How the Voice to Parliament failed so spectacularly
Australians have overwhelmingly voted No in a devastating blow for the PM. A year ago, the Voice seemed like a sure thing. So how did it all go so wrong?
Australia has voted No.
The Indigenous Voice to Parliament proposal has been resoundingly defeated in Saturday’s referendum in a major blow to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
It took less than 90 minutes of counting after polls closed in the east for the result to be called by election watchers as a massive defeat for the Yes side.
The historic result comes after months of highly charged, often divisive campaigning, for a proposal that just a year ago appeared to be a sure thing with overwhelming public support.
So how did it all go so wrong?
Here is look back at the key events and polling that led to this point.
July 30, 2022: Draft question announced
Anthony Albanese uses his speech at the Garma Festival in northeast Arnhem Land to officially announce the question he wants to put to the public at the referendum. “I believe there is room in Australian hearts, for the Statement from the Heart,” he tells the audience.
August, 2022: Support for Voice strong
Several opinion polls suggest up to two-thirds of Australians support the Voice – Essential (65 per cent), JWS Research (65 per cent) and Resolve (63 per cent).
December 23, 2022: Nationals MP defects over Voice
Long-serving Nationals MP Andrew Gee quits to serve as an independent over his party’s opposition to the Voice, claiming it is “not reflective” of regional communities.
December 28, 2022: PM commits to referendum
The PM commits to holding a referendum within 12 months, saying he respects everyone’s right to make their own decision but “I encourage Australians to consider the generous and gracious request from First Nations people”.
January 8, 2023: Dutton demands details
Opposition leader Peter Dutton calls on Mr Albanese to provide further details, accusing the PM of treating the public “like mugs” and engaging in a “deliberate, tricky strategy” in his decision to “starve” people of information. Mr Dutton pens an open letter demanding answers to 15 questions about the Voice.
January 10, 2023: Albo warns of international reaction
Anthony Albanese hits suggests a No vote would not only hurt reconciliation in Australia but “it would also send a bad message in the way Australia is perceived internationally”. “This is an opportunity to unite the nation, the chance to move Australia forward together to show that we’re a mature nation,” he tells 2GB.
January 24, 2023: Alice Springs crime wave
Following days of headlines about a surge in youth crime and alcohol-fuelled violence in Alice Springs, the PM makes a flying visit to the troubled Central Australian town. The Opposition later criticises him for spending more time at the tennis in Melbourne.
January 26, 2023: Heated scenes on Australia Day
Thousands march in “Invasion Day” rallies across the country. In Melbourne, Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe takes to the stage to declare “this is war” and demand a treaty not a Voice. “Do we want to become an advisory body to the colonial system?” she says. The theme of Sydney’s rally is “sovereignty before voice”.
January 27, 2023: Albo dismisses ‘radicals’
Anthony Albanese says he’s confident the Voice will succeed despite the widespread criticism from Indigenous activists. The PM tells reporters he’s not surprised “radicals” are opposed given it is a “mainstream proposition”.
February 3, 2023: State and territory leaders back Voice
Australia’s premiers and chief ministers formally throw their support behind the Indigenous Voice to Parliament.
February 6, 2023: Lidia Thorpe quits Greens
Controversial Senator Lidia Thorpe quits the Greens to on the crossbench and lead “the black sovereignty movement”. The decision follows a split between Senator Thorpe and her colleagues over her reluctance to support the Voice proposal for constitutional recognition.
February 7, 2023: Indigenous Australians enrol in droves
The Australian Electoral Commission says more Indigenous Australians are enrolled to vote than ever before.
February 12, 2023: Mardis Gras crowd urged to vote Yes
Anthony Albanese becomes the first sitting Prime Minister to march in Sydney’s Mardi Gras, making an impassioned plea to the LGBTIQ+ community for their support on the Voice and likening the campaign to the fight for same-sex marriage.
February 20, 2023: Pearson will ‘fall silent’ if Voice fails
Indigenous activist Noel Pearson tells the ABC’s 7.30 is will be up to a new generation of leaders to find a path to reconciliation if the Voice fails and that “I will fall silent”.
February 23, 2023: Yes campaign launch
The Yes campaign officially launches at an event in Adelaide.
March 23, 2023: Final wording revealed
An emotional Anthony Albanese chokes up as he reveals the final wording for the referendum.
April 5, 2023: Liberals back No case
Peter Dutton announces the Liberal Party will campaign for the No case but will allow backbenchers a conscience vote.
April 14, 2023: Ley claims Anzac Day at risk
Senior Liberal frontbencher Sussan Ley doubles down on her claim that the Voice could spell the end of Anzac Day and Australia Day.
April 21, 2023: Official legal advice released
Australia’s solicitor-general advises that the Voice “will not fetter or impede the exercise of existing powers of parliament”.
May, 2023: Voice support begins to fall
After gradually trending down, opinion polls begin to show a marked decline in support for the Voice starting in May. RedBridge pollster Kos Samaras says this coincides more than 600,000 households hitting the “mortgage cliff” as fixed-rate loans roll over onto sharply rising variable rates.
May 2, 2023: Price slams AFL over Voice memo
Commentator Steve Price slams the AFL over a memo sent to clubs urging them to determine a position on the Voice.
May 17, 2023: Biggest monthly drop in support
Support for the Voice falls to 53 per cent in the Resolve poll, down from 58 per cent in April, the biggest monthly decline so far.
May 24, 2023: ScoMo warns of ‘crushing’ defeat
Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison gives a rare speech in parliament blasting Labor for gambling with Australia’s constitution, and warns a failed referendum would be “crushing to the soul” of Indigenous Australians.
May 22, 2023: Albo marks one year as PM
On the first anniversary of his election win, Anthony Albanese faces the challenge of turning around sliding support for the Voice.
May 24, 2023: ASIO warns of referendum violence
The head of Australia’s spy agency, Mike Burgess, warns the Voice referendum may incite violence due to conflicting views causing protests and counter-protests, but says there are no indications of foreign interference.
May 26, 2023: Sporting codes unite behind Voice
Twenty-one Australian sporting organisations, including all the major codes, unite in an extraordinary show of support for the Voice.
May 29, 2023: Albo brands opponents ‘chicken littles’
The PM takes aim at opponents of the Voice, branding them “chicken littles of the past” at a speech in Adelaide.
May 31, 2023: New WA Premier ‘front and centre’
Incoming WA Premier Roger Cook throws his support behind the Voice, saying he will be “front and centre” of the WA campaign.
June 13, 2023: First poll shows No in majority
Voice support hits a critical “tipping point” with the first poll showing No in the lead. The Resolve poll puts Yes on 49 per cent and No on 51 per cent. Other polls still have Yes ahead.
June 15, 2023: WA heritage laws spark concerns
Farmers, pastoralists and landowners in WA raise concerns about sweeping new Aboriginal cultural heritage laws coming into effect on July 1 after the changes were “slammed through” parliament by Labor.
June 19, 2023: Senate passes referendum bill
The Senate passes the Voice referendum legislation 51-19, following heated debate bookended by inflammatory speeches from One Nation leader Pauline Hanson and independent Senator Lidia Thorpe.
June 21, 2023: ‘Pay the Rent’ comments resurface
A series of unearthed tweets show leading Yes campaigner Thomas Mayo saying he hopes it will be a step towards getting non-Indigenous Aussies to “pay the rent” for living on Australian land.
June 24, 2023: PM brushes off falling polls
Anthony Albanese rubbishes suggestions support for the Voice is waning, despite new polling from JWS Research showing Yes slipping from 51 per cent to 46 per cent.
June 26, 2023: More bad polling
Newspoll shows support for the Voice falling another three points to 43 per cent, with No now leading in every state except NSW and Victoria.
July 6, 2023: Blanchett urges Aussies to vote Yes
Hollywood actress Cate Blanchett urges Aussies to vote Yes, but some label her comments on 7.30 “preachy”.
July 17, 2023: Women abandon Voice
Voice support falls further in Newspoll to 41 per cent, which also shows a sharp decline among women intending to vote Yes.
July 18, 2023: Yes and No pitches revealed
Both sides of the referendum divide outline their arguments in campaign pamphlets to be mailed to households.
August 2, 2023: Victorian councils blindsided by land deal
Ten Victorian councils covering an area half the size of Tasmania are blindsided by an Indigenous settlement agreement negotiated in secret by the Andrews government.
August 4, 2023: Uluru Statement controversy erupts
Sky News host Peta Credlin claims the “full” 2017 Uluru Statement from the Heart is not one page but 26, citing documents released under freedom-of-information. Anthony Albanese calls it a “QAnon”-style conspiracy theory.
August 6, 2023: Voice ‘almost unsalvageable’
A RedBridge poll, the first taken since the release of the Yes and No pamphlets, finds No ahead on 56 per cent with Yes branded “almost unsalvageable”.
August 8, 2023: WA dumps botched heritage laws
Western Australia announces it is abandoning its controversial new Aboriginal cultural heritage laws following a series of high-profile controversies that embarrassed the government and were seen to be hurting the Voice campaign.
August 9, 2023: Just one state voting Yes
A Guardian Essential poll shows Voice support on 43 per cent, with No ahead of Yes in every state except Victoria.
August 14, 2023: Qantas backs Yes campaign
Qantas boss Alan Joyce confirms the airline’s support for the Voice, unveiling the Yes logo on three aircraft at an event alongside the PM.
August 16, 2023: Albo ‘hasn’t read’ additional 25 pages
Anthony Albanese tells 3AW he hasn’t read the additional 25 pages of material attached to the Uluru Statement, asking “Why would I?”
August 20, 2023: ‘Violent black men’ speech denounced
Indigenous leaders denounce a comedian who mocked the Welcome to Country by labelling traditional owners “violent black men” at a conservative conference in Sydney.
August 23, 2023: No gets cross about ticks and crosses
The head of the AEC sparks confusion after suggesting that ticks will be counted as Yes votes but crosses will not be counted as Nos in the Voice referendum.
August 29, 2023: Meta suspends fact checker
Tech giant Meta suspends RMIT FactLab as a fact checker on Facebook after allegations it only targeted anti-Voice views.
August 30, 2023: Mundine ‘suicidal’ after abuse
Leading No campaigner Warren Mundine claims racial vilification used against him has driven him mad and “suicidal”.
August 30, 2023: Date of referendum announced
Anthony Albanese fires the starting gun on the six-week campaign, confirming the vote will be held on October 14.
September 3, 2023: Farnham lends classic song to Yes
Music legend John Farnham allows his classic song ‘You’re The Voice’ to become the official soundtrack of Yes, as the campaign launches a new TV ad showing key milestones in Australia’s history.
September 9, 2023: Labor voters abandon Albo
RedBridge polling shows Yes in a “free fall” plummeting to a new low of 39 per cent, with support also falling among Labor voters.
September 10, 2023: ‘Racist and stupid’ comments
Leading Yes campaigner Marcia Langton tells a forum in Bunbury that “racism” and “stupidity” are at the heart of the No side’s arguments, sparking several days of controversy.
September 13, 2023: No text messages spark outrage
Unsolicited text messages purporting to be from Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price encouraging people to vote No are sent to some Australians, sparking backlash on social media.
September 15, 2023: Host’s 25 ‘unanswered questions’
2GB host Ben Fordham lists 25 “unanswered questions” about the Voice in a lengthy rant taking aim at Anthony Albanese.
September 17, 2023: Massive Yes rallies across Australia
An estimated 200,000 people take part in “Walk for Yes” marches in cities across Australia on Sunday.
September 21, 2023: Ugly spitting incident
Footage of a volunteer for the Yes campaign spitting at a man during an altercation in Cooma that weekend goes viral.
September 21, 2023: AEC blasts ‘bonkers’ conspiracies
Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers unleashes over “tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy theorists” spreading misinformation over the Voice referendum.
September 21, 2023: AEC says result might take days
The AEC says Australians may not know the result of the referendum for days or even weeks, because a record number of people are set to vote via post.
September 28, 2023: Martin slams ‘dinosaurs and d**kheads’
Australian TV royalty Ray Martin rips into No voters, suggesting they are “dinosaurs and d**kheads” too lazy to perform a Google search. The veteran journalist later doubles down on the comments.
October 1, 2023: Voice not among top issues
RedBridge’s survey finds the Voice near the bottom of voter concerns, with cost-of-living by far the number one issue.
October 2, 2023: Rugby star backs Voice
Rugby league superstar Nathan Cleary reveals his support for the Voice, declaring, “No Voice means no choice. C’mon, Australia, vote Yes.”
October 3, 2023: Early voting opens
Early voting opens in polling stations across the country.
October 3, 2023: Yes signs spark AEC response
The Yes campaign is pinged by the AEC for putting up “potentially misleading” official-looking signs at polling places.
October 5, 2023: Neo-Nazis target Thorpe
Senator Lidia Thorpe explodes at the PM after she is tagged in a video posted online by far-right extremists, who burn an Indigenous flag and perform a Nazi salute.
October 6, 2023: Aquaman shares powerful video
Hollywood star Jason Momoa endorses the Yes campaign to his 17 million followers, sharing a viral video directed by Australian filmmaker Nash Edgerton featuring Indigenous musician and writer Adam Briggs.
October 9, 2023: Support drops to just 34 per cent
Newspoll shows Yes slumping a further two points to 34 per cent.
October 11, 2023: Dodson’s last-ditch plea
Senator Pat Dodson, known as the “father of reconciliation”, pleads with Australians to give First Nations peoples “the key to the car” and vote Yes.
October 11, 2023: Emotional Albo returns to Uluru
Anthony Albanese becomes emotional during a ceremony where Indigenous women present him with his own copy of the Uluru Statement from the Heart at the birthplace of the document.
October 12, 2023: Eleventh-hour poll points to defeat
Roy Morgan releases an eleventh-hour poll suggesting the Voice will be defeated with a majority of Australians, and a majority of states, set to vote No.
October 12, 2023: Yes campaigners say ‘far from over’
Leading Yes campaigners issue their final pleas to undecided voters, with Voice architect Professor Megan Davis declaring the campaign is “far from over”.
October 12, 2023: Four million votes cast
The AEC says approximately four million people have already voted and two million have applied for a postal vote.
October 13, 2023: Grant decries ‘mean country’
Former ABC presenter Stan Grant says on an overseas trip he kept referring to Australia as “mean”, as he decries the “noise” around the Voice debate.
October 13, 2023: No would take us back ‘65,000 years’
Indigenous elder Aunty Violet says a No vote in Saturday’s referendum would “take us back 65,000 years”.
October 13, 2023: Mundine booed at polling station
Leading No campaigner Nyunggai Warren Mundine faces heckling Yes supporters as he casts his vote at a pre-polling centre in Sydney.
October 14, 2023: Final poll shows swing to Yes
The final Newspoll before the referendum shows a late swing to the Yes vote, but still not enough to secure a majority in any state.
October 14, 2023: Australia votes No
Less than 90 minutes after the first polls close, the Voice to Parliament referendum is called as a massive defeat for Yes.
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