New polling reveals shocking twist ahead of federal election
New polling has unearthed fresh insight into how the Australian public will approach the upcoming election.
Anthony Albanese is on the verge of securing a political resurrection according to the latest Newspoll and could be re-elected as Prime Minister with a surprise majority.
As the Prime Minister continues to pray for a political miracle after the failure of the Voice and countless predictions he won’t win enough seats to govern in his own right, the tide appears to be turning.
The Liberals have plunged to a lower primary vote than under Scott Morrison at the last election.
Newspoll, published exclusively in The Australian, suggests the Labor Party is methodically turning the tide with big-spending measures to restore bulk billing and offer modest income tax cuts.
The shock poll suggest the two issues guiding Mr Albanese’s political comeback – the chaos surrounding US president Donald Trump’s presidency and Medicare.
Despite the Liberal Party riding high in the polls in the lead up to the federal election, that lead appears to have crashed under the weight of a full-blown campaign as voters take a closer look at Peter Duton.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor’s primary vote over the past week lifting to its highest point in more than a year amid voter concerns over the chaos of the Trump presidency.
Labor’s primary vote rose a point to 34 per cent following a week dominated by the campaign launches and new initiatives to tackle the housing crisis including a 5 per cent deposit scheme for all first home buyers.
However, the Coalition primary vote has plunged to 35 per cent.
That’s 0.7 per cent lower than its May 2022 election result under Scott Morrison who was electoral poison in the wake of scandals over his trip to Hawaii and the Brittany Higgins allegations.
The two-party-preferred vote remains unchanged at 52-48 per cent with the Labor Party in the lead after a reversal of fortunes since the election was called.
Given the margin or error in any polls, those numbers suggest Mr Albanese may still be forced into minority government after May 3, but the prospect of a majority government is not out of reach.
Mr Dutton scores highly with voters when asked to consider who would be better to protect Australia’s defences with a margin of 35 per cent to 23 per cent for Mr Albanese.
The Liberal leader is also regarded as the better leader for growing Australia’s economy at 34 per cent to 29 per cent.
However, Mr Albanese was ahead of his rival when it came to providing quality healthcare – 42 per cent to 22 per cent – and slightly ahead on the question of helping with cost of living.
Blokes prefer Peter Dutton
Men favoured Mr Dutton over Mr Albanese on cost of living but women were significantly more likely to back the Prime Minister.
The Liberal Party’s shock decision to repeal Labor’s tax cuts also appears to have hurt the opposition.
Labor is regarded as better for lowering taxes – 33 per cent to 26 per cent.
Even on housing 29 per cent of voters nominated Mr Albanese and Labor as better for helping Australians buy their first home compared to 24 per cent for Mr Dutton and the Coalition who have proposed allowing voters to use their super and even tax deductions for their mortgage for eligible voters.
The Trump gap
The chaos sparked by Donald Trump’s tariff was initially regarded as a big political problem for Anthony Albanese.
But on the question of who was trusted more to lead Australia through the turbulence and uncertainty caused by Mr Trump, 39 per cent nominated Mr Albanese 32 per cent backed Mr Dutton.
Younger voters and women were significantly more likely to prefer Mr Albanese on this question, as were those with a university education.
What the Redbridge poll is saying
Last month, News.com.au reported that Labor had hit the lead on a two-party preferred basis in the first green shoots of a Labor comeback.
After months of retaining a lead over Labor on the two-party-preferred basis that will decide the outcome of the next election, something had changed.
Labor’s red line was headed up and it’s crossing the Liberals’ on a downward trajectory.
Labor hit the lead 51:49 for the first time in more than six months, according to the latest Redbridge polling.
Three reasons stood out as the best guesses for the change in Labor’s fortunes. The first is the interest rate cut.
While the Reserve Bank is independent of government, most voters find it hard to separate.
Fairly or unfairly, the decision of the RBA to cut interest rates has clearly prompted some voters to feel more slightly generous about the Albanese Government.
In dollar terms, the rate cut wasn’t a huge amount. However, it has allowed the government to reassure voters there are better days ahead – if US President Donald Trump’s trade war doesn’t send interest rates going up again.
The second reason for the improvement in the Prime Minister’s fortunes relates to the Labor Party’s golden charm: Medicare.
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There are many reasons why Bob Hawke and Gough Whitlam are revered by Labor – although Whitlam’s legacy is a far more complex affair – but Medicare hasn’t just improved Australians’ health.
It has provided political CPR to successive Labor leaders and shot kryptonite into the Liberal Party.
And so it is that after announcing the biggest injection into Medicare in decades last month, a dramatic $8 billion investment in Medicare, the Prime Minister’s fortunes are improving.
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