Moment it all went wrong for Peter Dutton
Anthony Albanese has been re-elected for a second term after delivering a crushing defeat to Peter Dutton — and the opposition leader can thank one man.
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Anthony Albanese has been re-elected for a second term as Prime Minister after delivering a crushing defeat to Peter Dutton.
After three years dominated by debates over the economy, cost of living, housing affordability and immigration — against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, the war in Gaza, Chinese aggression and Donald Trump’s shock re-election — voters have opted to give the PM a second shot.
Less than six months ago Mr Dutton was riding high on the prospect of making Mr Albanese a one-term PM, but a series of blunders and missed opportunities saw the Coalition’s polling lead evaporate over the course of the campaign.
But as the finger-pointing and recriminations within the opposition get underway, it’s hard to escape the Trump-sized elephant in the room.
Just as Canada’s Pierre Poilievre went from a 27-point lead to losing his own seat as the US President’s threats and mockery rallied the left, Australia’s conservatives were left similarly off-footed and floundering as Mr Trump’s tariff chaos turned their tentative Trumpian shift into a political liability.
Here’s how it all went wrong for Mr Dutton.
May 21, 2022: Albo elected PM
The 2022 federal election delivers a resounding defeat for the Coalition after nine years in power, with Labor picking up 77 seats in the House of Representatives to form a majority government for the first time since 2007. Defeated Prime Minister Scott Morrison resigns as Liberal leader and is replaced by Mr Dutton.
October 14, 2023: Voice referendum wipe-out
In a major personal blow for Mr Albanese, Labor’s Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum goes down in flames with 60 per cent of Australians voting no. A tearful PM declares that “while tonight’s result is not one that I had hoped for, I absolutely respect the decision of the Australian people”. The Liberal Party criticises Labor for holding the $450 million referendum during a cost-of-living crisis.
July 4, 2024: Payman defects from Labor
Western Australian Labor Senator Fatima Payman quits the party to sit on the crossbench after refusing to “toe the party line” on the issue of Palestinian statehood. Ms Payman, a former refugee from Afghanistan, accuses party officials of intimidation and “stand up [sic] tactics”. She announces the formation of her new party, Australia’s Voice (AV), on October 9.
August 25, 2024: Rennick resigns from LNP
Renegade Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick resigns from the Liberal National Party to contest the election as an independent, after being dumped from the ticket the previous year when he lost a preselection ballot to party treasurer Stuart Fraser. Mr Rennick, an outspoken critic of Covid vaccines, forms the People First Party (PFP).
August 14, 2024: Gaza refugee ban controversy
Mr Dutton sparks backlash after calling for a total ban on Palestinian refugees fleeing Gaza, telling Sky News “I don’t think people should be coming in from that war zone at all at the moment”. The government insists it will not compromise national security, while Mr Albanese accuses the opposition leader of “always looking to divide”. Other critics including independent MP Zali Stegall claim the proposal is “racist”.
October 14, 2024: Dutton overtakes Albo for first time
A shock Newspoll finds the Coalition now leads Labor 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis for the first time since the 2022 election, after months of being neck-and-neck.
November 6, 2024: Trump comment haunts Albo
Donald Trump returns to the White House in a landslide victory, with both leaders congratulating the incoming US President on his historic political comeback. Video resurfaces of comments made by Mr Albanese in 2017 saying Mr Trump “scares the s**t out of me”. Mr Dutton needles the PM in Question Time the next day, saying “we will make sure that President Trump is not somebody to be scared of but somebody that we can work very closely with”, while Mr Albanese tells reporters he feels no need to apologise to the President for his past comments.
November 7, 2024: PM speaks to Trump
Mr Albanese has his first phone call with Mr Trump to congratulate him on his re-election. “We talked about the importance of the Alliance, and the strength of the Australia-US relationship in security, AUKUS, trade and investment,” he writes on X. “I look forward to working together in the interests of both our countries.”
November 12, 2024: Rudd backed in ‘village idiot’ row
The PM rejects calls to fire Kevin Rudd as US Ambassador, after revelations he previously called the US President-elect a “village idiot”.
December, 2024: Parliament House meeting
Mr Dutton holds a strategy meeting with senior Liberals at Parliament House to map out the election strategy going into the New Year. Insiders later tell the Herald Sun there was a “cast iron agreement before Christmas that we would be going out in January election-ready”.
January 12, 2025: ‘Get Australia Back on Track’
The opposition leader launches his campaign in Melbourne with an homage to Mr Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, promising to “Get Australia Back on Track”. He unveils key priorities including accessing superannuation for first homebuyers, “rebalancing” migration, building nuclear power and cracking down on crime.
January 26, 2025: Coalition holds polling lead
The Coalition leads Labor 51-49 in Newspoll, which also reveals the lowest satisfaction ratings for Mr Albanese since taking office.
February 19, 2025: Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots
Billionaire mining magnate Clive Palmer announces his backing of the Trump-inspired Trumpet of Patriots, after failing his High Court bid to re-register the United Australia Party for the election. Trumpet of Patriots positions itself as an alternative to the major parties and encourages voters to preference Labor and the Coalition last.
February 22, 2025: $8 billion Medicare pledge
Declaring the election a referendum on Medicare, Mr Albanese announces free GP visits will be offered to the vast majority of Australians in a dramatic $8 billion investment. Mr Dutton seeks to neutralise a “Mediscare” repeat by upping the ante, pledging $9 billion.
March 7, 2025: Cyclone Alfred delays election
Tropical Cyclone Alfred bears down on southeast Queensland and northern NSW, derailing Mr Albanese’s plan to call an election for April 12 and forcing the government to go ahead with handing down the budget on March 25.
March 9, 2025: Voters doubt Libs ready
Newspoll holds steady for the Coalition at 51-49, but the findings show most voters, especially younger ones, do not believe the Dutton-led team is ready to govern.
March 18, 2025: Deportation ‘thought bubble’
Mr Dutton floats the idea of holding a referendum to give the government more powers to strip citizenship of terrorists and other serious criminals — only for Shadow Attorney-General Michaelia Cash to play down the prospect hours later. The PM brands it another “thought bubble”.
March 25, 2025: Budget lays out election battle
Treasurer Jim Chalmers hands down his pre-election federal budget headlined by cost-of-living relief measures, as the bottom line falls back into the red with a $27.6 billion deficit. Mr Chalmers says the budget is “our plan for a new generation of prosperity in a new world of uncertainty”.
March 27, 2025: Dutton’s fuel promise
Mr Dutton says the budget shows the election will be a “sliding doors moment for our nation” and that “our prosperity will be damaged for decades to come” if Labor is re-elected. He says he will repeal Labor’s tax cuts and instead halve the fuel excise for 12 months.
March 28, 2025: Election called
The election is officially called for May 3, with Mr Albanese visiting Governor-General Sam Mostyn to dissolve the 47th Parliament as the official five-week campaign kicks off. Polls suggest a hung parliament, with neither party looking like picking up 76 seats in the House, while betting markets favour a Labor win. Mr Albanese says the election will be a “choice between Labor’s plan to keep building or Peter Dutton’s promise to cut”. The opposition leader argues “we can’t afford three more years of Labor”.
March 28, 2025: Brutal poll savages PM
The same morning, a shock Redbridge poll published exclusively by news.com.au finds the majority of voters say they are worse off after three years under Labor, with 54 per cent unable to name a single thing Mr Albanese has done “that has made your life better in any way”.
March 30, 2025: Labor takes lead
The first Newspoll released during the election campaign shows Labor sneak ahead 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis, fuelled by a two-point drop in the Coalition’s primary vote to 37 per cent with Labor at 33 per cent.
April 1, 2025: Albo dodges Trump question
Mr Albanese, facing fresh pressure over US tariff negotiations and his failure to secure a phone call with Mr Trump, repeatedly refuses to answer a reporter’s question about what “scares the s**t out of you” about the US President and if he was “still frightened about those things”. The PM insists only that he has a “constructive relationship” with Mr Trump.
April 3, 2025: ‘Not the act of a friend’
Mr Trump makes his long-awaited “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement, confirming Australia will join other countries in being hit with 10 per cent levies on all imports to the US. Mr Albanese slams the move as “totally unwarranted” and “not the act of a friend” in a press conference in Melbourne. Mr Dutton tells reporters in Perth it is a “bad day for our country” and says he believes “we could have achieved a different outcome”.
April 7, 2025: Humiliating WFH backflip
In one of the most embarrassing campaign moments for the opposition, the Coalition spectacularly backflips on its push to force public servants back into the office five days a week, with Mr Dutton admitting he “made a mistake” and “got it wrong”. Labor had relentlessly attacked the policy, saying it would disproportionately hurt female workers, and polls showed it was deeply unpopular.
April 9, 2025: Albo wins first debate
The leaders trade barbs at the Sky News/Daily Telegraph People’s Forum in western Sydney, with Mr Albanese crowned the winner by the audience. The first debate is overshadowed by news Mr Dutton’s father suffered a heart attack that evening.
April 12, 2025: Price’s ‘MAGA’ moment
Northern Territory Senator Jacinta Price tells supporters in Perth that a Coalition government will “make Australia great again”. She later denies any connection to Mr Trump’s MAGA slogan, saying she “didn’t even realise I said that”, and accuses reporters of being “obsessed” with the US President.
April 13, 2025: Coalition falls further
The second Newspoll of the campaign sees Labor extend its two-party preferred lead to 52-48, as the Coalition’s primary vote falls to 35 per cent — now lower than before losing the 2022 election. It comes as both parties launch their official campaigns in Perth and Sydney.
April 14, 2025: Libs drop ‘diss track’
The Liberal Party releases a “diss track” attacking the PM over cost-of-living, sparking a short-lived rap rivalry after a Labor state branch publishes, then quickly removes its own diss track due to “offensive” language in the original version.
April 15, 2025: Indonesia-Russia military bombshell
The opposition leader comes under fire from the government after he appears to suggest the Indonesian President has confirmed a bombshell story published military website Janes claiming Russia lodged a request to base long-range aircraft in Papua.
April 16, 2025: Dutton admits ‘mistake’
Both sides claim victory in the ABC-hosted second leaders debate. Mr Dutton concedes his comments on Indonesia were a “mistake” and on Mr Trump, the opposition leader says as a nation “we trust the US” but “I don’t know the President”.
April 20, 2025: Trump chaos weighs on Dutton
Momentum continues to build for a Labor political resurrection thanks to the Trump tariff chaos and Medicare promises, with Labor ahead in Newspoll 52-48. On the question of who is trusted more to lead Australia through the Trump turbulence, 39 per cent back the PM and 32 per cent favour Mr Dutton.
April 22, 2025: ‘Personal abuse’ in third debate
Mr Dutton is narrowly judged the winner in the third debate, hosted by Nine, with the leaders accusing each other of “lying” and “personal abuse” in a heated slanging match.
April 27, 2025: Welcome to Country stoush
The final leaders debate on Seven sees the PM decisively declared the winner overall and on issues including cost of living and tax, however Mr Dutton gets “The Pulse” racing (not to be confused with getting a rise out of “The Worm”) as viewers support his comments that Welcome to Country ceremonies have gone too far.
April 28, 2025: Wong says Voice back on the menu
Days out from the election, Foreign Minister Penny Wong raises eyebrows by hinting the Voice to Parliament is an inevitability despite its overwhelming defeat in 2023, telling the Beetoota Advocate podcast “I think we’ll look back on it in 10 years’ time and it’ll be a bit like marriage equality”. Ms Wong later walks back her comments, telling SBS “the Voice is gone”.
May 2, 2025: Albo coasting to victory
The final Newspoll before election day puts Labor ahead of the Coalition 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
May 3, 2025: Dutton loses seat in wipeout
Mr Albanese is handily re-elected with a majority after a brutal night for the Coalition, with Mr Dutton losing his Brisbane seat of Dickson that he has held since 2001. Liberal Senator James Paterson concedes that the Trump factor was “significant”. “It was devastating in Canada for the Conservatives,” he tells the ABC. “I think it has been a factor here.”
Originally published as Moment it all went wrong for Peter Dutton
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