Liberal polling tighter than Scott Morrison admits in Wentworth
EXCLUSIVE: While Prime Minister Scott Morrison predicts defeat in today’s Wentworth by-election, internal party polling obtained by The Saturday Telegraph shows the Liberals are faring better than they admit.
NSW
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THE Liberal Party’s stronghold hangs in the balance today with Prime Minister Scott Morrison predicting defeat in the Wentworth by-election and preparing for minority government.
But internal party polling, obtained by The Saturday Telegraph, shows the Liberals are faring better in the contest in Sydney’s wealthiest electorate than they have admitted, with a primary vote of 39 per cent, although this is still not an outright winnable position.
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Conceding the Liberal Party is facing a loss in the seat held by Malcolm Turnbull before his resignation from Parliament, Mr Morrison has begun preparations for minority government, which include his likely decision to keep Liberal MP Tony Smith as Speaker of the House and rely on crossbenchers Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter to pass legislation.
Asked whether Mr Sharma (below) was staring down the barrel of defeat, Mr Morrison said: “I think the expectations are clearly set in that direction, absolutely.
“There has been high expectations that this is a seat that cannot be lost by the Liberal Party — I have never thought that,” he said. “The electoral maths are pretty simple — whoever finishes second as an independent, doesn’t matter if they’re 10 or 15 points or anything like that behind, the way the preferential voting system works is that they can come over the top and actually win.”
Independent candidate Dr Kerryn Phelps who the Liberals expect to emerge the victor today, has backed away from comments that she could support a no-confidence motion, declaring she would help the Coalition stay in power until the federal election due next year.
“I’ve said that I think governments should serve their full term and there is an election in the middle of next year and that’s when the Australian people should decide who their next government should be,” she said. “Why would I go through all this now only to have to turn around to do it all again?”
If she wins Dr Phelps said her priorities were “getting kids off Nauru”, climate change, the independence of the ABC and arguing against changes to superannuation.
Earlier this week, polling conducted by the Liberal Party collapsed to as low as 41 to 59 two party-preferred. However, tracking polling has improved since then.
It prompted desperate pleas to Mr Turnbull to record a message of support for Mr Sharma. When he declined, former PM John Howard was brought in to campaign. The polling also prompted Mr Morrison to announce he would consider moving Australia’s embassy from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem, in a bid to secure the support of Jewish voters, who comprise 12 per cent of the electorate.
Labor leader Bill Shorten has not visited Wentworth once during the entire campaign, in the hope his candidate, Tim Murray, will not finish ahead of Dr Phelps, so that she can receive preferences and deprive Mr Morrison of his governing majority.