Inside story of what went wrong with the Coalition’s campaign

Months before the election was called, Peter Dutton was flying high – ahead in the polls and with all the momentum. Today, the Coalition’s lead has vanished. This is where it all went wrong.

Last December Peter Dutton held a meeting in his Parliament House office to map out how this election campaign was supposed to go.

Present were the senior members of his staff including his chief-of-staff Alex Dalgleish and his communications guru Nicole Chant, and on the party side federal Liberal Party director Andrew Hirst as well as his deputy Simon Berger.

Also present was the party’s pollster Mike Turner and former South Australian MP Jamie Briggs, who at the time was regarded as “Dutton’s guy” at the party’s HQ.

With Dutton flying high in the polls the meeting was held to agree to a strategy for the year ahead.

The group agreed that to maintain momentum they needed to start strongly in the New Year.

The plan was to start running positive ads on Dutton to reframe him as well as making early policy announcements.

Peter Dutton with the family dog Ralphie as he attended an informal Easter Sunday BBQ in Ipswich. Picture: Richard Dobson / NewsWire

“We had a cast iron agreement before Christmas that we would be going out in January election-ready,” according to one of the people present.

“And then we came back in January – policy wasn’t ready – they produced this big stupid document which needed to be a lot shorter and just basically an aspirational thing.”

The insider is referring to the “Let’s Get Australia Back on Track” of Dutton’s 12 priorities which the opposition leader released in Victoria in January.

“If you’ve got 12 of them it’s not priorities is it? Three or four are priorities – 12 is a shopping list.”

Peter Dutton holds the baby boy of Liberal candidate for the seat of Shortland Emma King as they meet local mothers at a cafe. Picture: Dan Peled/Getty Images

The intervening months have seen the Coalition’s lead disappear, to be replaced by a polling deficit it has only days to reverse.

Today there’s a question bewildered MPs are asking themselves, each other and even journalists.

“What do you think has gone wrong?”

Because if the polls are right then Anthony Albanese is odds on to be staying where he is – most probably in a minority – but with an outside chance of governing in his own right.

The turnaround can in part be attributed to the laser-like focus its campaign team has had on winning back the voters it needs.

It has also been helped by Albanese’s improved performance.

But Coalition insiders also know their predicament has also been caused by a failure to make the most of the momentum they had at Christmas which has been compounded by mistakes in the campaign.

Peter Dutton visits a petrol station – one of at least 15 during the campaign. Picture: Richard Dobson / NewsWire

“We’re unprepared for this election,” is the blunt assessment of a senior MP.

“Policy development – even campaign preparation – it just feels like we got surprised there’s an election on. How could that happen?”

According to a right-wing strategist who is already fielding calls from frustrated MPs “there’s going to be an almighty blame game” when the campaign dust settles.

“The campaign (staff) is going to say Peter didn’t have a good campaign – the policy wasn’t ready – and the parliamentary party will say there was no clear messaging, it wasn’t a well run campaign,” he said. “Two things can be right at once.”

It was not meant to be this way

Insiders say the campaign has been crippled by indecision with arguments raging over big policies like housing and tax right up until the moment they were released.

One MP sums up the backbench frustration: “All our policy has been late, it’s been too late to explain it, it’s been too late to convince the electorate and a lot of it has been done on the fly – you know that – like the fuel thing. It’s been great but it was done on the fly.

Insiders say the campaign has been crippled by indecision. Picture: Richard Dobson / Newswire

Insiders paint a portrait of a disconnect between Coalition campaign headquarters in Parramatta and the Leader of the Opposition which has crippled the campaign.

“He’s not happy with HQ at all. They’ve got trust issues with HQ and they’re not unfounded,” a campaign insider said.

The question of the policy making process is likely to take up a lot of space in any post mortem, with a lot of fingers pointing at shadow treasurer Angus Taylor.

Anthony Albanese shakes hands with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton during the fourth and final leaders' debate. Picture: Dan Peled/Getty Images

“Angus had three years to write a tax policy and he just didn’t do it,” another MP said.

“He was too busy running for the leadership.”

The question of the front bench’s work rate comes up again and again

“What have some of these shadows been doing? It’s a complete mystery to me,” a senior backbencher complains

Front benchers on the other hand pushback saying they were never given direction about what was expected of them.

“It’s hard to produce policy if you’re not given any parameters,” one said.

Shadows also complain they have been excluded from decision-making with a number saying for example they were blindsided by the disastrous work-from-home policy.

“It’s a one man show,” one insider complains.

In recent days reports have begun to emerge about splits between CCHQ staff and Dutton’s office, particularly Dalgleish, who has been Dutton’s chief of staff since he took over as Leader of the Opposition in 2022.

Critics of the Opposition Leader’s COS are not hard to find with accusations of secretiveness and tendency to operate through “divide and rule”.

In recent days reports have begun to emerge about splits between CCHQ staff and Dutton’s office. Picture: Dan Peled/Getty Images

Some of the complaints however are for things beyond his control – namely the narrowness of his CV.

“He’s been with Dutton since he started off as a 25-year-old, so there are going to be limitations – he doesn’t have the full totality of campaign experience,” a former Morrison government staffer observes.

Alex Dalgleish and Nicole Chant. Picture: Adam Head / NewsWire

But the bigger problem, he said, is the culture of Dutton’s office over which Dalgleigh presides.

“And this the more important one – I think they all operate in a bunker intentionally and their hesitation and their caution and the way they’re entirely guarded, infects everything. It’s not just their interaction with the gallery, it’s their interaction with the campaign team as well…. It’s Abbott v2 and it’s not healthy and it’s not smart.”

This hostility to the outside world has fostered group think an MP complains:

‘He’s surrounded himself with uber right wing advisers and blokes.’ Picture: Richard Dobson / NewsWire

“He’s surrounded himself with uber right wing advisers and blokes. It’s all monotone opinion in the leader’s office – this happened with ScoMo where no one challenges or puts an alternate view.”

The view of some in the campaign is that problems between the LOTO and CCHQ might have been better handled if Briggs was travelling with the leader as had been planned before the campaign started.

But for whatever reason – some blame Dalgleish, some blame Chant – Briggs hasn’t travelled with the leader – a decision several people regard as a mistake,

“I don’t know why Jamie isn’t on the plane – he should be,” a senior backbencher complains.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and former prime minister John Howard, Picture: NewsWire / Damian Shaw

The tension between Dutton and his office and the campaign staff has grown as the campaign has gone on insiders say.

“You can feel a little bit of the gathering Exhibit A for the post election review, Exhibit B to point the finger at HQ, to point the fingers at the shadows.

“There’s a little bit of the insurance policy stuff now.”

If there is a criticism to be made of Hirst and his deputy Simon Berger it is that it was a mistake not getting out earlier enough with the ad buy – especially given money has not been a problem at this election.

And they were warned by a number of people including the conservative ginger group Advance this was a mistake or as one of them puts it: “If you do not define yourself before your opponent does, you are f***ed.”

A Liberal insider puts it more politely: “You need to campaign in clear air.”

Jamie Briggs hasn’t travelled with the leader – a decision several people regard as a mistake

Why the ad buy has been so heavily back-ended to the last week of the campaign appears in part to be because that’s the way they’ve always done it.

“That would be an absolute very, very clear failure here … back in the 90s the main name of the game was TV and everyone watched the news and now we’re in 2025 – no one’s watching the news so you need to be out there longer making your case.”

Along with lack of preparation and holding back the spend, the biggest problem has been getting off message.

With the exception of the fuel excise, which Dutton has been disciplined about selling, the campaign has not been good at selling its wares.

“We announced LMITO – 85 per cent of people are getting a tax cut. How many times have you heard them go out there and talk about it? F**k all. F** ALL. It’s the same with a bunch of other policies. We announce them and think that’s going to do the job – it’s about repeatedly going out there and selling them.”

Peter Dutton with Nicole Chant. Picture: Gary Ramage

Indeed, so bad has the Opposition been at selling its policies, according to an ex-staffer turned strategist who has seen polling from a number of sources, with only a week until polling day voters are struggling to tell which sides’ promises are which.

“People are a bit confused – this campaign has lacked distinction. I can’t tell whose is whose and I can’t tell what’s what and that’s not good for Dutton.”

The strategist argues the weakness of the sell has compounded another problem which has only become clear as the campaign has continued – an over-reliance on the belief governments lose elections so it was best to adopt a small target.

“There’s no values basis to the offering to Australians. I don’t mean you get stuck in the culture wars but where is the ‘why we do this’ and therefore ‘why we’re different to Labor’ and why ‘there is an alternative for you to make things better’?” he said.

“If you just go through this cheque book transactional approach to a campaign don’t be surprised when the other guy has a bigger chequebook because he doesn’t care what he spends.”

An MP agrees: “That’s what’s happening in this election, if it’s about who can spend more government money – well who do you think is going to win?”

Originally published as Inside story of what went wrong with the Coalition’s campaign