Rosehill races: Brad Davidson’s tips and extended preview
Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for Rosehill Gardens. Plus, Ray Thomas breaks down the Coolmore Classic.
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Sky Racing expert Brad Davidson is convinced the John Thompson-trained mare Sweet Deal has the best form leading into the Group 1 Coolmore Classic at Rosehill Gardens.
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ROSEHILL GARDENS
Track: Soft 7. Rail: True.
R1 (12.45pm): IRON JACK HCP (1900m)
OVERVIEW: I think White Boots is a good a chance as any of these and the great thing about him is he rarely runs a bad race. He needs a bit of luck early but should go back and run on. I like the booking of Tim Clark for Dylan’s Romance. If he can find the front and find a nice rhythm, he will be hard to run down. Welsh Legend chased home subsequent Canberra Cup winner Mugatoo last start and that’s good form for this. She gets in light here. Yonkers has upside but I thought he was short enough in early betting all the same.
BETTING ADVICE: WHITE BOOTS and DYLAN’S ROMANCE should run well at odds.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Cyber Intervention $7-$6.50 ($500 @ $6.50 TWICE), Zoffany’s Lad $16-$13 ($2,000 x $5,000 e/w @ $16/$5)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R2 (1.25pm): PAGO PAGO STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Open race. Ilovemyself has to be respected off the debut win in Melbourne. He was held up and charged to the line when finally clear the last 150m but he was entitled to run on and the overall time was just fair. Aim had no luck last start and the only query is whether he is looking for further now? Kumasi ran good time to score on debut but second placegetter Deniki didn’t exactly frank the form on Wednesday. There’s no reason he won’t measure up here though. Prague was disappointing last start but did SP short, while Mission River pulled up lame last start and his form prior was sound for this. Osamu also has each-way claims.
BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to ILOVEMYSELF.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Aim $3.50-$4, Prague $6-$8, Ilovemyself $3-$2.80-$2.90 ($1,500 @ 2.90, $400 @ $2.90 TWICE), Argenteus $11-$9 ($750 e/w @ $10/$2.70)
R3 (2pm): MAGIC NIGHT STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Even race. Stellar Pauline should get a good run behind the speed but I’m not sure I want to be diving in at $3.10 all the same. She led last start and I think that backfired so expect her to take a sit here. Kaakit Akit won well on debut but she did get a soft lead and I think she will have a lot of company up on speed in this race. Dubai Star won well fresh and the stable said she wasn’t wound up for that race. Sancy trialled well but will need luck from the draw, while Dottie Dee was good in Adelaide on debut and should be thereabouts as well.
BETTING ADVICE: STELLAR PAULINE the horse to beat but she is short enough at $3.10.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Stellar Pauline $3.60-$2.90
R4 (2.35pm): MAURICE MCCARTEN STAKES (1100m)
OVERVIEW: Tricky race with many of these resuming. Soothing can be a bit hard to catch but she has a sharp turn of foot on her day and will be closing hard. Star Of The Seas gets the blinkers on but there is still a query as to whether 1100m is a touch sharp for him albeit that he is first up? Tactical Advantage will be storming home late, while Greyworm won impressively first-up but stays at 1100m and I doubt he leads this time. Zoustyle should lead and prove hard to run down but $3.50 seems short enough all the same. I don’t think Miss Xfactor is hopeless at $26 either. She ran a great race fresh and may have improved this time in.
BETTING ADVICE: SOOTHING perhaps? Tough race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Greyworm $3.90-$4-$3.60 ($6,000 @ $4), Zoustyle $3.50-$3.60-$3.30 ($1,400 @ $3.60, $600 @ $3.50, $500 @ $3.40)
R5 (3.10pm): PHAR LAP STAKES (1500m)
OVERVIEW: Exciting rematch between two exciting fillies in Funstar and Probabeel. Probabeel got the better of Funstar fresh but she had race fitness on her side and Funstar went right back from the wide draw. I expect Funstar to go forward from the wide draw this time and be hard to get past late. Probabeel will be savaging the line again and there shouldn’t be much between these exciting fillies again. Spend looks next best if Subpoenaed goes to Kembla Grange on Friday as I expect.
BETTING ADVICE: FUNSTAR to turn the tables on PROBABEEL.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Funstar $1.95-$2-$1.95 ($1,000 @ $2, $1,000 @ $1.90, $700 @ $1.90)
R6 (3.45pm): AJAX STAKES (1500m)
OVERVIEW: Tough race as the market suggests. Most of these come through the same race where Quackerjack saluted narrowly from Vegadaze over 1300m. That was an absolute sit and sprint though but will that eventuate again? It all depends on whether Desert Lord wants to add pressure and try to lead or whether he is happy to take a sit. Imaging was well supported in that 1300m event and he pulled up lame after copping a nasty bump in the straight. He might be the value here. Quackerjack meets most of these worse off at the weights but will appreciate 1500m and gets a good run on speed. Cascadian copped a bump last start and that was a forgive run. His effort prior was super. The 1500m suits. Rock, I Am Superman and Scarlet Dream are all capable.
BETTING ADVICE: IMAGING not the worst at odds but QUACKERJACK will be hard to catch.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Rock $8-$5.50 ($400 @ $7), Ringerdingding $14-$15-$12 ($2,000 x $5,000 e/w @ $15/$4.40)
R7 (4.25pm): COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500m)
OVERVIEW: Great race for the mares as usual. It’s hard to go past Sweet Deal and she bolted in fresh and then was clearly the best run of the race second up when taken on in front before being narrowly beaten. She should spear forward and I guess it’s just the last 50m that is the query. Pohutukawa is ticking over well and she should be able to park up a touch closer from the good draw. She had to go right back last start. Dawn Dawn appears some value at 14s even though the race was set up for her last start. Noire had no luck last start and is a chance at odds, while Invincible Gem, El Dorado Dreaming, Delectation Girl, Spanish Whisper Sweet Scandal, Benitoite and Acting are all capable.
BETTING ADVICE: SWEET DEAL the horse they all have to beat.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sweet Deal $4.80-$4.40, Sylvia’s Mother $6-$4.20 ($400 @ $6)
R8 (5.05pm): SKY HIGH STAKES (2000m)
OVERVIEW: I’ll stick with Master Of Wine after his dynamic first-up win. The step up from 1400m to 2000m with three weeks between runs is not ideal but he looks a talent. Mustajeer was outstanding first-up in the Parramatta Cup and he looks to have come back well this prep. Danceteria gets the chance to show what he has to offer at 2000m (Enable form lines at this distance!) and forget he went around fresh in a sit and sprint race. Watch for him late in the piece.
BETTING ADVICE: MASTER OF WINE the horse to beat but DANCETERIA might get out to a silly price.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Come Play With Me $41-$51-$34 ($1,000 x $3,000 e/w @ $51/$10), Master Of Wine $2.70-$2.60 ($5,000 @ $2.70)
R9 (5.45pm): CERRONE HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: He has bigger fish to fry this autumn but I see no reason why Something Fast won’t be really competitive first-up. He should map to sit behind this solid speed and fitness levels are the only query. We haven’t seen him since a trial back in early February. Royal Celebration should appreciate 1400m and he has been looking for this trip. The query is he has been overracing this prep but cover from the low draw should help him relax to some degree. Positive Peace is flying for the Bjorn Baker yard and I guess the query now is whether she wants a touch further. She can win again though. Roheryn also has each-way claims, while Designated isn’t hopeless with no weight on his back.
BETTING ADVICE: This race revolves around the fitness of SOMETHING FAST. Is he ready or does he need a run? Monitor moves after the yard.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Roheryn $8-$8.50-$8 ($600 @ $8.50), Positive Peace $4.60-$4 ($6,000 @ $4.40, $3,192 @ $4.40), Accession $6-$5.50 ($1,000 @ $6), Designated $26-$19
RAY THOMAS’S FEATURE FOCUS
COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500m)
THE FIELD
1. Invincible Gem (16) Rachel King 58kg
2. Sweet Deal (9) N Rawiller 57.5kg
3. Dawn Dawn (10) B Avdulla 56.5kg
4. El Dorado Dreaming (4) J R Collett 55.5kg
5. Pohutukawa (6) J B McDonald 55.5kg
6. Con Te Partiro (5) Tim Clark 55kg
7. Sylvia’s Mother (8) Tommy Berry 55kg
8. Delectation Girl (2) A Mallyon 54.5kg
9. Noire (14) Ms K O’Hara 54.5kg
10. Oceanex (11) M J Walker 54.5kg
11. Spanish Whisper (3) T Marquand 54.5kg
12. Miss Fabulass (12) K Mc Evoy 54kg
13. Fiesta (7) Jye McNeil 53kg
14. Sweet Scandal (15) R Dolan (a) 52kg
15. Benitoite (1) A Adkins 51kg
16. Acting (13) J Ford 50kg
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
THE HISTORY
Guy Walter Stakes-Coolmore Classic: Danni Martine (2005)
Millie Fox Stakes-Coolmore Classic: Daysee Doom (2018), Chlorophyll (1996)
Flight Stakes-Coolmore Classic: Assertive Lass (1997), Bounding Away (1987)
Coolmore Classic-Queen Of The Turf Stakes: Appearance (2013), Camino Rose (1999), Favoured (1974)
THE FAVOURITES
The Coolmore Classic has been a graveyard for favourites with only one scoring in the last decade – Aloha as $6 equal favourite in 2011. In the last eight years, only one winner has been at single figure odds when Steps In Time scored at $8 in 2014. The recent winners have been boilover results with Heavens Above at $26 (2017), Daysee Doom $21 (2018) and Dixie Blossoms $21 (2019).
THE KEY LEAD-UP RACES
Millie Fox Stakes, Rosehill, February 22
Savatiano dominated this race, sprinting her rivals to win by nearly three lengths. The merit of this effort was underlined last week when she ran second in the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes. Savatiano is not in the Coolmore but her form gives rival trainer Kris Lees some encouragement as his mares Invincible Gem (third), Delectation Girl (fifth) and Miss Fabulass (sixth) finished behind her in the Millie Fox. Invincible Gem was first-up off her Villiers Stakes second placing and will improve, Delectation Girl ran a very good second in the Newcastle Newmarket last Friday, and Miss Fabulass will be fitter and better suited in a fast-run race.
Guy Walter Stakes, Randwick, February 29
Dawn Dawn and Pohutukawa were second last and last respectively on the turn but finished fast down the centre of the track, swamping leader Sweet Deal on the line. Dawn Dawn won narrowly from Sweet Deal with Pohutukawa a close third. Sweet Scandal was under pressure on the turn but rallied to run fourth while Noire’s fifth was a very good effort given the trouble she struck at the top of the straight. Con Te Partiro faded in the run home to run sixth with Fiesta dropping out to run eights.
THE BARRIERS
Inside barriers are advantageous from the 1500m start as evidenced by recent results with eight of the last nine winners starting from no wider than gate nine. The exception was Daysee Doom who came out of barrier 14, enduring a tough run but was still able to win. However, over the last 30 years, barrier 14 has been the most successful starting position with five wins.
SPEED MAP
Con Te Partiro has drawn barrier five and probably looks to find the rail to take up the early lead. Fiesta will go forward but her rider is likely to look for cover. Sweet Deal has drawn the middle of the field and is a mare who likes to settle on speed in her races. There is pace out drawn wide, mainly with Acting and maybe Sweet Scandal. I expect Acting to come across and possibly lead or settle outside Con Te Partiro in front. Pace should be genuine early but tempo likely to ease mid-race.
TRAINERS
The late Max Lees holds the race training record with five wins from Shindig (1998), Chlorophyll (1996), Flitter (1995), Quicksilver Cindy (1991) and Satin Sand (1986). His son, Kris, is chasing his first Coolmore and has four chances with Invincible Gem, El Dorado Dreaming, Miss Fabulass and Delectation Girl. Gai Waterhouse, who trains in partnership with Adrian Bott, is aiming for a record-equalling fifth win from Con Te Partiro.
JOCKEYS
Hall of Famer Jim Cassidy has the Coolmore riding record with four wins from Steps In Time (2014), Shamekha (2004), Flitter (1995) and Satin Sand (1986). The only jockeys with rides in tomorrow’s Coolmore to have won the race previously are Kathy O’Hara (Noire) who rode Ofcourseican to win in 2012 and Andrew Adkins (Benitoite) on Daysee Doom two years ago.
THE VERDICT
In a typically open Coolmore Classic, equal favourites Sylvia’s Mother and Sweet Deal might be unproven at this trip but they can fight out the finish of the big race. Sylvia’s Mother comes off two impressive Group 3 wins at Caulfield and Flemington last month, finishing strongly in both races. Talented mare with an admirable will-to-win.
Sweet Deal has never been in better form. She won the Triscay Stakes brilliantly then looked home in the Guy Walter Stakes only to be run down by Dawn Dawn right on the line. Sweet Deal does go up 2kg for her narrow loss but she will settle on speed, controlling the race and will be hard to beat again.
Dawn Dawn and Pohutukawa gave away a huge lead to Sweet Deal from the turn last start but they powered home at the end of 1400m with the former scoring a narrow win. Dawn Dawn is very genuine and 1500m is issue for her. Pohutukawa ran the closest of thirds last start and will enjoy the extra distance.
Miss Fabulass has loads of natural ability and if the pace is solid, she is capable of ripping home over the top of her rivals at huge odds. Noire had zero luck in the Guy Walter Stakes and is another over the odds. She will need luck from her wide draw but the mare is overdue. Delectation Girl ran a blinder in the Newcastle Newmarket and rates highly while Sweet Scandal is an each way chance.
RAY’S TIPS
1. SYLVIA’S MOTHER
2. Sweet Deal
3. Dawn Dawn
4. Pohutukawa
Best Outsider: Miss Fabulass