All-Star Mile: Expert tips, analysis for $5 million Caulfield feature

Can history repeat with after the Australian Guineas winner took out the inaugural All-Star Mile last year? Alligator Blood’s connections will be hoping so as the gun three-year-old steps out in the world’s richest mile race.

David Vandyke is reconciled to only the second defeat of Alligator Blood’s decorated career unless the cult hero produces a career-best performance in the $5 million All-Star Mile at Caulfield.

Pitted against nine fellow Group 1 winners in the world’s richest mile race, Alligator Blood is the ruling TAB $2.70 favourite, having stretched his winning sequence to five with Australian Guineas success.

But Vandyke concedes the quality of open-aged opposition and the fact Alligator Blood has either trialled or raced at least once a month since last May makes the three-year-old vulnerable.

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“I think he’s probably got to put in a career-best performance to win,” Vandyke said.

“I’ll walk away happy if he runs top three. I’m wary of most of them (rivals). There’s 10 Group 1 winners in the race.

“It’s next level from what he’s raced against in the past and it’s a great honour to have him in this field.

“It’s been an incredible preparation but this (All-Star Mile victory) would cap it off.”

David Vandyke with Alligator Blood after winning the Australian Guineas.

Returning to the scene of his sole defeat — a narrow Caulfield Guineas second to Super Seth — Alligator Blood will jump from barrier 10 after recovering from a draining last-start win.

“It normally takes him a week to get that spring back in his step,” Vandyke said.

“This week has gone well. His gallop was good Tuesday and he’s in good shape. He’s got better as the days have rolled on and he’ll be in pristine condition on Saturday.

“He’s a professional, he knows what he’s there to do. I expect him to be on his toes in the mounting yard and when the gates open.”

As usual, Alligator Blood will be supported by the gelding’s close-knit ownership but with the on-course presence of ailing Joy Andresz, an 11th victory from 12 starts will make the triumph even more special.

“Obviously, she’s (Joy) terminally ill and it will be great if he can perform well with her there,” Vandyke said.

Vandyke said Australian Guineas success meant the pressure was now off.

“That was a huge feather in his cap. It was the first Group 1 for the owners, first Group 1 for (jockey) Ryan (Maloney),” he said.

“The pressure is off and we’re really enjoying this week.

“I hope he lives up to that (TAB) price and wins at that price but I’d be happy with a top-three performance given the long, drawn-out preparation and the achievements he’s made.

“It’s next level racing. It’s an amazing field and I think this race will get Group 1 status eventually. It certainly deserves it.

“I don’t want to make any fancy predictions or get too optimistic because that would detract from the wonderful career he’s had so far.

Vandyke rated Kiwi champion Melody Belle the obvious danger.

“Melody Belle should get a nice run right behind us but, in saying that, they’re all going to need to be on their game because it’s a great field,” he said.

Meanwhile, all runners examined on Thursday have been cleared to run in the All-Star Mile following veterinary inspections with the exception of the Heart Of Puissance.

The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained galloper will be re-examined on Friday along with the two remaining horses Dalasan and Flit, who are still to be inspected.

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$5 MILLION ALL-STAR MILE (1600m)

CAULFIELD RACE 7, SATURDAY 4.45PM

Our expert panel comes together to find the All-Star Mile winner and according to those in the know it looks as if the Alligator might have the measure of his rivals again.

Check out what they like in the $5 million autumn feature.

Alligator Blood (right) at full throttle in the Australian Guineas.

THE FACTORS

Track: Good 4

Rail: Out 6m

Forecast: 19C, Showers.

THE FIELD

1. KOLDING (7) C Waller H Bowman 59kg $11

2. BLACK HEART BART (6) L Smith B Rawiller 59kg $41

3. FIERCE IMPACT (12) M Smith C Williams 59kg $10

4. REGAL POWER (3) G & A Williams W Pike 59kg $11

5. STREETS OF AVALON (11) S Nichols B Melham 59kg $31

6. SO SI BON (9) D & B Hayes & T Dabernig L Nolen 59kg $61

7. MR QUICKIE (4) P Stokes D Oliver 59kg $12

8. STAR MISSILE (2) G Eurell C Newitt 59kg $101

9. MELODY BELLE (5) J Richards O Bosson 57kg $5

10. ARISTIA (8) M Ellerton & S Zahra D Dunn 57kg $51

11. ALLIGATOR BLOOD (10) D Vandyke R Maloney 56kg $2.80

12. DALASAN (13) L Macdonald & A Gluyas J Kah 56kg $51

13. SUPERSTORM (14) G & A Williams M Zahra 56kg $12

14. HEART OF PUISSANCE (1) C Maher & D Eustace J Allen 56kg $41

15. FLIT (15) J Cummings D Lane 54kg $17

16E. SPANISH REEF (-) K Keys Scratched 57kg

17E. ADMIRALS JOKER (-) K Vella S Vella 59kg $81

18E. GOLD FIELDS (-) L McGill 59kg $151

MORE RACING ANALYSIS

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QUINNY’S TIPS: NO JOKE, ADMIRAL’S A BANKER

OFF AND RACING: DAVO’S TIPS FOR ROSEHILL

WEEKEND BEST BETS: BELLE OF THE BALL

THE SKINNY

1 KOLDING (barrier 7)

C Waller H Bowman 59kg $11

He won Australia’s third richest race last year when he won the $7.5 million Golden Eagle at Rosehill and he’s a major player in the fourth richest race. His two runs back from a spell have been adequate but blinkers go on first time and Chris Waller is sure to have him ready to fire.

2 BLACK HEART BART (6)

L Smith B Rawiller 59kg $41

Veteran who showed last spring with his win in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes that he’s still got plenty to offer. Useful first-up effort but he’s sure to lift Lindsey Smith has aimed at this and he’s got the best record of any runners at this track.

Popular racehorse Black Heart Bart might be a nine-year-old but he doesn’t know that.

3 FIERCE IMPACT (12)

M Smith C Williams 59kg $10

His trainer Matthew Smith was pragmatic at the barrier draw when he drew 12 pointing out he was also drawn wide in both of his Group 1 wins last year so he’s used to travelling three and four wide. He wasn’t far away from possibly the best horse in the land Te Akau Shark last start at Randwick. He loves a mile and he’s one of the leading chances.

4 REGAL POWER (3)

G & A Williams W Pike 59kg $11

Emerging Perth star. Looked home in the Australian Cup last week but was mown down by the in-form Fifty Stars. Willie Pike said he went too soon on him. The champion Perth hoop will be looking to make amends.

5 STREETS OF AVALON

(11) S Nichols B Melham 59kg $31

Tough honest galloper who took his game to another level when he took advantage of the on-speed bias to win the Futurity Stakes last start and gain a golden ticket into this race. He’s struggled at 1600m in the past. His trainer Shane Nichols has tinkered with his gear taking the blinkers off and putting the winkers on in a bid to get him to settle better to run 1600m.

6 SO SI BON (9)

D & B Hayes & T Dabernig L Nolen 59kg $61

Enigmatic galloper who wasn’t disgraced at his last start when he finished fourth in the Blamey Stakes, where he led and tired. Would need everything to go his way to win this but can place if he got the right breaks.

Mr Quickie has an exceptional record when fresh.

7 MR QUICKIE (4)

P Stokes D Oliver 59kg $12

He’s probably the wildcard factor. In a bold move his connections have targeted this race first-up. Their reasoning is that he flies fresh. At his first-up run last campaign he finished third in the Makybe Diva Stakes and was a long way from peak fitness that day.

8 STAR MISSILE (2)
G Eurell C Newitt 59kg $101

He’s going to have 200 of his 800 owners on course to cheer him on. Nothing went right when he finished last at the Valley last start with a big weight in restricted company. Still this is a quantum leap.

9 MELODY BELLE (5)

J Richards O Bosson 57kg $5

Champion Kiwi mare who has won 10 Group 1 races. Showed her quality last spring in Melbourne where she won the Empire Rose Stakes and then finished an unlucky second in the Mackinnon Stakes. Punters are warming to her as she loves 1600m and also wet tracks. She’s a major player.

10 ARISTIA (8)

M Ellerton & S Zahra D Dunn 57kg $51

Worked home nicely when fifth behind Greysful Glamour in the Mannerism Stakes. As she showed with her second behind Melody Belle last spring at Group 1 level she can mix at this level. One for the multiples.

11 ALLIGATOR BLOOD (10)

D Vandyke R Maloney 56kg $2.80

Amazing galloper who has only tasted defeat once from 11 starts and that was in the Caulfield Guineas when he was grabbed on the line by the swooper Super Seth. He’s been in work for ages but he’s maintaining his form. He had something up his sleeve when he won the Australian Guineas so he’s not going backwards.

Alligator Blood charges to victory in the Australian Guineas.

12 DALASAN (13)

L Macdonald & A Gluyas J Kah 56kg $51

He can switch on and off in his races which usually brings about his undoing. He’s given glimpses that he has the talent to win a major race. He’s one for the multiples at big odds.

13 SUPERSTORM (14)

G & A Williams M Zahra 56kg $12

Perth galloper who flew home for second in the Australian Guineas. He’s only had seven starts and he’s got amazing potential. If the pressure goes on and the track is playing to swoopers he’s one of the chances.

14 HEART OF PUISSANCE (1)

C Maher & D Eustace J Allen 56kg $41

He’s the least experienced runner in the race and he’s also won the least amount of prizemoney but he’s got a stack of potential. He’s a rating 72 horse which is 24 points behind the second last rated horse so he’s way out of his grade but the stable is confident he’s going to run a big race.

15 FLIT (15) J Cummings D Lane 54kg $17

Godolphin chose to run her in this in front of Avilius and last year’s placegetter Alizee. She won her first-up run in brilliant style at Group 2 level at Randwick before slightly disappointing effort in the Group 1 Surround Stakes also there. She won the Thousand Guineas this track and distance last year.

16 SPANISH REEF (1st emerg) Scratched

17 ADMIRAL’S JOKER (2nd emerg)

18 GOLD FIELDS (3rd emerg)

THE SPEED

The likely front runners ALLIGATOR BLOOD and STREETS OF AVALON are drawn next to each other and are likely to work across. ARISTIA and KOLDING are likely to settle behind them.

HISTORY

Only one running of the All-Star Mile and it was won by the Australian Guineas winner in Mystic Journey who also started favourite. ALLIGATOR BLOOD will be looking to keep both of those trends going.

STRATEGY

ALLIGATOR BLOOD is the horse to beat so place 70% of stake on him with a back-up 30% on MELODY BELLE.

THE TRAINER

DAVID VANDYKE

“He keeps astounding us. He’s been up since last May and he’s in as good a shape as we’ve seen him so we’re looking forward to Saturday.”

Melody Belle will appreciate the softer conditions with the forecast rain.

TIPS

MICHAEL MANLEY (Herald Sun)

1. ALLIGATOR BLOOD

2. Melody Belle

3. Kolding

4. Fierce Impact

LEO SCHLINK (Herald Sun)

1. REGAL POWER

2. Melody Belle

3. Alligator Blood

4. Fierce Impact

GLENN McFARLANE (Herald Sun)

1. ALLIGATOR BLOOD

2. Melody Belle

3. Mr Quickie

4. Regal Power

SIMON MOY (NewsRacing)

1. MELODY BELLE

2. Kolding

3. Alligator Blood

4. Regal Power

CHRIS VERNUCCIO (NewsRacing)

1. ALLIGATOR BLOOD

2. Melody Belle

3. Fierce Impact

4. Superstorm

NICK QUINN (TAB)

1. ALLIGATOR BLOOD

2. Melody Belle

3. Mr Quickie

4. Regal Power

DAVID GATELY (TAB)

1. SUPERSTORM

2. Regal Power

3. Alligator Blood

4. Flit

Originally published as All-Star Mile: Expert tips, analysis for $5 million Caulfield feature