he witnessed had shunned Liberal how-to-vote cards at booths.
— AAP
AT THE POLLING BOOTHS
FORMER Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s sister Christine Forster weighed into the Wentworth by-election today handing out how-to-vote cards.
“It’s important that people who have traditionally voted Liberal put whatever disappointments about what has happened in Canberra aside and stick with the party,” Ms Forster told The Sunday Telegraph.
She said there has been the usual “argy bargy” on the booths.
“Obviously Potts Point votes more to the left but I think the mood has been pretty good.”
Protesters had earlier swamped Liberal candidate Dave Sharma at a polling booth in Rose Bay shortly after polls opened in the Wentworth by-election this morning.
Demonstrators demanding stronger action on climate change mobbed the former Israel ambassador and his wife as they greeted voters in Sydney’s inner east.
Internal polling has revealed Mr Sharma’s primary vote could be below 40 per cent, which would not be enough to withstand a challenge from leading Independent candidate Kerryn Phelps who will benefit from strong preferences flows.
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If the Government loses the seat it will also lose its one seat majority in the House of Representatives meaning it would need to rely on crossbench MPs to pass legislation.
Mr Sharma told The Sunday Telegraph he was taking polls, predicting a Liberal loss, with a “grain of salt”.
“We’re competitive but I think it’s going to be close,” Mr Sharma said.
Kerryn Phelps has swatted away attempts by the Liberals to smear her as a destabilising force in minority government.
Ms Phelps, who was meeting voters and supporters at Bellevue Hill Primary School this morning, said Liberal-authorised posters outside polling booths are not an issue for her campaign.
She was seen taking photos of the posters this morning, which warn against a hung parliament.
“It’s very good that they have wrapped all the of the polling booths in my colours,” Ms Phelps told The Sunday Telegraph.
“The pamphlets have annoyed people. I think the Liberals are trying to play down expectations for themselves. We’ve run a clean campaign.”
More than 100,000 voters will pick a replacement for dumped prime minister Malcolm Turnbull in the Coalition’s first electoral test today.
The inner-Sydney electorate has been held by the conservative party at every election since federation, but senior Government ministers were privately warning that the Liberals were heading for an electoral defeat yesterday.
“It’s gone,” one Government frontbencher told The Sunday Telegraph.
In a sign of defeat, only two Government Cabinet ministers are expected to be on polling booths in Sydney’s east today.
Mr Sharma has faced a difficult lead up to today’s poll as the Morrison Government lurched from crisis to crisis over the past fortnight.
The Government attempted to announce a number of election sweeteners to shore up the Liberal vote including a controversial plan to move Australia’s embassy to west Jerusalem. But the policy shift prompted a diplomatic backlash from Indonesia where officials have threatened to “adjust” policies towards Australia if the embassy in moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Greens candidate Dominic Wy Kanak, who was on the polling booth at Glenmore Rd in Paddington, said they “have had a pretty good feeling whenever people are taking the Greens material”.
“The clear message I’m getting from handing out is that climate change is a big issue, then refugees and along with that is the Aboriginal justice issue,” he said.
“I think that just shows the strong social justice conscience at this electorate.
“It’s been a really interesting campaign; a by-election like no other.”
COALITION’S BAD NEWS WEEK
The fallout came in a disastrous week for Coalition which was dogged by simmering leadership tensions as Nationals MPs weigh up whether to move against party leader, Michael McCormack.
Environment Minister Melissa Price was also forced to deny accusations she offended a Pacific nation’s leader in a Canberra restaurant when she allegedly accused the region was “always” asking for cash.
Mr Sharma denied it would influence the vote saying all campaigns have to deal with “noise and distractions” in Canberra.
“The voters are concerned about issues that really matter to them and their life.”
“You run a campaign in the circumstances you got”.
Dr Phelps, the former Australian Medical Association boss, has guaranteed she would not block government supply saying she had “no intention of bringing the government down”.
Minister Scott Morrison hit the hustings in Wentworth yesterday, seizing on comments Dr Phelps made during a Sky News interview on Friday when she repeatedly refused to rule out a vote against the Morrison Government on a motion of no confidence.
“The lead independent candidate Kerryn Phelps on multiple occasions couldn’t even say she’d support a confidence motion,” Mr Morrison warned yesterday.
“That can throw the entire government into a lot of uncertainty. I know there’s been a lot of instability and uncertainty but voting for an independent will only make that worse.”
Mr Morrison is not expected to campaign in Wentworth today.
TURNBULL’S GHOST HAUNTS WENTWORTH
In the final days of the campaign, senior Government MPs lobbied ex-PM Malcolm Turnbull to campaign for Mr Sharma but Mr Turnbull will be in Singapore today, visiting son Alex. During the week he “liked” a post on twitter backing Dr Phelps before undoing the move.
Mr Turnbull’s son, Alex, who previously backed Labor candidate Tim Murray also made a late plea for voters in Wentworth to vote for Dr Phelps.
Asked about the protesters targeting Mr Sharma, Mr Murray said: “It’s a democracy and people can do that. Activists have a right to take action “.
Voters across the electorate have today been sinking the boot into the Liberals for ousting the former PM.
“The Liberals have definitely gone down the pecking order after what happened to Malcolm,” one voter at Bronte said.
“ I thought it was very sneaky the way they got rid of him.
“And it is always nice to have a local member who is also the Prime Minister.
“I don’t know very much about Dave Sharma.”
THE VOICE SCOMO DREADS TO HEAR
William Klare is the voice of Wentworth voters that Prime Minister Scott Morrison will be dreading to hear.
Up until now, the 30-year-old from Bondi has voted Liberal but today voted in another direction in protest of what he sees as the party’s failings and the treatment of former Prime Minister and Wentworth MP Malcolm Turnbull.
“I did used to vote Liberal but now I’ve gone the opposite way,” Mr Klare said on Saturday, shortly after casting his vote at Bondi Surf Bathers Life Saving Club.
“Unfortunately the (Liberal) party has gone towards an ultra conservative position, is in disarray and can’t get anything done,” he said.
And then there is the Malcolm factor for the seat, which is critical for the Morrison government holding on to its majority.
“Yeah, that is definitely a factor,” Mr Klare said. “He was hamstrung in his ability to get things done and the party showed its true colours of being run by factions.”