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Eleventh hour Voice poll shows swing to Yes campaign

A last minute poll shows a surprise uptick in votes for one campaign but results are expected to be skewed by lower voter turnout.

Recent Voice polling ‘completely dismantled’ Yes campaign argument

A late swing to the Yes vote will not deliver enough votes to secure a majority in any state according to the final Newspoll before the referendum.

But in a silver lining for campaigners, the poll suggests there has been a modest increase in support in the final week of the campaign.

Both sides are also warning that voter apathy and low voter turnout could skew the results, with up to one in five voters tipped to fail to even cast a vote.

Regardless of those wildcards, Newspoll predicts the Indigenous Voice to Parliament is set to fail.

A last minute poll shows and uptick in votes for the Yes campaign. (Photo by Martin Ollman/Getty Images)
A last minute poll shows and uptick in votes for the Yes campaign. (Photo by Martin Ollman/Getty Images)

To secure victory on Saturday night the Yes campaign must secure not only a national majority but a majority of six states.

Newspoll conducted for The Weekend Australian shows a three-point swing toward a Yes vote over the past week to 37 per cent.

But a clear majority - 57 per cent of surveyed voters - told pollsters they intend to vote No.

The number of undecided voters has dwindled to just 6 per cent of voters.

According to Newspoll, if this number broke equally the final result would be 60-40 against the Voice.

The poll shows that Victoria is the only state that could produce a majority Yes vote, followed by NSW and Tasmania.

However, the Newspoll predicts that the result could see not a single state where the Yes vote was ahead of the No vote.

The final Newspoll suggests the vote is closest in Victoria with 51 per cent opposed and 43 per cent in favour.

Australians will head to the poll on Saturday. (Photo by Jenny Evans/Getty Images)
Australians will head to the poll on Saturday. (Photo by Jenny Evans/Getty Images)

In NSW, the split was 54-41 while in Tasmania the No vote was 55 per cent compared with 38 per cent supporting the Yes case.

South Australia was against the Voice by 60 per cent to 33 per cent.

Liberal leader Peter Dutton has accused the Prime Minister of making a “catastrophic mistake” that doomed the Yes case to fail as voters prepare to head to the polls on Saturday.

Mr Dutton, who has led the campaign against the referendum with Liberal Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, said the Prime Minister had ultimately written a “cheque he couldn’t cash”.

“I think the Prime Minister made a catastrophic mistake in not providing the details to Australians,’’ Mr Dutton said.

“He’s instinctively won their hearts because Australians do want better outcomes for Indigenous Australians, but he hasn’t won their minds.

“And that’s the reality for a vast majority of Australians in my judgement, and I hope that people will vote No on the weekend not to reject the proposition of helping or recognising Indigenous Australians — quite the opposite.

“But people roundly have rejected the Voice proposal and the Prime Minister wrote a cheque that he couldn’t cash.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese broke down in tears during a ceremony with traditional owners at Uluru this week as he urged voters to back the Yes case.

“It’s extraordinary to think that the culture we are witness to here today stretches back 65,000 years,” he said.

“On Saturday, that culture is reaching out to Australia: a hand outstretched, for us to grasp in friendship. A chance to celebrate the richness of our shared history and to work together for a better future.”

Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/national/eleventh-hour-voice-poll-shows-swing-to-yes-campaign/news-story/b70168f5ab7e06f65d781474eee4a2f6